UFC 304 mailbag: Belal Muhammad silences the doubters, Tom Aspinall ascends, Paddy Pimblett delivers, plus more

UFC 304 went down this past Saturday in Manchester, England, and a whole bunch of stuff happened. Belal Muhammad pulled off the upset, dominating Leon Edwards to become the new welterweight champion; Tom Aspinall avenged his previous loss to Curtis Blaydes with a 60-second obliteration; Paddy Pimblett arrived in the lightweight top 15 by demolishing King Green; and Muhammad Mokaev found a way to get let go from the UFC despite being young, undefeated, and unarguably one of the best fighters in his weight class

There are so many talking points this week and we got a ton of questions, so let’s try to answer as many as we can without writing War and Peace.

Belal Muhammad, welterweight champion

“Is Belal on Paulo’s secret juice?”

To quote President Thomas J. Whitmore: “He did it! The son of a bitch did it!”

Belal Muhammad ate a rash of shit for years from what felt like everyone in the MMA community as he relentlessly campaigned for his shot at the title and redemption against Leon Edwards, and ultimately, he gets the last laugh as “Remember the Name” made it so everyone would have to. He’s the welterweight champion of the world and no one can ever take that away from him. It’s a remarkable story of perseverance and dedication, and you can’t do anything but tip your hat to him, especially given the way he did it.

Ahead of the fight, I was pretty confident Edwards would win because he’s younger, faster, stronger, bigger, hits harder, and has more tools for the matchup. All of that is still true, but I failed to account for the one thing that I think made the difference in this matchup: Belal wanted it more. Saying stuff like that in sports is usually very stupid because everybody wants to win. And perhaps it’s stupid here as well, but on fight night and after re-watching the contest, what stood out to me the most was Belal Muhammad simply refused to be denied. Leon Edwards did not.

Muhammad came out in that fight and immediately set the terms. “I’m going to move forward, I’m going to put on the pace and the pressure, I’m going to hit you until you defend, and then shoot. I’m going to break you.” It was classic Belal, and while Edwards contested it early, he quickly lost the battle of wills, giving ground freely and getting bullied right out of his title.

Belal didn’t win Saturday because he was bigger or stronger or more talented than Leon Edwards. He won because he willed it into being (and he’s very skilled and smart, etc.). Paulo Costa wishes he had that secret juice.

Fighting at 6 a.m.

“Is it fair to expect fighters to be able to perform optimally fighting at any time of day?”

After losing his title, Edwards gave a post-fight interview where he said his body never felt right all week and that he couldn’t get going for the fight, and people of course immediately made the leap suggesting that was probably due to fighting at 6 a.m. in the morning. And there’s a fair chance that’s actually true. I also could not possible care less about this.

This was not some surprise, last-minute fight that sprang up out of nowhere. Leon Edwards knew he’d be fighting at this time of the morning for months. If he failed to prepare his body properly for fighting, that’s entirely on him. Because you know who didn’t have any issues with the time? Belal Muhammad. His body worked just fine!

To me, this entire situation is just like fighters competing at different altitudes. Yes, fighting at 6 a.m. is different, but it’s the same for both parties and you have time to prepare accordingly. As a fan, my expectations — especially for champions! — is that they leave no stone unturned for their fights. If Leon didn’t (and it is an if, because Leon did not blame the loss on the time, remember), he’ll just have to live with that one.

Belal’s first title defense

“Am I the asshole? Usman is the fight to make for Belal! Either Kamaru is back or a Belal win would legitimize his career like few other things would. I’d like to see the new blood fight in 5 rounders/headline first. Thoughts on this match up competitively and commercially?”

I don’t know if you’re an asshole, but you don’t sound like someone I agree with right now.

Kamaru Usman is a terrific fighter and an all-time great. He has a case for being the second greatest welterweight of all-time (people criminally disrespect Matt Hughes because this fandom has the memory of goldfish), he’s well-known, and he shouldn’t come within six counties of a title shot at this point in time.

Call me old fashioned, but I like my title challengers to be guys who have won relevant fights in the weight class in recent history. Aside from the fact that Usman is on a three-fight losing streak (which should be disqualifying for any title shot, frankly), he has not beaten a currently relevant welterweight in more than three years. Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal do not count as relevant, I’m sorry. Gilbert Burns is the most recent opponent Usman’s beaten who has meaningful wins this decade.

Muhammad should defend his title against Shavkat Rakhmonov, who is undefeated and has never been to a decision. If Usman wants a title shot, he needs to beat somebody at welterweight. There are no shortage of them. Get one win and then we can talk.

Leon Edwards

“What are the chances Leon ever gets another shot at the belt?”

I’ll be generous and go with 50/50, because while Edwards has some pretty clear negatives in this regard, he has a few things going for him.

First, Leon is still relatively young. “Rocky” is only 32 years old and he’s now a former champion. “Former champion” has cache and sort of perpetually keeps you in the title conversation, so long as you don’t go on a Tony Ferguson-esque losing streak. Edwards is still young enough and super talented, so a few wins (and a new champion) put him right back in line, especially as a notable figure in a market UFC caters to.

That being said, the downsides are real as well. Edwards was never a beloved champion by fans or the promotion, so he’s not like Usman: He won’t get the “let’s throw him in for a title shot for no apparent reason” treatment. He’s not a particularly exciting fighter nor is he overly charismatic, so he’ll have to win meaningful fights to get back to a title shot, and that’s a lot to ask at welterweight, especially for him. I have a ton of respect for Edwards as a fighter, but the combination of not finishing fights and having periodic lapses during fights means every bout is risky. You roll the dice enough and eventually you roll a 12.

The margin for error is small at the top and it’ll be interesting to see if Edwards can do it, but if I had to guess, I’d say no.

Rocky 2

So the obvious answer is Michael Page in a battle for England, and while I like that idea a lot, there’s another one that is far sillier but also perfect. It’s time to settle the feud: Leon Edwards vs. Jorge Masvidal.

When Edwards was the champion, it would have been insane to give Masvidal a title shot. Now that’s no longer an issue and since Masvidal is still under contract with the UFC, it’s do or die time. There’s still enough heat there to draw interest and it gives Edwards a much-needed rebound fight after the title loss. Let’s do it. The ‘MVP’ fight can wait.

Retreating is just surrender

“Has the last few years shown that a willingness to back yourself up to the fence repeatedly is actually the worst weakness a champion can have? So far its been the death of Leon, Israel Adesanya twice, Tyron Woodley, Anthony Pettis, etc…

I just want to put this here because it speaks to my biggest pet peeve in all of MMA: In this sport, retreat is surrender.

Simply put, there are only a handful of fighters currently competing in MMA who can win while fighting off the back foot. It’s a very specific skill set and it’s way harder to do. Meanwhile, the list of fighters who have vastly overachieved relative to talent because they move forward constantly is too long to list. If you know very little about MMA, 99 times out of 100, the guy moving forward is going to win.

Edwards lost this fight from the opening bell when he consented to Muhammad’s pressure, and things only got worse for him as he willingly moved to the cage. If I were an MMA coach, I’d train with cattle prods and every time someone in the gym stepped backward, I’d zap them. You simply cannot do it. Leon did and paid the price.

Science

“Can chickens be GOATs?”

No, they cannot. You see, I’ve spoken to the scientists, I’ve done the research, and it’s quite clear: Chickens cannot be GOATs. In fact, they’re not even in the same family, order, or class.

Chickens ≠ GOATs. Spread the word.

Tommy Aspinall and Jon Jones

“If we as the MMA community get #TomBeatsJon trending, will Jon want to (eventually) fight Tom instead of Stipe? *I’m not disrespecting Jon’s or Stipe’s resumes, of course, I’m just more interested in a Jon-Tom fight.”

No. Jon Jones will never fight Tom Aspinall because he doesn’t want that smoke. You, sir, are late to the party. I’ve been pioneering the #GaslightJonJones movement for more than a year, and while I’m fairly certain he’s actually caught wind of it, the man still ain’t fighting Tom Aspinall yet. Because he never will.

I want to be extremely clear: I am disrespecting Jon and Stipe’s résumés. Jon has one good win in the past six years and should have two losses in that same time. He openly ducked a rematch with Dominick Reyes, drug his feet on moving to heavyweight when Francis Ngannou was still around, and now insists on fighting a 42-year-old firefighter who has no wins over current UFC fighters and has not even fought in three years. In any other circumstance, the public would be HOWLING at this absurdity.

Jon wants to fight Stipe Miocic for the same reason Jake Paul wants to fight Mike Tyson: It’s a big event that he will win and can tell himself that it’s special and meaningful. It’s pure upside with no risk. And that’s fine, far be it from me to tell people not to lie to themselves. But I don’t have to buy it and neither do you.

Simply put, Jon Jones doesn’t want it with Tom Aspinall. He’s (rightly) concerned that Aspinall will beat him and ruin the thing Jon’s made so central to his legacy: His “undefeated” streak. He won’t risk it.

Prove me wrong, Jon.

Paddy Pimblett

“Has Paddy been widely underestimated — could he fight for a belt some day?”

Both yes and no.

On the one hand, I think most of the criticism surrounding Pimblett for his career has been justified. The man simple is much more popular than he is talented. After all, this is a guy who lost to Jared Gordon, who isn’t exactly a world-beater (sorry for the stray, Gordon). But on the other hand, the idea that Pimblett was a finished product was pretty clearly stupid.

Pimblett is still only 29 years old and he improves just about every time we see him. And in this fight with Green, Pimblett looked the best he ever has, both physically and competitively. Was Pimblett a great fighter when he joined UFC three years ago? No, absolutely not. Is he a great one now? Maybe. He’s certainly working toward it at least.

Development in sports in general, and especially in MMA, is not linear. It takes some fighters longer than others to put it all together, and sometimes they never do. Sometimes a life event happens and it changes a fighter. Maybe having a kid did that for Pimblett or maybe his years and years of dedication and hard work have finally helped him turn a corner. That’s part of the fun of MMA fandom: You get to see the journeys unfold in real time. And if you’re a Pimblett fan, you’ve been having a very good week.

Muhammad Mokaev

“If the UFC chooses not to re-sign Mokaev, where does he end up? ACA? Rizin? Does he challenge Dodson for the BKFC title?”

So as it turns out, the UFC did choose not to re-sign Mokaev, which some people have an issue with. I am not one of them.

Mokaev had about as bad of a week as possible for a guy who extended his undefeated resume to 13-0 (1 NC). He started a brawl, generally acted like an ass repeatedly, and then won a tepid decision (that most media actually scored for Kape) over a guy he allegedly hated. He then just confessed to sucker-punching Kape for the stupidest reason imaginable. A truly baffling level of unawareness.

I have been extremely high on Mokaev for years, even saying he was a future two-division UFC champion. And while I still am high on him as a fighter, the truth is he has some growing up to do. He’s 23 years old and this week he acted like he’s 12. Physically, he is capable of competing with anyone in the world, but is that someone you want to hitch your wagon to promotionally? I wouldn’t.

If UFC had cut him, maybe that’s one thing. But to opt not to re-sign a fighter who has allegedly been difficult to work with behind the scenes, isn’t especially popular, and is now acting out in the most childish ways, that’s reasonable. Mokaev is young. He can go to some other organization and grow up a bit (though not BKFC, you have to punch people there), and then return to the company as an older and wiser man.

And hopefully as a better fighter, too. Because for as much as I like Mokaev, he is not showing the same growth Pimblett has time in and time out. He’s functionally the same fighter he was when he joined the promotion. The man needs to round out both his people skills and his fighting skills while he’s outside the UFC if he ever wants to make good on all his potential.

Refereeing

“Does Mike Beltran yelling really angrily prevent more fouls than taking a point?”

We’ll end here: I don’t often say things like this, but Mike Beltran should not referee anymore. A truly shameful display from him on Saturday.

Mokaev cheated repeatedly and relentlessly and Beltran did nothing about it. Worse actually, Beltran acknowledged that Mokaev was cheating — egregious shorts grabbing, low blow, eye poke, the full gamut — and the only consequence was a stern talking to. I wish I was making this up but a direct quote from Beltran during that fight is, “Don’t put yourself in a position where I have to enforce the rules.” Dude, that’s your job! If you get to a point where you’re yelling at a fighter, you’re well beyond when you should have intervened. Take action!

Until referees start enforcing the rules, every single fighter should cheat their asses off. Because there isn’t really cheating in MMA. Every referee is bad because none of them want to take points (when in fact they should take points for everything other than fence grabs, which should just be giving position), but Beltran was on another level on Saturday.

Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.