This article is part of the Drake's Takes series.
UFC 300 fight breakdown and DFS picks: Drake's take
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 300 card have been announced. Courtesy of Drake Burden, we provide detailed analysis of betting and lineup strategies, as well as predictions for the entire event.
Deiveson Figueiredo (22-3-1) v. Cody Garbrandt (14-5-0)
Deiveson Figueiredo – Height: 5'5″ – Reach: 68″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~17th place out of 22 wins
Cody Garbrandt – Height: 5'8″ – Reach: 65″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~11th place out of 14 wins
DFS perspective: This is the perfect way to kick off UFC 300. Unfortunately for Garbrandt, Figueiredo is a much better all-around fighter. Garbrandt has power and could potentially knock him out like he did in recent fights, but it's unlikely. Figueiredo should have a dominant performance against the former champions and is one of my favorite plays for DFS.
UFC 300 Designated Fighter: Figueiredo
Bobby Green (31-15-1) v. Jim Miller (37-17-0)
Bobby Greene – Height: 5'10″ – Reach: 71″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
～20th place out of 31 wins
Jim Miller – Height: 5'8″ – Reach: 71″ – Southpaw
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
～27th place out of 37 wins
DFS perspective: Miller, who fought in both UFC 100 and 200, fulfilled his wish to fight at UFC 300. He won both matches, so he wants that. But unless he can force Green into a compromising position, I don't think he'll win this match. Green is faster, more active, and has better striking, so he should be able to avoid submission attempts thrown by Miller. I don't think DFS without finishing will get a high score in this game.
UFC 300 Pick: Green
Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) v. Marina Rodriguez (14-0-0)
Jessica Andrade – Height: 5'1″ – Reach: 62″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~18th place out of 25 wins
Marina Rodriguez – Height: 5'6″ – Reach: 65″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~8th place out of 17 wins
DFS perspective: After looking lackluster in the past few games, the girls looked rejuvenated in their recent win. Rodriguez will have an advantage on the feet with that defensive range, but that's probably her only advantage. Andrade has much better power and a much better ground game, and I expect her to take advantage of that. Andrade should win and score well as a DFS.
UFC 300 Pick: Andrade
Jalyn Turner (14-7-0) v. Renato Moicano (18-5-1)
Jalin Turner – Height: 6'3″ – Reach: 77″ – Southpaw
~Loud volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~14th place out of 14 wins
Renato Moicano – Height: 5'11″ – Reach: 72″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~10th place out of 18 wins
DFS perspective: Moicano's biggest weapon is his ground game and ability to find submissions. He will have a hard time executing his game plan against the much taller Turner. Turner also has a solid ground game and is a much better striker and should have no problem keeping this one within range. However, this match is likely to be low-scoring without a finish, as some of the grapples are expected to be canceled out.
UFC 300 Nominated Fighter: Turner
Sodiq Yusaf (13-3-0) v. Diego Lopez (23-6-0)
Sodiq Yousaf – Height: 5'9″ – Reach: 71″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~7th place out of 13 wins
Diego Lopez – Height: 5'11″ – Reach: 72″ – Orthodox
~ Volume is low
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~21st out of 23 wins
DFS perspective: The two are pretty similar in terms of leg power, but Yousaf throws more volume. The biggest difference in this fight is Lopez's ground game, with Lopez having a huge advantage. Expect Lopez to get it done early and often, giving DFS clear wins and solid scores.
UFC 300 Pick: Lopez
Holly Holm (15-6-0) v. Kayla Harrison (16-1-0)
Holly Holm – Height: 5'8″ – Reach: 69″ – Southpaw
~Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~8th place out of 15 wins
Kayla Harrison – Height: 5'8″ – Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~12th place out of 16 wins
DFS perspective: Harrison is *supposed* to dominate the entire fight. She is a Judo World Champion and has several other qualifications including being a former champion of PFL Promotions. At 43 years old, Holm's matches are fairly predictable. She continues to fight against the cage at range or in the clinch, but I don't think she can hold Harrison against the cage for long. Keep an eye out for UFC rookies coming out on top.
UFC 300 Pick: Harrison
Calvin Kattar (23-7-0) v. Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0)
Calvin Kattar – Height: 5'11″ – Reach: 72″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~13th place out of 23 wins
Aljamain Sterling – Height: 5'7″ – Reach: 71″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~11th place out of 23 wins
DFS perspective: It's been a while since Kattar fought a sterling-level grappler, and it probably won't end well for him. Given his impressive pedigree, he would have a pretty good chance of scoring an upset if he can defend the takedown. However, I predict Sterling will eventually take to the mat and suffer his second consecutive early loss.
UFC 300 Designated Fighter: Sterling
Jiri Prochaska (29-4-1) v. Aleksandar Rakic (14-3-0)
Jiri Prochazka – Height: 6'3″ – Reach: 80″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
– 28th place, 29 wins
Aleksandar Rakic - Height: 6'4″ – Reach: 88″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~10th place out of 14 wins
DFS perspective: The odds should be reversed in this fight. I don't know why Rakic is the favorite to win, but he shouldn't be. He doesn't pitch much and has little ground game, so his only path to victory is a knockout. Prochaska is the better fighter and will likely finish this fight. Prochaska is a great play in any contest.
UFC 300 Pick: Prochaska
Bo Niccal (5-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (10-5-0)
Beau Nickal – Height: 6'1″ – Reach: 76″ – Southpaw
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~5th place out of 5 wins
Cody Brundage – Height: 6'0″ – Reach: 72″ – Orthodox
~ Volume is low
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~8th place out of 10 wins
DFS perspective: Why is Brundage in this match? Knickal by complete and utter domination.
UFC 300 Pick: Nickal
Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) v. Arman Tsarukyan (21-3-0)
Charles Oliveira – Height: 5'10″ – Reach: 74″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~31st out of 34 wins
Arman Tsarukyan – Height: 5'7″ – Reach: 72″ – Orthodox
~Moderate volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~14th place out of 21 wins
DFS perspective: This is also a fight where the odds should probably be reversed. Oliveira competed against the best and the best in the division and even became a champion at one point. This will be Tsarukyan's toughest fight yet, and while there is a chance he will win, he is not sure if he will. It's going to be a close fight for almost the entire match, but I expect Oliveira to get through this match.
UFC 300 Pick: Oliveira
Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) v. Max Holloway (25-7-0)
Justin Gaethje – Height: 5'11″ – Reach: 70″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~21st out of 25 wins
Max Holloway – Height: 5'11″ – Reach: 69″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~13th place out of 25 wins
DFS perspective: This is probably the best fight on the card and will be an absolute banger. I have high hopes that both players will do their best wherever they can. There will be blood. Damage will occur. Everything will be there. Gaethje has the power edge, but I'm going with Holloway and his volume to get this done. GPP contests target both because the winner has to create the best one.
UFC 300 Designated Fighter: Holloway
Zhang Weili (24-3-0) v. Xiao Nanyan (17-3-0)
Weili Zhang – Height: 5'4″ – Reach: 63″ – Switch
~Loud volume
~ Plus Wrestling/Grappling
~19th place out of 24 wins
Yang Xiaonan – Height: 5'5″ – Reach: 63″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
～9th place out of 18 wins
DFS perspective: I don't think anyone can challenge this version of Weili and win. She is probably the best female fighter in the world right now, and she should have no problem defending her belt in this match.
UFC 300 Pick: Chan
Alex Pereira (9-2-0) v. Jamahal Hill (12-1-0)
Alex Pereira – Height: 6'4″ – Reach: 79″ – Orthodox
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~7th place out of 9 wins
Jamahal Hill – Height: 6'4″ – Reach: 79″ – Southpaw
~Loud volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~7th place out of 12 wins
DFS perspective: This is also a match where there will be a lot of back and forth. Both fighters are full of power and volume, making this a solid fight that should be a goal in every contest. Hill will likely struggle to find success as he has never faced a powerful sniper like Pereira, but he has the power to end this at any time. However, I expect Pereira to defend the belt with an early knockout.
UFC 300 Pick: Pereira
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FanDuel MMA Score
movement score
Critical Strike = 0.6 points
Takedown = 6 points
Takedown defense = 3 points
Knockdown = 12 points
Submission attempt = 5 points
Battle end bonus
1st round win = 100 points
2 rounds won = 75 points
3 rounds won = 50 points
4 rounds won = 35 points
5 rounds won = 25 points
Victory by decision = 20 points
grading notes
- Significant strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by the official scorer.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks down an opponent with debilitation for a period of time deemed to be a significant amount of time by the official scorer.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
movement score
Strike: +0.2 points
Significant Strike (SS): +0.2 points
Control time: +0.03 points/sec
Takedown (TD): +5 points
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 points
Knockdown (KD): +10 points
Battle end bonus
1st round win (1rW+): +90 points
2 rounds won (2rW+): +70 points
3 rounds won (3rW+): +45 points
4 rounds won (4rW+): +40 points
5 rounds won (5rW+): +40 points
Win by decision (WBD+): +30 points
Quick win bonus: +25 points
(The battle will end within 60 seconds)
grading notes
- Significant strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered “power strikes” by the official scorer.
- A significant strike counts as both a strike and a major strike, and is worth a total of 0.4 points.
- Control time is the time spent in a dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks down an opponent with what the official scorer deems to be a significant amount of time.
- If the first round is won within 60 seconds, the winning fighter will receive a quick win bonus.
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