-
Mike Coppinger, ESPN
The latest winner of the Canelo Alvarez sweepstakes is Jaime Munguia, who defeated Jermall Charlo and Edgar Berlanga to face boxing's top stars on May 4 in Las Vegas. With that fight comes boxing championship glory and, of course, the chance to earn the biggest payday of Munguia's career.
Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) enters the fight for the undisputed super middleweight championship after delivering the best performance of his career with a ninth-round TKO win over John Ryder in January. Munguia has improved greatly under the guidance of Hall of Fame trainer Freddie Roach.
Now he will meet up with his compatriot Alvarez over Cinco de Mayo weekend. Alvarez vs. Munguia will be the first all-Mexican fight for the title over 160 pounds.
How did Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) choose Munguia? Now that he's returned to PBC for at least one fight, what lies ahead for Canelo? Let's take a closer look at it:
Does Munguia have a realistic shot at defeating Alvarez?
Munguia is a good opponent and he definitely earned his chance by defeating Ryder. In comparison, Alvarez was unable to finish off Ryder in May, and although he made it all the way, he broke the Brit's nose and gave him a thorough 12-round beating.
And there is little doubt that Alvarez softened the rider for Munguia. Nevertheless, Munguia acquired significant capital. His defense was a flat-footed pressure fighter who relied on power shots, which was his biggest weakness as he built up his record. However, against Rider, Munguia had more responsibility defensively.
In his January fight, he kept his guard tighter and used his jab more effectively. Munguia also boxed on his toes. He has come a long way since his days as a 154-pound titleholder and seems to be steadily improving with each match.
Of course, boxing with discipline against a fighter like Ryder, a world-class boxer who later retired, is another matter. It's quite another to succeed against the elite of the sport.
Munguia's defense, while much improved at 27 years old, remains a weakness. He should be an easy target for Alvarez's power punches, as he is often open for counter shots.
Alvarez's hand and foot speed will also vary, as will his experience. Alvarez has shared the ring with great fighters such as Floyd Mayweather, Gennady Golovkin (36 rounds), and Miguel Cotto. 60 rounds with that boxer alone.
Meanwhile, Munguia's toughest opponent was Ryder.
Munguia was able to find success early in the fight. He has enough size and strength to compete with Alvarez. But if Alvarez gets his timing right against the slow Munguia, he should be able to unleash his signature power-punching combinations, and that's the first time Munguia's chin strength will be truly tested.
At 33 years old, Alvarez remains one of boxing's top stars and is rated the No. 4 pound-for-pound fighter by ESPN. According to ESPN BET, he opened as a -650 favorite.
Wait, didn't Alvarez say a few weeks ago that he was going to fight the American?
Yes, the plan was for Alvarez to fight Jermall Charlo on May 4th. In fact, when Alvarez signed a three-fight deal with PBC in June, the original vision was for him to fight Jermall Charlo in September, followed by his twin brother Jermall in May. . Charlo.
Jermall withdrew from the assignment for personal reasons before the fight was officially announced and agreed to fight Alvarez in May. According to sources, Coach Alvarez understood that as well.
Alvarez continued to dominate Jermell, taking him down in a one-sided decision victory in September. Jermell never had a chance in the fight, making it a very disappointing match through no fault of Alvarez, but he seemed content to go all the way.
Jermall remained one of the pre-approved names for Alvarez's remaining two fights, but it quickly became clear that this matchup would be difficult for Maye. It's always a big event when Alvarez fights, but after Jermell's lackluster performance, there was little commercial demand for another Charlo matchup.
The brothers' revenge perspective was also dismissed when Jermell did not show up to cheer Jermall on at that match. He won a decision over Jose Benavidez Jr. in November, but failed to impress and his stock declined further. The fight was Charlo's first fight in 29 months.
Errol Spence Jr. was also a pre-approved name (by Alvarez and PBC), but that was before he was TKOed by Terrence Crawford in a one-sided beatdown in July. And since Spence underwent cataract surgery in January, Alvarez's primary target has become Jermall Charlo.
When Alvarez and PBC were unable to agree on terms to fight Charlo, Canelo was contractually allowed to consider other options.
He had been in talks to return to DAZN for matches with Munguia and Berlanga this year, but those negotiations stalled, so the champion returned to the PBC table.
And now Alvarez, along with Al Haymon, will face a far more interesting opponent over Cinco de Mayo weekend.
What will happen to the next game in September? Would David Benavidez be a realistic option for Alvarez?
Alvarez's biggest fight will be against Benavidez, a high-volume fighter who seems to pose the biggest threat to Alvarez.
“The reason this fight isn't happening is simply because Alvarez doesn't want it to happen…” Benavidez told ESPN last month. “So there's money, there's anticipation from fans of the game. It's going to be a great event.”
Alvarez has shown little interest in this matchup, but that doesn't mean the fight won't happen. Alvarez will once again become a network and promotional free agent after the Munguia fight. He is returning to PBC, but on a one-fight deal, according to sources.
Benavidez fights under the PBC banner, so Alvarez's continued partnership is good news for the “Mexican Monster.” No matter what network Canelo fights on, who he fights will always be completely up to him. He holds the decision-making authority.
In the past, he has shown a willingness to face high-risk, low-reward fighters such as Austin Trout and Erislandy Lara. Now that he's at a different stage in his career, perhaps Alvarez sees things differently. However, there were rumors a few years ago that he would never face GGG. Alvarez went on to fight him three times.
If Benavidez is not available in September, Crawford would be another strong option. ESPN's pound-for-pound No. 1 fighter is moving up in weight for a summer return, and the welterweight champion has publicly called for a fight with Alvarez.
Alvarez has shown little interest in facing Crawford, commenting that he is too small. But that could change if Crawford can prove himself at a higher weight against a tougher fighter.
More likely for September are the less attractive options that Alvarez is already eyeing. That could include Berlanga, Charlo, and maybe even Spence, assuming Fighter is healthy and ready.
But first, Canelo must return Munguia in his fourth defense of the undisputed crown.
