Where will Nikola Jokic rank among NBA greats after winning MVP again?

Now that his third NBA MVP trophy sits on his shelf at home beneath his horse racing medal, where does Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic rank in the all-time player debate? Is he already a top 20 player? Will he be part of the GOAT discussion? What do you think will happen when he looks back 20 years from now?

This is probably a tough time to make this argument given how Jokic's past two games have played out. But let's pull back the camera, look at the big picture, and ask how high a pedestal will Jokic land on when he finally hangs up his sneakers? Luckily I have some tools to help me solve this.

Let's start here: In terms of rankings with the all-time greats of the game, Jokic is already in some position. He won his third MVP award in four seasons on Wednesday, finishing second in 2023 and joining the rare ranks of eight other players who have won the trophy three times. Voter fatigue has been an issue for other great players, but it's not yet clear what will prevent him from winning a fourth or fifth term.

Having already dominated the 2023 postseason, this award is Jokic's official coronation into the pantheon. He just recently turned 29 and has only played nine seasons in the NBA, but in a hypothetical world where Jokic decided to end his career tomorrow and get a pony or learn a word like Minion, He still has a strong case to be one of the top 20 players. A player who will go down in NBA history.

Beyond that, he has racked up many other accomplishments that make him an extremely rare figure. He is known as a singular driving force on championship teams, becoming one of only 12 players to win a title without an All-Star teammate in 2023 (and repeating that feat this year) Trying to).

And unlike the other players on that list, there is no one in Denver's 2023 playoff rotation. Until now We made an all-star team. (Little-used backup center DeAndre Jordan was their only past All-Star.) Jokic hasn't had an All-Star, All-NBA, or All-Defensive teammate in his first eight seasons. He's the only MVP ever, and he's on the verge of achieving that feat. Unless Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope becomes second-team All-Defense, it's 9 years old.

Statistically, Jokic is near the top of the mountain. My PER ratings don't apply to pre-1974 players like Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain because the league didn't track blocked shots or turnovers, but in the 50 years since then, Jokic has been the single-season PER leader. He has won 4 out of 16. , corresponding to his final four seasons. The geekier Box Plus Minus (BPM) statistic gives him an even more optimistic analysis, crediting him with four of the top six seasons in the last 50 years. Jokic currently holds single-season records for both PER (32.9) and BPM (13.7), set in the 2021-22 season. And in the playoffs, he stepped it up even more despite what happened in the last two games against Minnesota. His career playoff PER of 29.2 is the highest in NBA history.

That's the background. Nikola Jokic is really good at basketball. (Thank you, Einstein.) But is his career better than, say, Stephen Curry, Dirk Nowitzki, Bob Pettit, or any other random great?

Fortunately, I have the tools to do that.I call it the GOAT point, I introduced it and explained it The Athletic announced its list of the NBA's all-time top 75 players for 2021 and 2022, but Jokic was not included at the time. When I first made this list, Jokic had yet to win his second MVP, but he was in the midst of his best season ever and was still ranked 44th in GOAT points at the time. I did. Needless to say, in his last three seasons he's racked up a ton of other accomplishments.

In fact, when I updated the GOAT points list after the season in my Basketball 100 book (coming to a bookstore near you this winter!), after factoring in first-team All-NBA selections and the MVP award, Jokic scored 21 points. I rose to the rank. , just behind Jerry West and just in front of Giannis Antetokounmpo. If he wins NBA Finals MVP this year (which seems much less likely than it did a few days ago), he'll make the jump west. If not, he almost certainly will next season.

(It should be pointed out that Antetokounmpo is the same age as Jokic and was great this season as well. He seems to be on a different career trajectory now, but that doesn't mean he's out of the realm of possibility to someday reclaim the Joker's lead.) Not. Point.)

What happens when Jokic's career ends? It's hard to predict, of course, but given the range of his all-time leaderboard (see graph below), it's very likely he finishes 12th. That would put him just behind Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant and just in front of Kevin Durant.

If Jokic has another near-unanimous MVP season, he could move up to No. 12 by the end of next season. More realistically, the MVP is his two.candidate-Type season could work out. But then there's a tough mountain to climb to catch Shaq and Kobe. He will be 31 at that point and will still need multiple MVP-level seasons to close the 84-point gap between Durant and Bryant.

Of course, I'm talking about rankings in a proprietary rating system, but I think this reflects the fact that actual performance is what draws players into the GOAT discussion.

GOAT points aren't perfect. For example, James Harden and Karl Malone are almost certainly overrated, and Michael Jordan and Kevin Garnett are underrated. But in the bigger picture, there are themes that are important to Jokic's position in the debate. It's easy to think that Jokic in particular can slide into the top 10 from here, but that's not true. One thing he won't be rewarded with GOAT points for is “hanging around” for years. When you're dealing with players of this caliber, even making the All-Star team is a very small, almost irrelevant accomplishment.

Notably, this graph highlights that as good as Jokic has been over the past four years, he needs to do so for at least four more years to realistically sniff out the end of the GOAT debate. That means there is.

Compared to most players at this lofty level, Jokic had a very slow start to high-end accomplishments, not even making the All-Star team until he was nearly 24 years old, and only winning a playoff series in his first seven seasons. was only 4 times. He has made up for lost time with an incredible four-season run that rivals almost any player in history, but his endurance at this elite level will determine how high he rises. It will be.

For example, Jokic's four-year performance still pales in comparison to the league's Mount Rushmore candidates. LeBron James has been named to the All-NBA first team for 11 years and has been in the top five MVP candidates. Michael Jordan finished in the top three in MVP voting and on the All-NBA First Team 10 times during a two-year hiatus from basketball.

Even in the relatively short careers (for superstars) of Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, Jokic has an edge in this regard. Both finished in the top three in MVP voting and were on the All-NBA First Team for nine years.

For Jokic, his place in history will largely depend on how long he can sustain this run. While other things are important (a championship, currently under threat of back-to-back wins by the Minnesota Timberwolves), longevity at the MVP level is what it's all about.

For now, three things can be said about Jokic's place in history.

First, there's a whole class of all-time greats that he's already forgotten. It's laughable that he's not on the list, at least among the 30 greatest players of all time. GOAT points confirm this. He currently leads 30th place John Stockton and his 31st place Elgin Baylor by over 100 points. I don't think anyone in their right mind would conclude that either of these players could reach Jokic's all-time rankings even if they retired tomorrow.

Second, Jokic is clearly on track to be one of the top 15 or so players of all time. At the moment, he's on track to overtake the league's champions, eclipse Giannis and nab Durant, while also adding players like Oscar Robertson and Garnett to the all-time list.

And third, it will take time to get into the true inner circle of all-time greats like the Birds and Magic, Shax, and Kobe.Jokic definitely can Once he gets there, adding fourth and fifth MVP honors will be a very strong argument in his favor. However, in order to achieve this, it is necessary to continue maintaining an overwhelming level even into your 30s.

(Nikola Jokic photo: Michael Reeves/Getty Images)