With the start of football season just a few months away and Ohio State's roster set, now seems like a good time to make some early predictions, especially with so many expectations this year.
Looking back at last year's predictions, I was right two out of five times. I was right that Marvin Harrison Jr. would be a Heisman Trophy finalist and Kyle McCord would be the starting quarterback. I was wrong that Ohio State would beat Michigan to win the Big Ten Conference and that JT Tuimoloau would be named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
Let's see if we can do a little better this year.
Emeka Egbuka named finalist for Biletinoff Prize
At Ohio State, 27 years passed between the first Biletinoff Award finalist, Terry Glenn, who won the award in 1995, and Marvin Harrison Jr., who became the second finalist in 2022. Some have argued that Harrison should have won the award that year, but he was re-elected as a finalist and won the award in 2023.
Columbus has produced a number of talented NFL receivers, so the lack of finalists is puzzling. The prediction here is that Egbuka will be a Biletinoff Award finalist, which would make Ohio State a finalist for the third consecutive year and just the second team to do so since the award's inception in 1994. Florida State has had two receivers achieve this feat: Peter Warrick was third in 1998 and 1999, and Marvin Minnis was runner-up in 2000.
Egbuka has a lot to prove this year. He was once a 1,000-yard receiver but suffered a Lisfranc injury last year, had surgery and missed three games midseason before returning. He didn't look 100% until the second half of the season, when it was too late to get back on track.
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I'm willing to bet that the 2022 version of Egbuka will be back. He threw for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns that year. Despite the drop in quarterback talent from C.J. Stroud to Will Howard and Devin Brown, I think Egbuka can recapture his year 2 magic. He'll get the most targets on the team, and with Ohio State's depth and versatility at wide receiver, he'll be moved around and used in a variety of ways.
I would argue that he enters this season as the third-best receiver in college football, behind Missouri's Luther Burden III and Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan. You could also add Oregon's Tez Johnson to that discussion, but even if you exclude Egbuka, he wouldn't rise higher than fourth.
Egbuka will likely be another 1,000-yard receiver this year and a finalist for the Biletinoff Award.
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Ohio State loses to Oregon but wins Big Ten Championship
More people, at least more than I would expect, are expecting Ohio State to win every game in the regular season.
in AthleticIn a fan survey last month, 55 percent of voters said they expected Ohio State to go 12-0, meaning the Buckeyes will travel to Oregon and beat the Ducks on Oct. 12. It's a tough matchup, especially on the road, considering Oregon is one of two teams that can match up to the Buckeyes talent-wise.
It will also be the first true road test for whoever the starting quarterback is. Howard or Brown will start their first month with warm-up games against Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall and Michigan State. A Week 5 home game against Iowa will be a test given the strength of the Hokies' defense, but it will be their first game against another national title contender since a scheduled 2020 game in Eugene was canceled due to COVID-19, when they travel to Oregon for a matchup that fans of both teams have been eagerly anticipating.
This seems like one of those early games that could go badly for Ohio State, but at the same time, it's something to learn from going forward.
A loss isn't the end of the world. If Ohio State beats Penn State on November 2, I think they'll only have one loss until the final week of the season. This time, Ohio State can beat Michigan, then get revenge against Oregon in the Big Ten Conference finals and punch a ticket to the CFP quarterfinals.
Ohio State lost to Oregon in their most recent matchup in 2021. (Joseph Maiorana/USA Today)
Buckeyes finish season with top defense for first time since 2019
You're going to hear a lot of comparisons between the 2024 defense and the 2019 group that led the nation in total defense, pass defense and yards allowed per play.
While I won't make a direct comparison, I project the Buckeyes to have the best defense in the country, and I also project them to finish the season as the nation's top overall defense.
While injuries or a lack of talent at a position can often derail a season, that hasn't been the case with this defense. For example, defensive back Jermaine Matthews is a starter right now, as is defensive end Caden Curry. If someone on the defensive line gets injured, anyone on the second team is good enough to start.
Linebacker is questionable, but that's due to a lack of experience at a position, not a talent issue. Sonny Stiles and CJ Hicks are five-star freshmen and are the best prospects in the 2022 class for a reason.
And they have some great talent up top — JT Tuimoloau and Denzel Burke are expected to be first-round draft picks, and the defense has at least five other draft picks — plus, with coordinator Jim Knowles, known for his ability to create chaos, in his third year on the job, this defense is poised to be the best in the country.
I don't think Ohio State will win it all like it did in 2019. There are plenty of questions on offense, but the defense should be more than capable of carrying the load until the new quarterback finds his footing, especially given the relatively easy start to the schedule.
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Will Howard takes the starting QB spot
Yes, I’m taking a real risk on this one…I just can’t see this going in Brown’s favor this summer.
Howard isn't a perfect player — first, he'd like to see his deep ball get better — but he has a lot of what you want in a quarterback: he sees the field well, is ideally built at 6-foot-4 and 237 pounds, moves well in the pocket, can run when he needs to and can throw accurate, off-script passes.
Brown was better at times in the spring game, but he impressed me. This battle is closer than many think, so we'll see how preseason camp goes. But while it's close, it's hard to imagine Howard not winning in the end. When players have similar skill attributes, I side with the player with the better pocket presence and field vision, which is Howard.
Ohio State matched its 2004 all-time record with 14 players drafted, but fell one short of the record.
Ohio State is a powerhouse. There's a reason this year's team is talked about as the best defense in the country and a chance to win a national championship.
That talent means Ohio State could be in the running to break the record for most draft picks in a single year — Georgia holds the record with 15 players selected in 2022. It's hard to imagine Ohio State reaching that number, but it could tie the record of 14, set in 2004.
Some names that come to my mind are: Will Howard, Treveyon Henderson, Quinssion Judkins, Donovan Jackson, Seth McLaughlin, Emeka Egbuka, JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Ty Hamilton, Tyreik Williams, Denzel Burke, Jordan Hancock, Sonny Stiles and Lathan Ransom.
There's some wiggle room on these names, but if Ohio State is in the running for a national title, there's no way Howard will go undrafted. I also expect Judkins and Stiles to leave early here, meaning Stiles is in for a great year as a linebacker. Hamilton is another name that could go either way, but he has a chance to make a push in the draft this year.
A path to the 15th pick is not impossible. Cody Simon could make the draft if he has a great year, and another name I'm intrigued by is Davison Igbinosun. He has the size, the competitive drive, and the physical strength. If he has a strong season, he could be the 15th player on the list, which would put him in a tie with Georgia.
(Top photo of Emeka Egbuka: Michael Reeves/Getty Images)
