SAN FRANCISCO – The guessing game is over. After weeks of thinking about where the Warriors would be in the Western Conference standings, who they would play after the regular season, and what building they would play in, they decided to play seven games for the single-elimination NBA Play-Ins. Packing the series into one suitcase will be Tuesday night's tournament game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center.
Two Northern California rivals are battling to either extend the season or watch the rest of the season from home. On the one hand, the 10th-seeded Warriors are trying to prove they're still the big brother who can make the playoffs despite the bumpy road ahead. Meanwhile, the ninth-seeded Kings will try to put their past behind them, stand up to their bullies and continue writing their own story.
How will these two teams fare against each other, and what can we learn from the last four regular season games?
There's a reason they finished the exact same way they did in the regular season, 46 wins and 36 losses. The Warriors and Kings split a four-game series, with Golden State winning the first two games and Sacramento winning the last two games.
The Warriors' two wins were by a total of nine points. Both of the Kings' wins were by one point.
“We know them well and they know us well, so it's not a surprise,” Draymond Green said Sunday, as the Warriors beat the Utah Jazz 123-116. He spoke after winning.
Even though the Warriors' first loss to the Kings came from blowing a 24-point lead, it cannot be overstated how close these games ultimately were. The Warriors averaged 120 points in four games, while the Kings averaged 118.3 points. A big factor is he's very likely on the 3-point line.
Stephen Curry wasn't the only Warrior to make threes against the Kings this season.
Curry played for the Kings during the regular season, averaging 31.0 points on 52.5 percent shooting (42-of-80) and 45.7 percent (21-of-46) from long range. As a team, the Warriors shot 43.3 percent from three against the Kings, while Sacramento's defense held them to just 35.9 percent from three.
The Kings were the second-worst team in the NBA in defense of the 3-point line this season, allowing opponents to shoot 39.1 percent from three, while the Warriors were seventh-best on 3-point shooting this season at 38.0 percent.
Additionally, the Kings don't have two players who can heat up from beyond the arc. Malik Monk has been out since March 29 with a sprained MCL, and Kevin Huerter underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in late March. Both players' 3-point percentages have declined this season, but Monk was the top Sixth Man of the Year candidate until he went down with an injury, averaging 19.0 points per game in last year's playoff game against the Warriors.
In a much different way than Curry, the Warriors' high-flying 21-year-old Jonathan Kuminga could also be a factor from deep. He made 40 percent (4 of 10) from 3-point range against the Kings this season, but his ability to open up the 3-point line for players like Curry and Klay Thompson is limited by his ability to get to the rim. It's his ability to attack. The Kings don't have a rim protector to neutralize Kuminga's explosiveness.
But can the Warriors neutralize Kings stars De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento?
“We knew we had to put two bodies in front of him at all times to stop him,” Warriors rookie Brandin Podzemski said Sunday when asked about Fox. “If you want to win, you have to do it for 48 minutes.”
Podzemski could be one of the few players who may have a protective role for the Foxes at times. Kuminga will also be in the mix, as will Green and Andrew Wiggins. The health of Gary Payton II, who has missed the last three games with a strained left calf, is also important.
Green and Kevon Looney were extremely troublesome for Sabonis throughout the first round last year. Fellow rookie Trayce Jackson-Davis provides a whole new element as a vertical floor spacer and shot-blocking threat. This message came two days before what should be a fascinating game, whether it's four-time champions like Curry, Green and Thompson or rookies like Podzemski and Jackson Davis. It's no surprise to anyone.
Don't leave it all on the hardwood and walk away from the final buzzer with regrets.
“This is going to be a game where we have to leave everything on the floor,” Wiggins said. “Every game we played against them was a fight to the end, a physical, competitive game. So it's definitely going to be a tough battle where we have to leave everything on the floor.”
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