This is my 2024-25 NHL Picks There are also some early futures bets for next season.
The Florida Panthers recently hoisted the Stanley Cup, but the reigning champions aren't the only NHL team in the running for the award. The 2024-25 season doesn't start until Oct. 4, but there's already been a lot of activity with the recent NHL draft and free agent signings.
The 2024-25 season will also see the debut of the NHL's newest franchise, the Utah Hockey Club.
In fact, this team is one of the ones I am most excited about heading into the upcoming NHL season.
Check both below.
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2024 NHL Picks
Utah Hockey Club makes playoff appearance
When the 2024-25 Stanley Cup outright market first opened in June, Utah was one of the teams that appeared to be undervalued by oddsmakers ahead of free agency and the draft. New owners Ryan and Ashley Smith, in particular, were reportedly eager to be championship contenders in the organization's inaugural campaign, so the team was expected to make some moves to be competitive next year.
That's why I was excited to see how far Utah could make the playoffs. That market is a more logical way to target Utah than winning the Cup outright. While Utah's roster is still a long way from being a true Western powerhouse like Edmonton or Dallas, it's pretty close to the wild-card group of teams oddsmakers are expecting.
Utah has +190 odds to make the playoffs, which I think is clearly worthwhile, especially considering the team has made some solid win-oriented moves this offseason.
Utah made a big move by acquiring Mikhail Sergachev, a potential bona fide No. 1 defenseman, in a trade, and while Tampa received a reasonable package in JJ Moser, Connor Geekie and two draft picks, the move clearly boosts Utah's chances next season.
Utah took another big gamble on defenseman John Marino, who the Devils found unnecessary after a down year and a crowded defensive line. Marino has had some great moments in his career and at just 27 years old, he seems like a smart bet to bounce back in a new situation.
The Marino trade is similar to GM Bill Armstrong's acquisition of Shawn Darge last offseason, which worked out pretty well given Darge's excellent play this year.
With Sergachev and Marino joining Duruji and Juuso Valimaki in the top four, Utah now has a defense on par with the other wild-card contenders in the West.
Arizona did well offensively last year, averaging 3.10 goals per game, but that was mainly due to a solid top-nine front line, and Utah should be in a good position to improve on those numbers this year with the help of a more efficient defense that can help direct play in the right direction.
Many of the club's key forwards have improved since last season and should form a strong attacking force. Young players like Logan Cooley, Matthias Macelli and Dylan Gunter should be able to perform even better this season. Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz should once again be bona fide top linemen.
Utah's goaltending duo will continue to consist of Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka in 2024-25. Goalies are difficult to predict, but that point was amply proven last season with Ingram's excellent play with a +8.7 GSAx, while Vejmelka struggled with a -6.7 GSAx despite entering the season as the projected starter.
Ingram may not be as effective as he was last season, but Vejmelka has also proven he can play much better than what was seen in 2023-24.
Not many teams have a strong goaltending corps heading into next season, and Utah is one of them, but overall, the team has a good goaltending corps and will likely perform at league average.
Another perspective worth considering that can't be built into any model is that the team will benefit from retaining all of the same peripheral edge as other NHL franchises, something it didn't have last season when Arizona's organization was still strapped financially.
Arizona has had to make savings on lodging, catering, coaching and other amenities that could be provided with increased financial support. The players would certainly benefit from improvements on that front, and morale seems very high heading into this season.
Utah's roster doesn't have the glaring flaws one would expect given the team's +190 odds to make the playoffs, and it has a good mix of proven talent and young players who are ready to step up.
I believe the Utah Hockey Club will have a strong first season.
pick: Utah Hockey Club to make the playoffs (+190 on DraftKings)
20-1 pick for NHL's top defenseman
Offensive ability remains the most important factor in winning the Norris Trophy, which is the biggest reason to back Rasmus Dahlin in this market.
Rasmus's special offensive ability as a defensive lineman led to him being the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2018. He was a leading candidate for the Norris Trophy last summer after scoring 73 points in 78 games in 2022-23, but finished with just 59 points in a very disappointing 2020 season with the Sabres.
Former coach Don Granato made tactical changes to make the Sabres a more defensively competent team, but the team's offensive play ultimately took a major step back, producing just 2.98 goals per game.
It's hard to say the Sabres will be much more effective offensively this season with Lindy Ruff back at the helm, but even if Tage Thompson and Jack Quinn can just have healthier seasons, the Sabres could see some resurgence.
The increased productivity of the team will be an advantage for Darling in this market.
Especially if a new coaching regime and a healthy Thompson help improve the power play.
The Sabres ranked 29th last season with just 16.6% success rate when using the man advantage, but they should be able to improve on that this season.
Regular Sabres observers would be happy to tell you that Darling was far better last season than he was given credit for, and the underlying numbers are consistent with that idea, with Darling's expected goals from replacement +20.7 ranking seventh among defensemen.
If I had more faith in the Sabres' chances of finally making the playoffs again this season, I would have been a big fan of this bet. Still, if Buffalo bounces back with a respectable season, Darling will be the main reason for it, and the +2000 odds we're getting are pretty good that Darling will reach his highest potential this season.
pick: Rasmus Dahlin to win the Norris Trophy (+2000 on bet365 and DraftKings)
