If there's one lesson we can all hopefully learn from the NBA playoffs, it's this: Can we slow down and wait a moment before immediately labeling a player who has had playoff success as “the next big thing?”
The Denver Nuggets were considered a sure bet to win the championship after beating the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round.
In the second round, Anthony Edwards seemed like the favorite to win as the Minnesota Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets.
As the Dallas Mavericks swept Minnesota in the conference finals, Luka Doncic seemed like an unsolvable mystery.
And in the NBA Finals, the previously dominant Boston Celtics turned out to be the best team from start to finish. Despite everyone thinking they were mistrusted due to past playoff failures, an unproven coach and the absence of an MVP-caliber core, Boston won 16 of 19 playoff games despite being without one of their best players for 11 games.
Let 2023-24 be a humbling lesson in preparation for whatever next season holds. The Celtics tried all year to sell themselves as a great team, but for some reason, everyone ignored the signals. It probably didn't help that they didn't have a full Eastern Conference opponent in the playoffs. Even beating a runaway opponent in the playoffs didn't give them much of a chance to make a statement.
Still, the Celtics went 80-21 in 101 games, had historic point margins and were never seriously challenged in the playoffs. They are the newly defending champions, their sixth in six years, but they will almost certainly enter the 2024-25 season as the favorites to win again.
There's good reason for this: Boston is well-positioned to withstand the worst of the latest collective bargaining agreement blow for at least another season. The 2023 agreement revisions will make it harder to retain a championship-caliber roster like this one, but Boston is positioning itself for a multiyear run through smart contracts and timely trades, even with the two highest-paid players in the league at the core of the team.
Looking just at the 2024-25 season, the Celtics are in great form. Unlike other recent championship teams who quickly lost key players — Bruce Brown to Denver, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. to Golden State, P.J. Tucker to Milwaukee, Danny Green and Rajon Rondo to the Lakers and, of course, Kawhi Leonard to Toronto — the Celtics are positioned to bounce back.
Boston's entire rotation is under contract for next season, with its only free agents being backup centers Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman Sr., Neemias Queta and little-used guard Svi Mykhailiuk. Backup forward Oshae Brissett has a player option on his minimum contract. Boston also has a chance to acquire a cheap player with the 30th pick in the NBA Draft.
I've heard the Celtics are interested in bringing back a center if it makes financial sense. Either way, Boston could easily fill out the second half of the roster with other minimum contracts in the offseason. The Celtics end up above the second apron and don't have any other tools to work with, but they don't need them because all their key players are under contract. (Exception: If 38-year-old Al Horford retires after his first championship, the Celtics would need another big man, but taking his $9.5 million salary would put Boston below the second apron.)
Things get even more difficult if Boston has more dynastic ambitions. The Celtics won't obsess over payroll while they're trying to win back-to-back championships in 2024-25, but two elements of the CBA — the repeat player tax and the second apron — will weigh on them more and more after that.
Boston would have two future draft picks frozen if they drop above the second apron in both 2024-25 and 2025-26, and if they don't drop below the second apron over the following three years, those picks would be moved to the end of the first round in 2032 and 2033, respectively.
Less discussed, but perhaps just as important, is that Boston will be subject to stiff repeater penalties in 2025-26. Starting that year, any team that goes $22.5 million over the luxury tax line would pay an estimated $100 million in taxes and repeater penalties. That's roughly double what Boston would pay in 2024-25 under the same salary structure as a non-repeater. Now, it all happens in one fell swoop. Wow.
Additionally, the repeat player penalty comes into play right when the Celtics are about to begin working on big contract extensions for key stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Brown is due to sign a five-year contract worth an estimated $287 million starting next season, while Tatum is eligible this summer to sign a five-year contract worth an estimated $315 million starting in 2025-26. The exact numbers won't be known until the 2024-25 cap number is finalized, but based on current league guidance, Tatum and Brown alone will make nearly $108 million combined in 2025-26.
Fortunately for Boston, free agency has some time to play a major role in the team's roster. The Celtics are well prepared for the coming era by locking in most of their best players with team extensions. Six Celtics players have signed extensions since joining Boston, with Brown, July Holiday and Payton Pritchard all under contract through 2028.
This trend is expected to continue. In addition to Tatum, we have heard that Sam Hauser and Derrick White are likely to be added. Hauser has one year left on his minimum contract with a team option and is eligible for an extension this summer. He will cost even more from now on, but Boston sees him as a keeper. One possible cap cheat would be to decline Hauser's team option for 2024-25 and re-sign him for more years at a lower amount than the extension that kicked in for 2025-26. Doing so would increase the Celtics' tax penalty for 2024-25, but would mitigate the impact of the repeat player penalty and allow them to manage the second apron for the remaining years.
Meanwhile, White is eligible for a four-year, $127 million extension this summer, including incentives. League sources say the Celtics are very interested in signing him and would likely have to fork over that amount to make the deal happen. (White's extension has been reported at a different figure in some cases because the incentives included in the deal seemed unlikely before this season, but judging by his performance in 2023-24, it looks like all of it is in the cards.)
When you look at the bookkeeping and salary cap implications, the overall strategy becomes clearer. They'll be competing vigorously for back-to-back championships in 2024-25 and likely have some tough decisions to make a year from now. The key to Boston's continued dominance, especially if all those extensions come to fruition, will be how they build their frontcourt on a budget.
These are the Celtics' first significant contract extensions, with Horford and Kristaps Porzingis already signing two-year extensions shortly after arriving. Horford is set to make $9.5 million in what will likely be his final season. Porzingis' contract ends in 2026, at which point he'll make $30.7 million.
The Celtics are coming off a dominant season in a collapsed Eastern Conference and are in as good a position as they could be to defend their title. However, while I will admit that Boston is the clear favorite to win, there is a caveat to be aware of heading into next season. As I said at the beginning, things are not as inevitable as they seem. Critics of the Celtics will have a few points to point out.
- Their system relies heavily on two unusual centers, one of whom is very old and the other very injury prone.
- Tatum has been great, but the Celtics are unlikely to have their best player on the court in a key series.
- Things might not be so rosy next time around in the Eastern Conference: We've never seen the Milwaukee Bucks compete with a full roster, the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers are looking at major offseason restructuring, the New York Knicks are putting together the same type of ensemble cast that made the Celtics so dominant, and the Miami Heat aren't going to take it all lying down… are they?
So I’ll end by saying something a bit contradictory. Sure, the Celtics have proven themselves to be clear championship contenders in 2024-25, and the assessment of their historic 2023-24 season was long overdue and too understated. As I said earlier this year, their switchable five-out lineup is the future, and their front office is always one step ahead.
That's great in principle, but it's not inevitable. In a 30-team league, it takes a lot of luck to even survive one playoff round. Boston is more likely than any other team to do it again, but recent history suggests that betting on the field might still be the smart strategy.
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