UFC is returning to Louisville, but could the stakes be any lighter?
Topping Saturday's card are middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier and Nassoordin Imavov, who are fighting to stay in an already lagging title race.
Cannonier not only needs to beat Imavov, but he also needs to find a way to erase the memory of his lackluster loss to Israel Adesanya in their championship bout at UFC 276. Imavov is looking for a signature win that will convince higher-ups he deserves to be a pay-per-view mainstay, not just fight-night fodder.
While it's not exactly the showpiece main event for die-hard fans at the KFC Yum! Center, the good news is that the rest of the card has potential for action, and we'd go so far as to say it could be more entertaining than the recent, much-maligned UFC 302 event (though that's not a stretch).
With the title shot in the shadows, buckle up for the first of what will hopefully be a highlight-packed back-to-back card and continue the countdown to UFC 303, where Conor McGregor's return is sure to go off without a hitch.
what: UFC Louisville
where: KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky.
when: on Saturday, June 8. The eight-fight preliminary card will begin at 5 pm ET on ESPN+, followed by the six-fight main card at 8 pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook
Jared Cannonier vs. Nassoordin Imavov
There's plenty of reason to be excited about this main event. Jared Cannonier and Nassoordin Imavov have both had good results in their recent bouts. Cannonier put all his effort into denting Marvin Vettori's strong chin, and Imavov nearly finished Roman Dolidze. This is a matchup with fan-friendly styles. I'm all for it.
I'm not sure I can pick a winner. Cannonier is a strong hitter with good defense and a tendency to be sluggish. Imavov is a fun striker to combine with but lacks the power at the next level. This outcome may come down to whether the judges prefer Cannonier's power or Imavov's volume.
I think Cannonier will come off as the stronger of the two with some well-timed counters and leg kicks throughout the five rounds. The age difference between the two fighters is a concern as the 28-year-old Imavov could use more power in the fourth and fifth rounds, but the 40-year-old Cannonier has shown he uses his energy wisely and this fight should be a back-and-forth affair until the final bell.
Cannonier narrowly won the decision.
choose: gunner
Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby
I've been trying to believe in Dominick Reyes coming back. Really. He's a high-level athlete and is only 34 years old. In theory, he has plenty of time to bounce back at light heavyweight. Dustin Jacoby is not going to be able to one-shot Reyes unless his chin is completely destroyed.
Keep in mind, Reyes hasn't fought in nearly 19 months, with UFC Louisville marking just his second fight since May 2021. It hasn't all been rest and recovery (the former title challenger suffered from blood clots during his hiatus), but in theory his body should have benefited from not having to deal with the rigors of fight camp, right?
Even with my Prince of Positivity hat on, I don't think Reyes will win. To me, he's in the same late stage of his career as former top fighters Tyron Woodley and Tony Ferguson, meaning he looks like a former challenger at first glance. But when he steps into the cage, I see him struggling to pull the trigger and, even worse, struggling to avoid damage.
Jacoby is a skilled kickboxer and even if it took him a round to catch Reyes, he would land more hits than misses in a 15-minute bout. There's a good chance Reyes will avoid the knockout, but Jacoby will likely win on the scorecards.
choose: Jacoby
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Let's not mince words: Raul Rosas Jr. will beat Ricky Tarcios. And if Tarcios gets back up, Rosas will do it again. Again and again.
“Pretty Ricky” is a fun guy and one of MMA's true characters, so I hate to write him off completely here, but even a cursory look at his fights shows he's allergic to takedown defense. He'll try to scramble on the ground with his hands on his feet to test Rosas, but at the end of the day, he hasn't proven he can stop a fast-paced wrestler, which is just who Rosas is.
Tursios' best hope will be to outmaneuver Rosas and take advantage of the 19-year-old's still-developing gas tank. It's conceivable that Tursios could weather the storm in the first two rounds and then overpower Rosas in the third. Rosas is a promising fighter and it will take some time to pinpoint his strengths and weaknesses. At this point in his career, he's always at risk for an upset, but I don't see it happening Saturday.
Rosas suffocated Turcios with nonstop pressure and stopped the bout with ground-and-pound in the third round.
choose: Turcios
Bruno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Striker? Check. Grappler? Check. That's right (bites a reed), we have a good old fashioned striker vs. grappler matchup.
Sure, Dustin Stoltzfus has power in his hands, but going up against Bruno Ferreira would be bad for his health. The muscular Brazilian likes to strike out swinging, and his only goal is usually to knock his opponent unconscious. What Ferreira lacks in size and technique, he makes up for with pure intensity. It only takes one good shot from Ferreira to ruin your opponent's day.
If I had more confidence in Stoltzfus' grappling abilities in this matchup, I would have been happy to predict the upset, but Ferreira is no worse off in that department and has the wrestling defense to force Stoltzfus to attack — and we all know how that ends.
choose: Ferreira
Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Rees
Julian Marquez and Zachary Rees are two tall middleweights, with Marquez standing at 6'2″ and Rees two inches taller. The key to this fight will be who can better control the distance and launch their offense.
It's been a tough time for Marquez, with injuries preventing him from gaining any momentum in his career after suffering consecutive knockout losses since April 2021. Marquez is a fighter-finisher who favors head kicks, so it will be interesting to see if he tries to get on his feet to take down Rees.
It's hard to evaluate Reese's future prospects, as he had easy wins in regional bouts before facing his first UFC-level opponent, Cody Brundage. The experienced Brundage took advantage of Reese being too aggressive from the back and caught him with a slam attack, so it will be interesting to see what adjustments (if any) Reese makes in his sophomore UFC bout.
Marquez has been a pro for over 10 years, but as a fighter he still feels like he's lost his shit, but he has the firepower to take Rees down early. Marquez has never won by decision, and Rees has never relied on the scorecards, so I expect both of those trends to continue and Marquez to dominate Rees in the first round.
choose: Marquez
Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano
Miguel Baeza was also once a promising fighter (there may be a theme on this card), but he's had to overcome in-cage slumps and health issues outside of it to remain relevant in a tough division. Baeza's popularity soared when he stopped Matt Brown with a striking shot in his second UFC appearance, but he's winless in his last three bouts and his future is uncertain.
The same can be said about Punahele Soriano, a rising star in the middleweight division who decided to drop down to 170 pounds after a tough 1-4 record. It makes sense for Soriano to take his punching power down a weight class, as he looked physically inferior at 185 pounds at one point.
This is a chance for a fresh start for both talented 31-year-olds. Unfortunately, only one of them will return and the other may be released soon.
I've always believed in Soriano's talent, but Baeza may have fallen short by moving up a weight class too quickly. Fighting in the wrong weight class seems like an easier problem to fix than fighting in the wrong weight class, so I expect Soriano to do well in his welterweight debut.
Soriano knocked out in the second round.
choose: Soriano
Qualifiers
Thiago Moises defeats Ludovit Klein
Carlos Pratts defeats Charlie Radke
Brad Katona wins. Jesse Butler
Montana De La Rosa wins. Andrea Lee
Daniel Marcos defeats John Castañeda
Eduardo Moura wins. Denis Gomes
Cody Stamann defeats Taylor Lapillas
Ryanne dos Santos wins. Puja Tomar
