One thing the French seem to be learning (or relearning, given their history) is that the Russians are always looking for scraps. A ministerial phone call between the two countries devolves into a diplomatic spat, with an irate Emmanuel Macron now claiming Russia is targeting this summer's Paris Olympics, and he's probably right. Dew.
On Wednesday, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecorne held a rare telephone conversation with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the first since 2022. Paris said the call focused solely on the scope of counter-terrorism cooperation and what President Macron later described as “useful information” about the source and organization of the attack, following last month's Crocus City terrorist attack in Moscow. It claims it was about the intention to share. '. But what Paris disingenuously viewed as an altruistic expression of solidarity, Moscow inevitably claimed that the attacks were carried out by jihadists but were the result of a Kiev-organized conspiracy (apparently discredited). It was interpreted as a challenge to the official position.
In the current situation, Moscow has no reason to hold back.
Shoigu may not believe in this conspiracy theory, but he still needs to promote it with every determination – and I'm sure the French knew this too. Indeed, given that Macron has started again as a hawk, floating the idea of sending combat troops to Ukraine and recently deciding that Russia's defeat is “essential” to European security, It's entirely possible that they thought it was a trap. Lecorne also called on Russia to stop “manipulating” the incident to take Kiev, according to French sources, adding that “France had no information linking the attack to Ukraine.”
How receptive did Paris think the Kremlin would be to this iteration of the Western perspective? Kremlin officials tend to work on the principle that Western proposals are at best dishonest and at worst deceptive. NATO foreign ministers met this week to reaffirm their support for Ukraine, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said relations between Russia and the West had “now fallen to the level of direct conflict,” prompting both countries to seek tolerance. It is unlikely that you will be in such a mood.
In the phone conversation, Mr. Shoigu apparently hit back, not only repeating the Kremlin's warnings about the dire consequences of direct intervention in the war (“It would cause problems for France itself”), but also saying that Paris had no intention of adding anything to the war. He also suggested that he may have played a role. Terrorist attack: “The Kiev regime does not do anything without the consent of its Western supporters. I hope that in this case French intelligence is not behind it.”
An outraged President Macron called the proposal “ridiculous” and Russia's comments “bizarre and threatening.”
One might wonder what he expected. One minute he's beating his chest and the next he's extending a little olive branch, which is probably the diplomatic equivalent of the “strategic ambiguity” he's so passionate about. Dew. But the Kremlin never responds well to such ambiguity. In cases of doubt, he will find intrigue and hypocrisy.
Naturally, therefore, the Russian side is developing the whole incident in its favor, in particular by claiming that the two ministers also discussed the scope of the war talks, which Paris hastened to deny. I denied it. But the word came out again, again in sufficiently ambiguous terms, for the Kremlin to produce more hay. By stating that “France neither accepted nor proposed anything of the kind,'' it allowed the Russian side to suggest that it did not reject Russia's proposals outright. This almost certainly includes nothing, but we should expect Moscow to do everything possible at every opportunity.
France is expected to see an intensification of its existing political warfare campaign against the Kremlin, from cyberattacks to sabotage. For example, Russian disinformation outlets did not invent unsubstantiated rumors that President Macron's wife Brigitte was a transsexual, but to undermine her husband's attempts to promote his tough-guy credentials. has been enthusiastically amplifying the rumors.
But Macron is particularly concerned right now about the impending Olympics. Asked if Russia would target them, he said there was “no doubt” that Russia would do so, including through information operations.
Of course they would. Such events also aim to give the host country soft power and attract global attention. Any embarrassing scandal, any technical glitch, any unexpected failure will be amplified by legitimate media just as much as by Russian bots and trolls. In the current situation, with President Macron cosplaying as Calamity the Bear and the Russian team being banned from the Olympics unless they can prove they are against the war (so far only eight have done so) , Moscow has no reason to hold back. Quite the opposite.
So while France's security services will do their best (and they have a reputation for ruthlessness), Macron has little choice but to appeal to the public to be “resolutely vigilant” and “confident in ourselves.” do not have. But a European security official said glumly: “Little more could have been done to encourage the Russians to participate in the Olympics.”
