Forged in the flames of Jacques Lemaire's defense-first philosophy, the Minnesota Wild spent nearly two decades developing a reputation for stingy defense. They also had a further reputation for being boring. They bucked that trend to some extent since Kirill Kaprizov took over in 2020, ranking ninth in goals per game in 2020-21 and fifth in 2021-22.
When the Wild combined that defensive reputation with superstar scoring in 2021-22, it was something special. Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello attacked opponents and ranked 16th in points allowed per game. They scored 113 standing points, placing them in the top five in the NHL.
The following season saw an erosion of the pillars of Minnesota's defensive identity. Alex Goligoski and Jon Merrill were important players on the roster in 2021-22, but now they spend most of their time in the press box. Matt Dumba left in the 2023 offseason and brought back a physical presence. Going back even further, the Wild acquired Ryan Suter in 2021. Although he's not the most popular name in town, Suter's acquisition was more for team culture and salary cap benefits than on-ice performance.
Zach Bogosian, Declan Chisholm and Brock Faber replaced Minnesota on defense. Chisholm is fun to watch and plays his role well, but mostly as a role player. Although he performed well in his first full-time appearance, he is already 24 years old. He's rare for a player to enter the NHL this late and develop into a top-four defenseman.
Bogosian also played in this season. However, his performance in 2023-24 is his best in the past three years, and he will turn 34 in July.
This usually indicates regression is coming, and his play from 2021 to 2023 was barely up to standards for an NHL roster. This kind of long shot usually becomes a lightning rod for fan criticism. Examples from '23-'24 include Goligoski, Merrill, and Marcus Johansson.
That leaves a lot of room for Faber to pick up. But even if he develops into a player who can make up for what the Wild lost as a role player, it won't be enough. Minnesota's other top four defensive players appear to be candidates for regression.
Brodin, Middleton, and Spurgeon each have stories that seem eternal. Spurgeon is an unstoppable underdog. He is probably the best active NHL defenseman to play under 5 feet 9 inches and is one of the top 20 defensemen in the league, regardless of height. Jake Middleton is his throwback. His parents raised him as a blue-collar man, working as a bricklayer in the off-season. Perhaps that is why he is built like a brick barn. Then there's Jonas Brodin, a Swedish genius who specializes in smooth skating.
Minnesota's top three feels like an institution, one that is nearing the end of its lifespan. Brodin will be 31 next season, Middleton will be 29, and Spurgeon will be 35 in November. It may not sound that old, but these people will almost certainly regress. According to HockeyViz.com research, defensemen's offensive, defensive, and shorthanded peaks are at ages 22, 25, and 27, respectively.
There is little hope that these three players will age gracefully. Each already has injury issues.
Brodin suffered two injuries last season. He suffered an upper body injury that kept him sidelined for about a month, as well as an apparent leg injury that caused his knee to twist under his foot. This is a long-term concern, as speculation is that there may be ligament damage, which could affect skating.
Spurgeon started last season with a shoulder injury in a preseason game. Next, and much more concerning, were his hip and back surgeries. As exceptional as Spurgeon was playing prior to surgery, major surgery is a current and future concern for an athlete this age.
It is difficult to estimate how often Middleton's disease will recur upper body injury Maybe from the second half of last season, The Athletic He reported that he “suffered a knee injury, but it healed after the season.” Knee problems often have residual effects after treatment and recur more often than the average injury. Additionally, his physical brand of hockey doesn't bode well for avoiding the cuts and bruises that come with Lunch Bucket's style of play.
Injuries are a double-edged sword. Not only does it become more difficult to recover from injury as you get older, but there are signs across sports that injuries are a major cause of age-related decline.
If the Wild are struggling for a Stanley Cup spot, running back a late-inning defensive corps won't be a problem. However, they finished the season with 87 points and a roster that has consistently been eliminated in the first round.
Even with the acquisition of a second-line winger and his health, the Wild are not contenders for the Stanley Cup in 2024-25. By the time this roster gets a chance to compete, this top four will no longer be Infinity Stones. They would be Brock Faber and some old guys.
It is unlikely that reinforcements will arrive by then. Minnesota has only drafted two defensive players in the first round in the past decade. Carson Lambos in 2021 and Filip Johansson in 2018. Even more shocking, Minnesota has only drafted three other defensemen in the second or third round: Ryan O'Rourke (2nd round, 2020) and Louie Belpedio (3rd round). , 2014), Demon Hunt (3rd round, 2020). None of these players are projected to be top-pair defensemen, leaving a big hole to Faber's left long-term.
All of this puts a huge damper on an exciting forward group that is poised to break out over the next couple of seasons. Even if the front office gets to a 1.000 batting average by re-signing Kaprizov, adding a second-line forward this offseason, bringing in Danila Yurov, and developing Marat Husnutdinov and Liam Ogren, someone will still be able to hit the net. We have to protect the front. Jesper Wallstedt will also have to become an elite goalkeeper.
can't believe it? Let's take a look at the teams whose key defenseman will be in the playoffs. The best-case scenario is the New York Rangers, led by Adam Fox. The six best players after Fox are five forwards and goaltender Igor Shesterkin, one of the top five goalies in the NHL.
The Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks are close, but there's no other perfect analogy. They had three or four elite forwards and goaltenders Linus Ullmark and Thatcher Demko, respectively, who played incredibly well throughout the regular season.
Each of these playoff contenders is playing the fight for their lives in their basements. Jake Sanderson of the Ottawa Senators, Vince Dunn of the Seattle Kraken, Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Noah Dobson of the New York Islanders had great all-around performances. athletic Player analysis model. However, by April, no one had a serious shot at the Stanley Cup.
At this point, it seems impossible for the Wild to regain that boring defensive identity. Why do we do that? The 2020s gave fans perhaps the best hockey in franchise history. But without that identity, Minnesota needs more than just a series of successful front office moves.
They need to reinvent their identity.
