Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka made earlier than expected returns.
No, Conor McGregor won't be back on Saturday, but fans have had plenty of time to process that. And thanks to the matchmaking wizardry of Dana White and company, the main event of UFC 303 now has much higher stakes, with Pereira defending his light heavyweight title in a rematch against Prochazka. Their first bout was exciting for as long as it lasted, but the early stoppage left us wanting more. And now, just seven months later, the rematch is happening.
Not only that, but Brian Ortega and Diego Lopez stepped in to take their places, providing some unexpectedly fun side dishes. Jamahal Hill versus Khalil Rowntree Jamahal Hill vs. Carlos Ulberg Anthony Smith vs. Carlos Ulberg … as a replacement for the light heavyweight co-main event. There was some unfortunate pre-fight turmoil, with reports that Ortega's struggles at 145 pounds had led to both fighters moving up to lightweight, but on paper this matchup is still highly anticipated.
Elsewhere on the main card, Anthony Smith will face Roman Dolidze in a surprise light heavyweight bout, recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva will attempt to fend off Macy Chiasson, and Ian Machado Garry will face perennial Bellator welterweight contender Michael “Venom” Page.
what: UFC 303
where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
when: Saturday, June 29. The four-fight early preliminary card will begin at 6 pm ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 8 pm ET, all broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+. The five-fight main card will begin at 10 pm ET and will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(The numbers in parentheses indicate the ranking.) MMA Fighting World Rankings and Pound-for-pound rankingsIngs)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Jiri Prochazka (2)
When these two first met, I confidently picked Alex Pereira because he had the potential to knock him out with one touch. And to my surprise, I was right, even though he didn't completely overpower Jiri Prochazka. It was truly a “vibe” choice, as Jed Meshew would say, and so it was. Prochazka evened the score.
Pereira and Prochazka have very different styles, but they are equally matched. I truly believe that if these two fought 100 times, neither fighter would win the majority of the matches. They both have the striking power to end any fight in an instant.
Pereira has a clear advantage, and it was evident in the first bout. He took advantage of Prochazka's poor leg kick defense and found an opening to land his signature knockout punch. But let's not forget that Prochazka also had his chances. He's a talented striker who can apply power from unconventional angles, so it wouldn't have surprised anyone if the finish had been in the other order. Don't be surprised if that happens on Saturday.
Anyone willing to step in the cage with Pereira multiple times has to be a special kind of psycho, but Prochazka is that exact guy and will benefit from having already faced “Poitan” once. It may sound simplistic, but Prochazka has a greater sense of Pereira's speed and power, and that familiarity might just save him in the rematch.
In a close match, Prochazka scored a knockout herself to tie the score at 1-1.
choose: Prohaska
Brian Ortega (5) vs. Diego Lopez (14)
The Brian Ortega-Diego Lopez weight class change has some ugly shadows of Kelvin Gastelum's fiasco last week, so it's understandable that fans aren't too happy with Ortega right now. Ortega may have tried to make weight this week (emphasis on “may”), but once his team realized he couldn't, it sounds like he contacted Lopez's team late Thursday night and requested a lightweight bout, which makes the situation seem less ominous.
On the other hand, Ortega was preparing to move down to lightweight before the Lopez fight was announced, so he should have known it would be difficult to move up to 145 pounds on short notice, and should have negotiated a different weight class at least 48 hours before the fight. That's ugly.
Who knows how this will affect the fighters tonight, but it certainly doesn't hurt Ortega and it certainly doesn't bode well for Lopez. Apparently Lopez was scheduled to fight at 145 pounds but was told around 3:30 a.m. he'd be fighting at lightweight, so he might be a little tired, which is a problem when facing an opponent known for being especially dangerous in the third round.
Grappling-wise, Lopez is comparable to Ortega on the ground, so this fight will depend a lot on winning scrambles and holding position. From a technical standpoint, I prefer Lopez's stand-up style, but Ortega's striking is more decisive.
I picked Gastelum last week because that would have been my choice, weight confusion or not. I originally favored Lopez for the featherweight bookings, so I'll stick with that logic here, and I don't think the last-minute change hurts his chances much.
choose: Lopez
Anthony Smith (13) vs. Roman Dolidze
It's time for mutant combat!
That's right, Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rowntree were originally scheduled to be the co-main event at UFC 303, but then Rowntree was suspended for a positive drug test, then Carlos Ulberg was called in to fight Hill, but Hill withdrew with a knee injury, then Anthony Smith came in to fill in to fight Ulberg, who then withdrew with an injury. All of these matchups had implications for the light heavyweight title fight.
The same can't be said for the eventual Smith vs. Roman Dolidze bout, but Dolidze deserves credit for stepping up here after fighting at 185 pounds in his previous two bouts.
I'm intrigued to see how Dolidze fares at 205, because he was actually undefeated there before dropping down. This was probably a wise move to avoid facing bigger opponents in the future. Unfortunately, the Georgian maxed out at 185, losing to a few ranked fighters and eventually moving back down to light heavyweight.
Smith is not particularly big for the weight class, but he is at home here and should have the power advantage here. He will grapple with Dolidze, wear him down early and look to land some punches of his own late in the rounds. Stylistically, this fight is about the finish and I expect the more combat-seasoned Smith to be the first fighter to out-punch Dolidze and beat him at range.
choose: Smith
Mayra Bueno Silva (3, P4P-16) vs. Macy Chiasson (8)
Macy Chiasson is always close to a breakthrough, and a fight against Mayra Bueno Silva will give her another chance to establish herself as a top contender.
Want more stories? Silva's ratings have fluctuated wildly over the past year. She captured our hearts by ending Holly Holm's reign of terror, then had that performance undone by taking ADHD medication, ended up challenging for the vacant bantamweight title, and then put in an entirely forgettable performance in a loss to Raquel Pennington. It goes without saying that even with the numbers next to her name, she's not the overwhelming favorite here.
It's easy to root for Chiasson, because she's so impressive at her best and the women's 135-pound division is in desperate need of fresh blood. But it's disappointing to see her struggle on the scales and lose to the higher echelons of the division where Silva currently sits. She has the athleticism and experience to overcome the odds now; she just needs to prove it.
I've been fooled by Chiasson in the past, but I'm going to go ahead and predict that UFC 303 will be the start of big things for her, with Chiasson winning by decision.
choose: Chiasson
Ian Machado-Garry (8) vs. Michael Page (T13)
Be prepared, this fight could get awful.
With all due respect, this style of matchup doesn't look like a hard fight to me. Ian Machado Garry and Michael Page are very skilled and knockouts are not uncommon, but they are also smart and don't force any action if there is even the slightest chance that it will give them an advantage. Like it or not, this is going to be a chess match.
Who will be the first surprise? My guess is Paige. Young Gary is expected to have more energy and, if the judges approve, will be rewarded for the rare moments where he steps forward and lets go. Paige has been involved in some messy split calls in the past, so let's hope that doesn't happen.
It would be much more entertaining than if Page showed Garry some highlight reel technique and made him the center of attention, but that's a stretch, so I expect Garry to win a boring 3 round bout on the scorecards.
choose: Garry
Qualifiers
Joe Pifer defeats Marc-Andre Barrio
Cub Swanson defeats Andre Fili
Charles Jourdan defeats Jean Silva
Peyton Talbot defeats Giannis Ghemouli
Gillian Robertson (13) defeated Michelle Waterson Gomez
Martin Budai defeats Andrei Arlovski
Carlos Hernandez defeats Rei Tsuruya
Ricky Simon beats Vinicius Oliveira
