Few can predict with any degree of certainty what Utah State football will look like this fall.
There is a good reason for this.
Utah State head football coach Blake Anderson is all but certain to resign after an external investigation alleges that Anderson, associate athletic director Jerry Bovey and Utah State football director of player development and community Austin Albrecht “violated university policies regarding reporting sexual and domestic violence and dereliction of duty.”
Losing a head coach so close to the start of a season raises serious questions, but losing Anderson is especially so because he served as the Aggies' offensive play-caller and quarterbacks coach.
Anderson was the driving force behind USU's prolific offense, which finished the 2023 season ranked 26th in the country in scoring.
New Utah State defensive coordinator Nate Dreiling, who took over in January, has been named the team's interim head coach, making him the youngest head coach at the FBS level in 2024.
Nate Dreiling's coaching history
According to many, the 33-year-old Dreiling is a rising star in the coaching world, and much of that acclaim can be attributed to his work at New Mexico State.
While the other Aggies are traditionally one of the most miserable programs in the entire FBS, over the past two years New Mexico State has been competitive enough to beat Auburn at Alabama and play in the Conference USA championships, and Dreiling's defense played a key role in that success.
Bud Elliott of 247 Sports probably put it best: “Nate Dreiling did a great job at New Mexico State (compared to the lack of athleticism he could sign with there), and I thought he could get a better job than DC at Utah State. Utah State's HC is a better fit.”
Still, no one knows what kind of head coach Dreiling will be, because he's never held the job before: He's been defensive coordinator (at USU, NMSU and Pittsburg State, the latter of which is his alma mater), defensive run game coordinator and inside linebackers coach, safeties coach and defensive analyst.
Utah State University roster changes
But Dreiling's unknowns aren't the only confusion surrounding the Aggies' future.
After surviving the first offseason transfer period relatively unscathed (safety Devin Dye was the only player from the Aggies' two-deep to depart), USU was dealt a devastating blow in the spring by departures from the transfer portal.
Some of the players who left are better known, such as quarterback McKay Hillstead and running back Davon Booth, who both went on to attend rival school BYU, but others are lesser known, such as defensive end John Ward and linebacker Gavin Berciel.
But when you add up all the transfers, releases, retirements and graduations, Utah State will have to replace more than 50 players from last season's roster.
To put it in perspective, the average FBS team has a roster of around 115-120 players, meaning USU would have had to replace roughly 42% of their team from 2023-2024….they did something pretty eerily similar with their roster construction a year ago.
The number of players who have been replaced or need to be replaced could also increase, as NCAA rules state players must apply to the transfer portal within 30 days after a head coach is fired.
That means a number of players, including safety Ike Larsen, wide receiver Jalen Royals and running back Rahul Faison, are once again open to being plucked by opposing teams.
Many, if not most, Aggie players may not be able to find a landing spot at this point in the year with the majority of the team's roster being pretty much set, but roster openings always arise for the right players.
Even if Dreiling and the Aggies manage to keep most of their team, there are still a lot of unknowns.
Anderson coaches the quarterbacks himself, and the openings at the position are filled by transfers Spencer Petras, Bryson Barnes, Jacob Conover and C.J. Tiller (all of whom joined this offseason), so there's no continuity in the most important room in sports.
Meanwhile, their defense was one of the worst in college football last year, ranking 120th in scoring defense, 126th in rushing defense, 61st in pass efficiency defense, 128th in first down defense, and the list goes on and on.
Even if Dreiling is a defensive genius (and it's entirely possible), the Aggies still have a lot of improvement to make in order to be an average FBS defense, let alone a good one, and that task could only be made even more difficult by a potential departure through the transfer portal.
Reasons for Hope
That's not to say that Logan's situation is all dire.
As of now, the Aggies appear poised to be a great offensive force with co-offensive coordinator Kyle Cefalo still on staff.
Most of the key members of last year's offensive line are back, including Royals' dynamic, record-breaking receiver so far.
But beyond him, the Aggies have experienced pass-catcher Micah Davis, explosive ball-carrier Faison and tough-as-nails Robert Briggs III, experienced tight ends Will Mauney and Josh Sterzer, key upgrades on the offensive line in transfers George Mile and Trey Andersen and up-and-comers Beau Mile and Teague Andersen who could do well in the future.
The team also acquired other talent during the offseason, including junior college All-American wide receiver Robert Freeman IV.
When the Utah State athletic department's “Reach and Rise” fundraising campaign was announced in June, Cefalo expressed optimism about the Aggies' offense and how well they could perform this season.
“I think it's the best, and it starts with the kids that chose to stay,” he said. “We have a lot of kids, kids that chose to stay here, the Jalen Royals, the Ike Larsens. They had the opportunity to leave, but they chose to stay here. They're here and they want to make the most of it.”
“From an offensive standpoint, from a wide receiver standpoint, you go into a meeting room and there's a new face there,” he continued. “We have a lot of young guys that chose to be here and chose to stay here, and they're good players, too.”
Cefalo isn't worried about the rookie quarterback either, noting that Petras only has one year of eligibility left and wants to make the most of it. He's also not your typical transfer quarterback, having spent last season coaching at Iowa while rehabbing from an injury.
Petras was at the fundraiser and expressed his wholehearted belief in the Aggies' offense and what Utah State can accomplish this season.
“I was able to adapt quickly and it's a lot of fun,” he said. “Any tempo or system can be a big advantage if executed well, so I'm looking forward to it.”
He added: “First and foremost, a Mountain West championship is our goal. With the current playoff structure, we can aim higher than that. I don't really like talking about stuff like that. I just know that if we do the right thing every day, play well and have a good team, it will pay off.”
But all the faith and optimism in the world can't obscure the myriad questions surrounding the Utah State football team and the fact that there is little time to find solutions with fall camp fast approaching.
There are 60 days until the Aggies' season opener against Robert Morris, and 74 days until their home game against rival Utah as of Tuesday night.
Your staff and team should know it too.
“As coaches, instead of complaining about something new, we have to tell ourselves, this is our team and we have to embrace it,” Cefalo said of the turnover over the past two years.
This is a statement that carries even more weight now.
“I think we've done a great job putting the team together,” Cefalo added, “and we have a lot of work to do to be successful.”
With Anderson gone, the work has increased more than ever.
The only certainty at this point for Utah State football is that Anderson is no longer the Aggies' head coach and with Dreiling at the helm, the team has a lot of work to do but little time to do it.
