The much-hyped College Football 25 game is here, which means many Syracuse Orange fans likely started their journey of taking the program back to the promised land.
But, how does the new game feel about the Orange in the upcoming 2024 season? We put that question to the test.
Christian and I simulated Syracuse’s 2024 season 10 times each. Collectively, we have compiled the results of those 20 individual season simulations in what turned out to be a very fun exercise. As part of this, we logged everything: game scores, final records, AP polls, All-ACC nods and (much) more. We also included some categories to dive a bit deeper into some of the specific sim scenarios.
After 20 simulations, here is what we got:
The complete results
This first chart looks at the bigger picture end results. In 20 seasons, we catalogued the following:
- Final overall record
- Final conference record
- Highest AP poll rank
- Final AP poll rank
- College Football Playoff bid, if any
- Bowl game, if any, plus opponent and result
Here is how the Orange stacked up in those categories:
Syracuse’s full 2024 results from 20 CF25 simulations
| Season Simulations | Overall Record | Record versus ACC | AP Poll High | Final AP Poll | CFP Bid? | Bowl Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Simulations | Overall Record | Record versus ACC | AP Poll High | Final AP Poll | CFP Bid? | Bowl Game |
| No. 1 | 10-3 | 5-3 | 17 | 17 | No | Gasparilla Bowl vs. West Virginia (W) |
| No. 2 | 8-5 | 4-4 | N/A | N/A | No | Fenway Bowl vs. East Carolina (W) |
| No. 3 | 6-6 | 3-5 | 21 | N/A | No | No |
| No. 4 | 8-5 | 3-5 | N/A | N/A | No | TaxSlayer Gator Bowl vs. Auburn (W) |
| No. 5 | 6-7 | 3-5 | N/A | N/A | No | Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs. Central Florida (L) |
| No. 6 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 24 | N/A | No | Holiday Bowl vs. Purdue (L) |
| No. 7 | 9-4 | 4-4 | 20 | N/A | No | Fenway Bowl vs. UTSA (W) |
| No. 8 | 5-7 | 2-6 | N/A | N/A | No | No |
| No. 9 | 6-6 | 3-5 | N/A | N/A | No | No |
| No. 10 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 23 | N/A | No | Gasparilla Bowl vs. West Virginia (W) |
| No. 11 | 10-3 | 7-1 | 16 | 18 | No | Gasparilla Bowl vs UCF (L 41-20) |
| No. 12 | 9-4 | 5-3 | N/A | N/A | No | Military Bowl vs Charlotte (W 43-41) |
| No. 13 | 8-5 | 3-5 | 16 | N/A | No | Gator Bowl vs 12 Texas A&M (W 22-17) |
| No. 14 | 9-4 | 4-4 | N/A | N/A | No | Birmingham Bowl vs East Carolina (W 38-7) |
| No. 15 | 7-6 | 5-3 | N/A | N/A | No | Pop Tarts Bowl vs UCF (L 31-20) |
| No. 16 | 4-8 | 1-7 | N/A | N/A | No | No |
| No. 17 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 19 | N/A | No | Reliaquest Bowl vs Kentucky (L 31-26) |
| No. 18 | 9-4 | 5-3 | 19 | N/A | No | Birmingham Bowl vs East Carolina (W 20-10) |
| No. 19 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 24 | N/A | No | Gator Bowl vs Florida (W 22-17) |
| No. 20 | 10-3 | 5-3 | 16 | N/A | No | Pop Tarts Bowl vs Kansas (W 33-7) |
In total, Syracuse clinched a spot in a bowl game 16 times in 20 simulations (80%) of the upcoming 2024 season. Across all 20 sims, Syracuse only finished with five wins or fewer just twice. On the flip side, the Orange crossed the nine or more wins threshold eight times.
Most of the sims typically had the Syracuse winning around eight games. After 20 simulations, the Orange with an approximate average overall record of 8-5 and an average 4-4 record versus the ACC.
Here’s a further breakdown:
Seasons below .500: 3
Seasons at or above .500: 17
Seasons with at least 7 wins: 15
Seasons with at least 8 wins: 13
Seasons with at least 9 wins: 8
Seasons with 10 or more wins: 3
Bowl games clinched: 16 (x3 Gasparilla Bowl, x3 Gator Bowl, x2 Fenway Bowl, x2 Birmingham Bowl, x2 Pop Tarts Bowl, x1 Duke’s Mayo Bowl, x1 Holiday Bowl, x1 Military Bowl and x1 ReliaQuest Bowl)
Schedule results by the numbers
Because we continued to sim just the 2024 season, we also logged the Orange’s record versus each individual opponent.
Syracuse’s 2024 schedule simulated results
| Season Simulations | Ohio (H) | Georgia Tech (H) | Stanford (H) | Holy Cross (H)* | UNLV (R) | NC State (R) | Pitt (R) | Virginia Tech (H) | BC (R) | Cal (R) | UConn (H) | Miami (FL) (H) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Simulations | Ohio (H) | Georgia Tech (H) | Stanford (H) | Holy Cross (H)* | UNLV (R) | NC State (R) | Pitt (R) | Virginia Tech (H) | BC (R) | Cal (R) | UConn (H) | Miami (FL) (H) |
| No. 1 | W, 27-0 | W, 24-7 | L, 45-24 | W, 43-10 | W, 38-7 | L, 21-13 | W, 25-24 | W, 31-21 | W, 23-10 | W, 24-6 | W, 20-17 | L, 28-22 |
| No. 2 | L, 28-25 | W, 35-33 | L, 20-16 | W, 39-18 | W, 31-17 | L, 31-23 | W, 27-3 | W, 35-28 | L, 27-13 | L, 27-17 | W, 24-20 | W, 31-13 |
| No. 3 | W, 35-10 | W, 24-20 | W, 35-24 | W, 41-23 | L, 28-27 | L, 38-32 | L, 32-24 | L, 39-37 | L, 17-9 | W, 24-10 | W, 26-14 | L, 38-21 |
| No. 4 | W, 42-13 | L, 42-30 | L, 28-23 | W, 31-12 | W, 20-17 | L, 31-15 | L, 31-27 | W, 19-14 | W, 27-24 | W, 30-3 | W, 38-14 | L, 27-19 |
| No. 5 | W, 27-21 | L, 45-40 | L, 42-31 | W, 21-13 | L, 34-31 | L, 45-22 | L, 70-28 | L, 23-10 | W, 24-21 | W, 31-25 | W, 34-24 | W, 31-24 |
| No. 6 | W, 31-10 | W, 24-7 | W, 24-20 | W, 34-7 | W, 27-16 | L, 20-14 | W, 38-21 | L, 23-21 | L, 42-40 | W, 28-25 | L, 31-13 | L, 42-41 |
| No. 7 | W, 41-23 | W, 31-7 | L, 24-17 | W, 45-0 | W, 51-17 | W, 27-24 | W, 22-14 | W, 38-21 | L, 38-35 | L, 21-17 | W, 24-10 | L, 28-25 |
| No. 8 | W, 34-14 | L, 24-21 | L, 24-21 | W, 33-14 | W, 27-10 | L, 17-14 | W, 29-24 | L, 20-17 | W, 24-8 | L, 23-20 | L, 28-20 | L, 51-24 |
| No. 9 | W, 34-7 | L, 24-14 | L, 27-24 | W, 38-3 | L, 24-18 | W, 34-31 | L, 31-25 | W, 34-16 | W, 31-21 | L, 28-17 | W, 31-17 | L, 31-21 |
| No. 10 | W, 20-17 | W, 49-41 | W, 28-21 | W, 31-7 | W, 7-3 | L, 37-14 | W, 31-23 | L, 38-20 | L, 30-24 | W, 21-10 | L, 23-20 | W, 38-24 |
| No. 11 | W, 28-0 | W, 31-27 | W, 31-30 | W, 27-10 | W, 20-12 | L, 24-10 | W 45-14 | W, 45-14 | W, 24-16 | W, 31-28 | L, 20-14 | W, 20-17 |
| No. 12 | W, 41-13 | L, 32-31 | W, 33-21 | W. 35-7 | L, 24-13 | L, 23-20 | L, 20-17 | W, 30-14 | W, 24-21 | W, 13-10 | W, 37-7 | W, 35-24 |
| No. 13 | W, 37-17 | W, 27-17 | L, 31-28 | W, 27-3 | W, 27-24 | W, 24-21 | L, 23-19 | L, 21-16 | L, 35-17 | W, 23-17 | W, 37-21 | L, 28-22 |
| No. 14 | W, 20-3 | L, 34-19 | W, 38-17 | W, 35-3 | W, 28-26 | L, 13-10 | W, 42-20 | W, 35-34 | L, 21-14 | L, 21-17 | W, 31-17 | W, 40-17 |
| No. 15 | W, 42-10 | L, 34-23 | W, 38-21 | L, 27-24 | L, 30-28 | L, 28-22 | W, 27-0 | W, 41-22 | L, 45-9 | W, 41-35 | W, 25-17 | W, 41-25 |
| No. 16 | W, 45-7 | L, 34-26 | L, 17-13 | L, 22-21 | W, 16-9 | L, 21-13 | L, 31-27 | L, 25-24 | L, 38-29 | W, 41-17 | W, 31-13 | L, 24-3 |
| No. 17 | W, 21-9 | W, 37-22 | L, 45-21 | W, 35-13 | W, 28-16 | W, 24-21 | L, 43-31 | W, 35-24 | L, 27-18 | W, 23-14 | W, 37-21 | L, 38-28 |
| No. 18 | W, 38-7 | W, 31-28 | W, 35-17 | W, 66-7 | L, 38-14 | W, 27-7 | W, 37-3 | W, 33-16 | L, 24-13 | L, 38-14 | W, 27-10 | L, 24-13 |
| No. 19 | W, 29-17 | W, 30-27 | W, 23-17 | W, 31-17 | L, 18-17 | W, 37-22 | L, 34-13 | L, 31-28 | L, 27-21 | L, 35-31 | W, 21-11 | W, 42-31 |
| No. 20 | W, 55-7 | W, 41-13 | L, 35-20 | W, 24-10 | W, 44-14 | L, 28-14 | W, 24-10 | W, 22-18 | W, 21-16 | W, 31-7 | W, 34-29 | L, 35-20 |
Here are our main takeaways:
Dom: Both in CF25 and in real life, it’s clear The U and NC State are probably Syracuse’s two toughest opponents on the 2024 schedule. I also think the game accurate reflected Syracuse’s “most difficult” stretch: back-to-back road battles versus NC State and Pitt followed by some arguable “swing” games against Virginia Tech on SU’s alumni weekend and (an albeit somewhat overrated in CF25) BC. Stanford in Week 3 will also be, like the GT game, an early-season test for the Orange.
Christian: Giving the amount of “50-50” games in this simulation, it became clear to me one certain thing – we’ll definitely find out if Fran Brown can coach or not this season. That’s been one of the biggest question marks in an otherwise nearly perfect offseason. So many of the losses that were logged in these simulations were by one score, and games like those can easily come down to the coaching to determine the winner in real life. It’s clear that the space between the floor and ceiling of this season is massive. Fran and his staff might just be the X-factors that decide how close to the ceiling the Orange get.
Final records versus:
- Ohio: 19-1
- Georgia Tech: 12-8
- Stanford: 9-11
- Holy Cross* (FCS East): 18-2
- UNLV: 13-7
- NC State: 6-14
- Pitt: 11-9
- Virginia Tech: 12-8
- Boston College: 8-12
- Cal: 13-7
- UConn: 16-4
- Miami (FL): 8-12
Individual accolades
All-ACC nods were pretty straightforward for the Orange. Marlowe Wax proved to be the most dominant with first-team selections in all 20 simulations. Like Wax, Duce Chesnut and Justin Barron each cashed in with 20 second-team nods each.
Those were the only three players to make All-ACC in each simulation. On offense, both LeQuint Allen (four first-teams, six second-teams) and Oronde Gadsden II (four first-teams, two second-teams) each fared pretty well. One sim had Umari Hatcher sneak into All-ACC second team status. Only those six Syracuse players clinched at least one All-ACC nod across the 20 sims.
Simulation superlatives
Best simulated season outcome
- Dom: My first sim. Syracuse finished with 10 wins (the only time that happened in all my sims) and only lost to Miami, NC State and Stanford. Seven of the Orange’s 10 wins were by double-digits. And of course, Syracuse claimed more bragging rights West Virginia in the Gasparilla Bowl.
- Christian: Also a massive shoutout to my first season (No. 11 in the chart), also getting to 10 wins. The only losses in the regular season came to NC State and… uh… UConn. But a 10-2 regular season would be amazing in real life.
Worst simulated season outcome
- Dom: My eighth sim. It was the only one Syracuse didn’t get to at least six wins, and that included a really bad 2-6 record versus the ACC. The Orange were 4-4 at one point with losses to GT, Stanford, NC State and Virginia Tech. After beating BC by 16, they then lost three straight to Cal, UConn and Miami (including a major 51-24 collapse versus The U).
- Christian: Congratulations to my sixth season, which I have dubbed “The Scott Shafer Season” in memory of the horrific 2014 season. High expectations and disastrous results. The four-game losing streak to NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech and Boston College was not a fun feeling.
Most #Sicko simulated season outcome
- Dom: My fifth sim embodied a #Sicko. Syracuse started off 2-6 and both its wins were single-digit victories against Ohio and Holy Cross*. Somehow, the Orange went ballistic and ended the year with four-straight wins against BC, Cal, UConn and Miami. Things concluded with a #BRANDED matchup in the Duke’s Mayor Bowl versus Central Florida, which ended up as a loss.
- Christian: You would think in season nine that a 5-1 start that included a win over NC State would signal success. Nope! Four straight losses to Pitt, Virginia Tech, BC and Cal killed any of that momentum. Thankfully the season was salvaged with a win over Miami and a win over Florida in the Gator Bowl.
Most #Sicko single-game result
- Dom: Pitt defeated the Orange 70-28 in the aforementioned fifth sim I had. Honorable mention: a 7-3 win over UNLV (LOL!).
- Christian: I could go with any of my two (you read that right, TWO!!) losses to the powerhouse that is FCS East (Holy Cross). However, nothing will be as soul-crushing as heading into the UConn game with a 9-1 record and LOSING AT HOME in my first simulation.
Biggest general takeaway
- Dom: Although they’re just sims in a video game, I do think they mostly depicted where Syracuse will likely finish in 2024 in my opinion. No, I don’t think the Orange can be a 10- or 11-win team even with the projected easiest schedule in the country. I’d be content with a 7- or 8-win year, especially in coach Fran’s first year. This exercise also reflected how the Orange’s middle portion of the schedule still remains a very tough test. That could very much make or break how this season goes.
- Christian: Honestly, I think Dom got super unlucky in his simulations. I averaged 8.2 wins in my simulations and that average could be higher if I didn’t have my fluky “Scott Shafer” season in my sixth season. It could’ve also been higher if I somehow go 2-8 against Boston College (how?). Eight wins seems just about right for the expectations for this Syracuse team given the schedule the Orange goes up against. Once again, like I said in my main takeaway, we’ll learn a lot about how Fran coaches in these games since it seems like a lot of them are set up to be one-score games.
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Have any of you run into some interesting Syracuse scenarios in your CFB25 play?
