Timberwolves Tiebreaker and NBA Playoff Scenario Guide

With one game left in the 2023-24 NBA regular season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are currently in a three-way tie for first place in the Western Conference with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

As it stands, the Thunder have the No. 1 seed with a combined win tiebreaker against the Timberwolves and Nuggets, but a lot can still change heading into the final game of the regular season.

Here's the NBA's complete breakdown of playoff seeds, which are still to be determined heading into the final day of the regular season.

(Editor's note: The left side of the tree is the winner of each game, and the right side is the resulting seed value.)

What's interesting about the playoff tiebreakers is that even though the Thunder have a three-way tiebreaker, the Timberwolves have individual tiebreakers against both the Thunder and Nuggets.

This means the Timberwolves would need to beat the Phoenix Suns and lose to either the Thunder or Nuggets in order to finish as the No. 1 seed.

The problem with counting on the Thunder's loss is that their opponent, the Dallas Mavericks, rested most if not all of their rotation players, similar to Friday night's loss to the league-worst Detroit Pistons. It means letting it happen. The Thunder are currently 19-point favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook.

This leaves the Nuggets facing the Memphis Grizzlies, who are 27-54 and on the surface don't look like favorites to lose. The problem is that the Nuggets may be resting most of their players for the game.

If the Nuggets value additional rest over the possibility of playing as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, they could try to give the No. 1 seed Timberwolves an opportunity to potentially avoid a second-round game against Minnesota. It is unknown whether there are any. seeds, or a combination of both. Keep in mind that a win for OKC and Minnesota on Sunday would give Denver the No. 3 seed, so the Nuggets' chances of beating the Grizzlies may not matter.

Either way, Timberwolves fans should root for the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have the seventh-best lottery odds and should be able to win the game without jeopardizing their draft position. The group Memphis is sending out on Sunday almost defeated a full-strength Los Angeles Lakers team on Friday, so they have some ability.

A win against the Suns would allow the Timberwolves to finish no higher than the No. 2 seed and at least secure home court in the first two rounds. If the Timberwolves lose, they will be out of contention for the No. 1 seed, and if the Thunder and Nuggets win, they could fall to the No. 3 seed.

In that scenario, the Nuggets would finish as the No. 2 seed, potentially leading to a second-round matchup between Denver and Minnesota. This would be a potential disaster scenario, as it would be difficult for the Timberwolves to win a series against the Nuggets without home court advantage.

There are still five teams the Timberwolves could face in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. These teams include the New Orleans Pelicans, Suns, Lakers, Sacramento Kings, and Golden State Warriors.

If the Timberwolves Finish as the No. 1 seed, All five teams mentioned above could potentially play as the 8th seed. Either the Pelicans or Suns will take No. 6 on Sunday and avoid the play-in, but the remaining four teams will still play.

In this case, the Timberwolves would know their opponent until Friday, April 19, just two days before the series begins. That would put the Wolves at a slight scouting disadvantage, but they would have a big rest advantage and could theoretically play against lower-ranked opponents.

If it's Minnesota Finished as 2nd seedThis seems like the most likely outcome, but it would still result in all five teams competing. The Wolves will play the winner of the 7/8 play-in tournament on Tuesday, April 16th.

The home court team will be either the Pelicans or the Suns. The road team will most likely be the Lakers, who secure eighth place with a win over New Orleans on Sunday.

If the Lakers lose, the Sacramento Kings will likely beat the struggling Portland Trail Blazers and finish in eighth place. If both the Lakers and Kings lose, the Warriors can take the No. 8 spot with a win against the Utah Jazz.

In the worst case scenario, Minnesota finishes as No. 3 seed, the first round opponent will be either the Pelicans or the Suns. If the Pelicans defeat the Lakers, the No. 6 seed will be confirmed. If New Orleans loses, the Suns can take that spot if they beat the Timberwolves.

Given that the Pelicans and Suns are both tough regular season matchups for the Timberwolves, a win over the Suns is paramount as the only way to avoid both teams is to earn the top two seeds. .

A Wolves win and a Nuggets loss would clinch the top seed, give Minnesota home court advantage through the Western Conference Finals, and further improve their chances of avoiding those two teams.