LAS VEGAS (AP) — The Celtics are the overwhelming favorites to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday, with Boston likely to hoist its record-tying 18th pennant.
But at least at BetMGM Sportsbook, the money is flowing to the Dallas Mavericks.
Senior trader Halvor Egeland said Monday that 80% of the bets were on Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Mavs winning their second NBA title. Boston's odds of winning were -225, meaning you'd have to bet $225 to win $100.
The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites going into the series opener, but 63% of bets are on the Mavericks covering the spread, while Dallas has 70% of bets on them winning the game at +200.
“Fundamentally, the public believes in the Mavericks,” Egeland said.
Despite this, the Celtics odds have remained consistent and stable at BetMGM as well as other sportsbooks. Egeland said that while professional bettors have largely stayed away from the series, seeing little value in it, he doesn't expect the odds to be significantly affected.
“We think this is the right way to bet,” Egeland said. “If we were trading purely on the basis of money, we would lean toward betting on the Mavericks, because it's all their money. But we're trying to reach an equilibrium, which means half the bet goes one way and half goes the other. We've settled on 6.5 to 1. That's the strategy we're going with.”
Egeland said the Celtics have the advantage for a reason.
“The Celtics played 82 games this season and they were the best team all year,” he said. “I know they didn't play the toughest fight to get to the Finals, but like I said, they played 82 games to prove themselves and they just proved that they were that good.”
The Porzingis Factor
Egeland said one of the reasons the gap has widened for the season opener is the expected return of Boston's Kristaps Porzingis, who hasn't played since straining his left calf in Game 4 of the season opener against the Miami Heat.
Porzingis' return would not only give the Celtics size, but the 7-foot-6 is also an effective 3-point shooter and a tough matchup for the Mavs, who averaged 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds during the regular season.
Egeland said if the Celtics have to bench Porzingis again, their advantage would likely drop to 4.5 or 5 points.
“The team's done pretty well without him,” DraftKings head of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said, “so having him there makes them even better. Can he get back on the gridiron soon? I think so. This series could go to seven games, so any guy that can step in and contribute would be a welcome addition for either team.”
RUST vs REST
After the Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers and the Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, both teams had an extended break to prepare for this series.
“I think the Mavs had it a little tougher than the Celtics, so (the suspension) may have had a bigger impact on the Celtics because they weren't under as much pressure,” Avello said. “The Mavs 4-1 (series win) doesn't really reflect the flow of the series, but you have to take the Celtics into account. The Celtics could have lost (to Indiana) early on, which would have certainly changed the complexion of the series.”
Egeland said the extra preparation time should be an advantage for Porzingis in particular, but also noted Doncic is playing through knee and ankle injuries.
MVP!
BetMGM has Finals MVP Jayson Tatum as the -120 favorite to win, with Doncic close behind at +200. DraftKings has Doncic at -205 and Tatum at +280, a near complete reversal from last weekend.
“He's getting paid more money,” Avello said of Doncic before the odds changed.
How long will it last?
BetMGM odds have the series projected to finish between five and seven games, with odds ranging from +200 to +225, and a sweep at +450.
DraftKings is even more bullish on longer series, listing the odds of them lasting six or seven games at -150, compared to +125 for shorter series.
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