Prop Bet #1: Money Middleton
It's amazing how much the Milwaukee Bucks resemble legitimate contenders with a healthy Khris Middleton. Of course, this isn't surprising since Middleton was an integral part of the Bucks' championship run.
However, he was sidelined so much due to injury that I started to forget how impactful he was as an offensive player when he was right. The good news is that after missing 16 consecutive games, Middleton appears to be in great shape.
Chriss went 8-15 in his first game back against the Suns and 8-11 in his next game against the Celtics.
And he showed off all his offensive weapons. He made pull-up threes off the dribble, got to the free throw line, attacked the rim in transition and cut smartly around the basket. He's also Giannis' favorite pick-and-roll partner, so he takes a lot of quality shots in the half court as well.
But he's also used to hitting and making difficult shots. He posted up and scored on a variety of quality defenders, including Jayson Tatum. When he's taking shots, they're literally unguardable shots. He did a great job of varying the amount of shots he took and keeping opponents guessing, finishing with 22 points in both games.
Khris Middleton's odds remain skeptical of his play after such a long layoff, but I've seen enough in his two games back that I'm very optimistic about Middleton's health and his game. I'm encouraged.
khris middleton prop: 14.5 points or more (-110 points during sports interaction)
Prop Bet #2: Carom Curry
The Golden State Warriors are one of the smallest teams in the association, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the largest. It would be reasonable to think that the former will struggle on the glass and the latter will prevail.
But those assumptions are completely wrong. The Warriors are a better rebounding team than the Timberwolves, not just on a pound-for-pound basis.
With Stephen Curry and the other Warriors guards focused on fighting on the glass, the Warriors can only play small ball.
Curry's rebounding is a truly underappreciated attribute of his game. He has been in the 85th percentile among all point guards in defensive rebound percentage for most of his career, according to Cleaning the Glass. He hasn't quite reached that level this season, but he's continued to put up some strong games on the glass in recent weeks that hint at a return to form.
Curry is averaging 5.8 rebounds in his last 10 games and has grabbed four or more rebounds in seven of those 10 games. He had double-digit rebounds twice during that span.
The Timberwolves are also without one of their better rebounders in Karl-Anthony Towns, and his nominal successor, Naz Reid, has far less influence on the board. So despite the surface-level differences between these teams, I think there's great value in these Stephen Curry odds.
steph curry prop: 3.5 rebounds or more (-130 at bet 365)
Prop bet #3: Harden in tough times.
It feels like forever ago that James Harden was with the Philadelphia 76ers, but he actually started the season as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. This is James' first game against his old team, but I'm counting on one of the most reliable motivators in all of sports to help him win against this prop mean.
These James Harden odds are set up as if this is just another game against one of the bottom teams in the NBA, but for James, it's much more than that. Daryl Morey, Philadelphia's general manager and Harden's longtime backer and confidant, rejected Harden last summer rather than offer him a long-term contract.
James held out until Morey agreed to a trade to the Los Angeles Clippers, and played at an All-Star level for most of the season.
Harden may not be at the rim much anymore, but he's still quite capable as a scorer. He's been successful and making catch-and-shoot threes in the playoffs with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, and he's still making his own threes at a high clip (40.3%).
The Clippers typically have good floor balance, spacing the floor and great rim rolling up the middle, allowing Harden to score one-on-one. Although he can't make free throws at the historic level he once did, his 14.9% foul percentage is still an elite record.
The 76ers' defense is also pretty dire without Joel Embiid, who has been ranked 23rd in the NBA since February. Expect Harden to get some revenge on Sunday.
james harden prop: 16.5 points or more (-110 points during sports interaction)
