The latest change in the NBA's relationship with Warner Bros. Discovery is the prospect of the league creating a fourth rights package that would allow WBD to maintain at least some sort of ties.
The “fourth package” option, once considered such a remote possibility that it wasn't even worth mentioning, has been mentioned in varying degrees of depth. The Wall Street Journal, pack and Sports Business Journal Over the past week, and that's no coincidence, WBD officials have said they are “open to” a fourth package. John Orlando of packGiven the NBA's apparent opposition to additional contracts, one can assume that any sources hinting at the possibility are coming exclusively from that direction.
For WBD, the fourth package is currently the only way to preserve some rights without prohibitive costs and without the need for legal remedies.
What would such a package include? The NBA isn't going to remove game inventory from its top three packages, but that's to be expected. Without it, the league would have to create new inventory from scratch.
One option, Orlando said, could be to build a new package out of “local game rights for a few teams.” Last season, NBA teams under contract with Diamond Sports Group were able to sell 10 games produced by Bally Sports to local over-the-air affiliates in their markets. (That was part of a one-time deal between the NBA and Diamond Sports that would have seen all of Diamond's RSN rights revert to the NBA after the season ended, but was ultimately scrapped.) It's unclear whether the NBA or its teams would be able to reclaim similar rights from Diamond in the future, much less from other RSNs, but this would be one way to fill out a potential fourth package.
Assume the fourth package consists of games pulled from Diamond Sports. Only half the league has a contract with Diamond, and that list doesn't include some of the highest-profile teams. If the games include non-Diamond teams, such as the Lakers (Spectrum SportsNet), Knicks (MSG), or Warriors (Comcast), TNT's coverage would certainly be blacked out in those markets. There are only so many games that can be exclusively or coexist on national TV, and the top three packages would certainly cover all of them. In essence, TNT's NBA package is not much different than its Tuesday night MLB package, which consists primarily of games subject to local blackouts. (It's worth wondering whether the Diamond-provided feeds would be exclusive to TNT, which would be an advantage for the fourth-tier “D” package, or would simply coexist.)
The regular season is one area of concern. It's inconceivable that the NBA doesn't already allocate postseason slots to their top three packages. Even games currently on NBA TV are likely allocated to ESPN, Comcast, or Amazon. With all four rounds of playoffs being best of seven, the NBA is not in a position to create additional slots. Regular season NBA games are fine, but the postseason is where the league gets the most value.
So TNT's bid in this scenario would be to air one night of regular season games each week (featuring a limited number of teams or numerous local blackouts) and zero postseason games. Perhaps WBD could find a way to secure NBA All-Star Weekend in such a deal. pack It was reported last month that the league was seeking “clarification” on rights for mid-season events, but this will likely be the only marquee event for which there is no certainty. Either way, WBD will continue its relationship with the NBA, but with significantly reduced inventory and likely significantly reduced viewership. Perhaps that will be enough for TNT to maintain its current rates with distributors, but that seems unlikely.
Beyond the above, it's unclear what other options WBD has available. One Hail Mary would be some sort of joint deal with one of the other partners, even with a fourth package standard that is a Hail Mary in itself. Amazon has been mentioned as a potential landing spot for TNT's talent if WBD loses its rights, and there's even speculation that Amazon could turn to TNT to produce its NBA telecasts, similar to NBC's NBA broadcasts. Sunday Night Football Production Team Thursday Night Football Game. Probably the production team of TNT ( Behind the scenes of the NBA Studio crews — Amazon is allowing TNT to simulcast some of its regular season programming and some of its playoff games.
To be clear, that's highly unlikely, but there really isn't a “likely” scenario in which WBD would retain the rights at this point other than paying roughly $3 billion a year for the “B” package they currently own, and other suggestions like suing the league, matching Amazon's “C” package, or creating a fourth package reek of desperation.
Discussions of a fourth package seem to be coming from WBD's side, but the idea seems more beneficial to the NBA than WBD. The NBA is said to be concerned about weakening its three other broadcast deals, but I don't see how ESPN, Amazon, or Comcast would be seriously threatened by TNT airing non-exclusive games one night a week. The concern about having too many broadcasters showing the games is real, but in an era where even the NFL is spreading its content to as many broadcasters as possible, it feels a bit hollow. To get hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue per year, maybe even a billion if WBD is especially desperate, seems like a risk worth taking. The NBA could essentially keep WBD (and its wild card leader) in WBD. David Zaslav) as partners, but keep a certain distance. With the uncertain future of the media industry, it's certainly worth not wasting money.
It's easy to see why the idea of a “4th package” keeps floating around, even if it's impossibly unrealistic. After all, the motivation is compelling. To WBD and Zaslav, being able to say to distributors, “We have X and Y” seems more important than the quality of the package. Think of how they've promoted deals for NASCAR races or College Football Playoff games that include minimal inventory. A so-called “D” package would allow WBD to continue listing the NBA along with many other assets, even if the actual content of the package is lacking.
For the NBA, this simply means more money to add to their huge rights contracts and one less headache to deal with — assuming, of course, that WBD's next contract doesn't include “matching rights” this time around.
