Cinco de Mayo weekend is approaching. That can only mean one thing: Canelo Alvarez is back in the ring. This time, he will face a young Mexican opponent named Jaime Munguia.
Does this young gun have what it takes to defeat the king? Or will Canelo reign as the face of the sport of boxing? This Premier Boxing Champions event will be streamed live on Prime PPV, along with many other platforms where it can be purchased.
Just two weeks ago, the boxing world witnessed a major upset by Ryan Garcia. Given the recent news about failed drug tests, victory is in jeopardy. Betting sites are treating Jamie as an underdog in the +350 to +410 range.
The boxing podcaster believes those are fair odds and feels that people in the boxing world are looking for a major upset for specific reasons. The main reason for that is the fact that Canelo won't be fighting David Benavidez on May 4th.
Don't get me wrong, I think Munguia is a solid boxer who could test Alvarez to some degree anyway. For a long time, especially after a close victory over Dennis Hogan in 2019, Jaime's career seemed to be stuck in the middle, facing mediocre opponents.
That was until Jaime took an elderly but legitimate test with Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Sergi has lost a lot of fights, and the outcome of his fight against Gennady Golovkin will be debatable.
To his credit, Munguia came through in the clutch and scored a 12th round knockdown with body shots to seal the deal. And to be fair, it's not like Canelo isn't getting the benefit of the doubt with a close decision.
Earlier this year, Jamie had an impressive performance stopping John Ryder in nine rounds. That's another reason why many media members and avid boxing fans think Jaime is very good at beating Canelo. The problem with that theory is that even though Canelo wasn't able to end the fight quickly against Ryder, he still beat him soundly.
At some point, fighters will fully show their age, and that will have a profound impact on how they fight. Yes, Canelo is no longer at his peak, but considering the age he turned pro, that's not all that surprising. It's no secret that Canelo likes to fight at a slower pace, often taking a break from rounds until he gets a second wind, or even looking a little tired. And that's where Jamie, a young and hungry boxer, needs to pounce.
That doesn't mean Munguia should approach this game like a Tasmanian devil and completely forget respect for his elders. That means he needs to prove that his chin is solid and his punch rate remains fairly high. It will be essential to close the distance with a jab. In any case, Munguia will have to force his way inside, which will be a big deal.
Harming Canelo will be difficult but necessary to get the decision, which leads to the next point. Beating Canelo on the judges' scorecards is going to be tough. Even Floyd Mayweather has seen a draw on the scorecards, taking on Alvarez in 2013. It's almost impossible to score a knockdown. What was noticeable in the first and second fights against Golovkin was GGG's lack of body punches.
Will Munguia be able to target Canelo's body? That would allow him to punch holes in Canelo's defense at the top and land the type of punches that would catch the judges' attention.
The answer is probably no, and it comes down to Canelo's counterpunches and head movement. Canelo is at a higher level in terms of skill and we know there is a huge difference in night fight experience between him and Jaime in that category. If Munguia is too aggressive, Canelo will make him pay. Canelo would win most of the rounds if Munguia fought in the center of the ring, only trying to drop bombs on his head.
Going back to the jab and bodywork, some bodywork is important for Jamie to actually be able to apply pressure smarter. That would either put Canelo on the ropes or force Alvarez into a lateral move. By the way, Canelo could adapt to fighting and winning in such a scenario, but at least that would be the young lion's best path to victory. Another important point is that both fighters have plenty of pop when it comes to power punches at 168.
There will be moments in this fight where you'll see great work from Jaime Munguia, not just during the round, but throughout the round. But ultimately, I hope Canelo finds his moment and moves away from Munguia for a clean, entertaining fight.
If Canelo can land a number of flashes in the early rounds, a TKO could be in the cards. In that case, there is a possibility of suspension from the penalty angle. But this boxing junkie doesn't believe Canelo will really go for it and land a bunch of punches unless Jaime is really in a pinch.
My official prediction is unanimously Canelo Alvarez.
Podcast link: http://tobtr.com/12335584
Side note: Don't forget to set your alarms for the return of Naoya Inoue and a deep card broadcast live from Japan on ESPN+ on Monday morning.
By Chris Carlson Host/Producer of The Rope A Dope Radio Podcast Available at www.blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperradio Follow us on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio