Prop Bet #1: Lo' Total Assists
Despite losing their last two games in a row, the Orlando Magic's rise is justified. The Magic currently sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a 37-28 record, thanks to one of the best defenses in the NBA and, of course, the development of young talent. Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and perhaps most importantly, Paolo Banchero.
The current Rookie of the Year has basically increased his production across the board. This season, he's averaging 22.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, and his field goal percentage has increased significantly.
With all of this in mind, I think the odds on Paulo Banchero's assist market tonight against the Brooklyn Nets are too high.
As previously mentioned, Banchero is averaging 5.2 assists per game this season, which has actually dropped to 4.8 assists per game over the past nine games. I think this number is partially due to the fact that the Nets have been in a very bad situation recently.
But Brooklyn should come into this game feeling confident after the upset against the Cleveland Cavaliers and will be mostly healthy for this matchup. The Nets aren't the best defensive team in the association, but they do a great job of limiting assists. Brooklyn ranks seventh in the NBA in terms of opponent assists per possession.
Banchero has played below that number in seven of his last nine games, so even money is a bonus here.
Paolo Banchero Prop: Less than 5.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Zion costs less than a dime.
In Covers' office, the New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get a lot of buzz as a major target to win the Western Conference championship.
Quietly, the Pels have gone 13-4 in their last 17 games overall, moving them into fifth place in the West standings. The only teams ranked higher than New Orleans in terms of net rating are the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Balanced on both ends of the floor, deep and healthy. That includes Zion Williamson. Hard to believe, right? Williamson is healthy and is averaging 22.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists this season.
However, Williamson and the team will have a tough matchup against another potential contender, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who could get a big boost tonight with the potential return of Donovan Mitchell.
The Cavs may be able to use Miscell's offensive punch, but the defensive effort remains the same. Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA on that end of the floor, ranking third in defensive percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage. They also do a great job of blocking passing lanes.
So with his hands in his face all the time, it might be difficult to rack up assists against the Cavs, who rank fifth in the NBA in opponent assists per possession.
Zion Williamson has assist odds of 5.5 and is available for plus money. These numbers are coming because Zion has had a good assist game lately. However, when you consider that their opponents are teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers, you can see how this number is a little high.
Despite this outburst of assists, Williamson has only surpassed that number in three of his past six games. I will support the under with plus money in a tough matchup.
Props to Zion Williamson: Assists less than 5.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
Prop Bet #3: Kings Touch
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are doing everything they can to slowly climb up the Western Conference standings. They have won five of their last seven games and are currently in ninth place in the West Division.
One of the teams the Lakers will be chasing is tonight's opponent, the Sacramento Kings, who currently sit in seventh place, two games above LA. Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Kings are kryptonite. Of course, that's a team with seemingly unlimited snipers.
The Kings used their shooting ability to defeat the Lakers three times this season, giving them the tools to win again.
The Lakers have had inconsistent efforts on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 17th in D rating and 18th in opponent effective field goal percentage. But it borderline feels like they're being lazy.
LA ranks fifth in the NBA in 3-point attempts and third-most made 3-pointers per possession this season, while ranking 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
The Kings have five players making at least 4.7 threes per game, and all drain at least 35.5% of their attempts.
My focus tonight is De’Aaron Fox odds. The starting point guard makes the most threes on the Kings, with 7.6 per game at a 36.6% clip. Well, the Foxes have had a bit of a slump, but they seem to have come out of it last night with a 3-4-5 record against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Fox has hit at least three threes in two of his three meetings with the Lakers this season. Given the price we're getting here, backing him to go 3 out of 4 is good value.
Props to De’Aaron Fox: 2.5+ threes (+120 on FanDuel)