Merab Dvalishvili famously stole Sean O'Malley's jacket after his teammate Aljamain Sterling defended his bantamweight title against Henry Cejudo at UFC 288. O'Malley was there to greet “Sugar” Sterling, who was next in line to compete for the belt. A few months later, O'Malley dethroned Sterling to become the new bantamweight champion.
Now Dvalishvili has a chance to take O'Malley's belt.
At UFC 306 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, O'Malley will defend her title against Dvalishvili in the main event, while in the co-main event, UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, who is a coach on this season's The Ultimate Fighter, will face Valentina Shevchenko in a trilogy bout to settle their rivalry and determine the reigning queen of the 125-pound division.
Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim share their first impressions with the title bout now official, plus betting expert Ian Parker explains his best early bets.
Fill in the blank: Would O'Malley-Dvalishvili be a ___________?
Okamoto: This is the biggest win of O'Malley's career. That may seem like an obvious thing to say — it's common wisdom in the world of martial arts that the next fight is always the biggest — but in this case, it's definitely true.
That's kind of wild. that It has long been said that the bantamweight matchup between O'Malley and Dvalishvili would be an interesting and big fight, but would not be the “Sphere main event.” A lot of that has to do with O'Malley. Dvalishvili deserves some credit too. He has looked like the devil in the division in recent years, and while there will be plenty of “Dvalishvili win” predictions, O'Malley is the reason this fight is the Sphere main event. He seems on the brink of victory. wonderfulI believe he is able to stand on this stage because he is destined for stardom, and UFC feels that too.
That alone makes this the biggest fight for O'Malley. UFC is investing a lot of money in promoting this event. The promotion wants this fight to be an extraordinary night. I think UFC CEO Dana White is more interested in making this fight historic than UFC 300 in April or maybe Conor McGregor's comeback. For O'Malley, beating Petr Yan in Abu Dhabi two years ago, winning the title against Aljamain Sterling in Boston last year, and putting up a sterling performance against Marlon Vera in Miami in March were important, but this moment may surpass them all.
Given the footage only available at the Sphere, this could be McGregor's “champ champ” moment at Madison Square Garden, as he could rocket to superstardom with an unforgettable win here.
True or false: Could Dvalishvili be the biggest challenge of O'Malley's career?
Hale: That's true. That's very true. Dvalishvili's skill set could be O'Malley's worst nightmare.
O'Malley's narrow and somewhat controversial decision win over Yan put him on the fast track to a bantamweight title run, and put him well ahead of his peers in the division. O'Malley has primarily faced strikers in his UFC career, but Dvalishvili's relentless speed and determination to drive opponents to the canvas was something he had never encountered before. Sterling's grappling skills were a real threat to O'Malley, but he lacked the explosiveness to land the takedowns necessary to make them work. Dvalishvili fights like he's been fired from a cannon, but O'Malley has never faced anyone like him, and he may never face anyone like him again.
If O'Malley defeats his challenger, it will answer the question of whether he will be certified as a pound-for-pound fighter.
If Grasso beats Shevchenko, will she become the greatest women's flyweight of all time?
Wagenheim: She would certainly make a strong case.Especially considering that Grasso is undefeated in three fights against Shevchenko. But it's not a sure thing, just like Conor McGregor's 13-second knockout of Jose Aldo doesn't make him the best featherweight fighter of all time. Longevity is key. A win at UFC 306 would give Grasso two titles in her career. Shevchenko has won eight, far and away the most among women in the 125-pound division. From 2019 to 2022, “The Bullet” defended her title seven times in a row and is the all-time leader in the division in numerous statistical categories, from knockouts (4) to takedowns (39), most strikes landed (1,597) to fewest strikes taken (1.88 per minute). Historically, Shevchenko has dominated the flyweight division.
Last year's loss to Grasso came three days before Shevchenko's 35th birthday. It's fair to say that the loss was due to the passage of time, not just Grasso himself. And aging may also play a role on September 14th. Another win would be a big step forward for Grasso, who has competed in the flyweight division since 2020 and is still only 30 years old. One day, Grasso may have a resume worthy of being the best 125-pound fighter of all time. But even if he wins his second bout against Shevchenko, Grasso still has work to do.
What are the best early bets for the UFC 306 title fight?
Parker: O'Malley's finish or Dvalishvili's marathon. Dvalishvili must avoid O'Malley's knockout power and turn this into a five-round wrestling match, with O'Malley employing sprawling and brawling tactics until he touches his opponent's chin.
Therefore, I am looking at a prediction that O'Malley will win by TKO/KO and Dvalishvili will win by decision. Dvalishvili has a history of being knocked down in fights, but has always found a way to win, usually by decision. The question is, will he be able to recover if O'Malley takes him down?
Parker: I'm betting on Shevchenko. In the first bout at UFC 285, Shevchenko was on track to defend her title but made a crucial mistake and lost the belt. In the rematch last September, the referee ruled it a draw and Grasso was crowned champion. I still believe Shevchenko is the better fighter no matter how this fight goes, and it's hard to imagine her not correcting her past mistakes in this trilogy bout.
Grasso is dangerous if she can get on her opponent's back, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should return to Kyrgyzstan.
What are your bold predictions for UFC 306?
Okamoto: UFC will be at the Sphere again. White has said that this will be a “one-off” due to the cost of hosting it, and I think he believes that. But “one-off” is a long time, and UFC isn't moving its headquarters out of Las Vegas anytime soon. I have a hard time believing that UFC will put in the effort to learn how to make this event work and not do it again. I think it will work out well, given the time and resources they put into this event. Fighters who aren't on the card will want to watch it and have the experience of fighting there. And ultimately, this event will be too impressive to not do it again. It may take a few years, but if you weren't able to get tickets to UFC 306 at the Sphere, I think you'll get another chance eventually.
Hale: I think Shevchenko will get better and beat Grasso. Sure, Grasso has shown impressive improvement over the last few years, and Shevchenko may be in the twilight years of her career at 36, but she made a huge miscalculation in the first bout and missed her chance to reclaim the title with an erroneous 10-8 scorecard. Barrett spent nearly 45 minutes in the Octagon against Grasso and is a master strategist, and will look to remind everyone why she is the best pound-for-pound fighter in women's MMA.
Wagenheim: Dvalishvili will likely record double figures in takedowns. He's already accomplished this four times in 12 UFC appearances. Unless his challenger is caught early — like his teammate Sterling did when he fought O'Malley last summer — “The Machine” has plenty of time to get to the canvas. Tenacity is his greatest weapon. Against Yan, Dvalishvili landed 11 of his 49 takedown attempts! O'Malley's job isn't to fend off takedowns, but to get back to his specialty: stand-up fighting.
