The Phoenix Suns are in trouble. They currently sit in the No. 7 seed with just over a dozen games remaining, meaning they may not make the playoffs at all if the season ends today.
What's worse is that the Suns' last 10 games are some of the toughest the team has faced this season in terms of quality of opponent and home/away split.
Therefore, it is most important that Phoenix win the games it is expected to win up until then, leading into tonight's matchup with the San Antonio Spurs.
However, this is not an automatic win, even if the listed NBA odds suggest otherwise. After all, the Spurs have already defeated this Suns team twice this season.
Since then, the Suns have become a healthier, more cohesive team, and Victor Wembaneyama has also improved in that time. A highly anticipated matchup is set for Saturday, March 23rd.
In my NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Spurs, I think Grayson Allen is essential if Phoenix wants to avoid a third straight loss to San Antonio.
Suns vs Spurs odds
Suns vs Spurs predictions
The Phoenix Suns weren't supposed to be in this position. Fighting to escape the play-ins late in the season is nothing short of a disaster when you're mortgaging the future of an entire team and the young talent that propelled him to the NBA Finals in 2021.
Despite their talent, it's not surprising at all, and all the problems people predicted about this team, namely poor defense, limited availability of the starting trio, and weak depth, made them Because he lost his life. Outside of the big three, only a handful of Suns players have stood out through their play.
The best of that group so far is Grayson Allen. Allen is having a career year as a heavy-handed sharpshooter for Phoenix, where he leads the entire NBA with a whopping 48.2 percent 3-point percentage.
Allen's shot is crucial as a release valve for a Suns team full of stars who are capable shooters but want to do damage from inside the arc rather than from beyond. As a result, Allen becomes a chess piece that Frank Vogel uses wisely on every play, allowing him to score points or use his gravity to create critical space.
Allen is not a true mobile shooter, but he has become accustomed to shooting off screens and using side dribbles to avoid hard closeouts before getting into his shooting motion. He ranks among the top 30 players in the association in distance traveled per game, moving and re-moving around the perimeter waiting for one of the approximately 12 kickout passes he receives each game.
Through 11 games in March, Allen is averaging 4.3 threes per game and shooting 49.5%. He also has scored four or more points in six of his last nine games.
The San Antonio Spurs are a team with improved defense, but not on the perimeter. Their growth was all thanks to genius rookie Victor Wembaneyama.
The way to beat teams with impressive rim protectors like Victor is to stretch them out and take game-changing defenders out of the action entirely. Allen would be key to such a strategy. That's why I believe Grayson Allen's odds make for such an attractive bet on Saturday.
my best bet: Grayson Allen, 3.5+ threes (+120 DraftKings)
Suns vs Spurs same game parlay
Grayson Allen 3.5 3+
Tre Jones 10+ points
Jusuf Nurkic 10.5 rebounds or less
Another role player worth watching in Saturday's matchup is Tre Jones. Jones started the season as a little-used bench player, logging less than 23 minutes per game in December.
However, his ability as Victor's pick-and-roll partner became integral to Victor's development, and his role increased month by month until he finally secured the starting job.
Like his younger brother Theus, Tre also has one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the association. For a young team with a lot of mistakes on offense, a steady presence like Jones helps the entire offensive ecosystem.
However, he has been doing well lately, combining not only his passes but also his own scoring chances. Jones is averaging 16.2 points per game over his last five games and has increased his volume, making nearly 58 percent of his threes.
In the end, I think it's a good bet that Jusuf Nurkic's tears on the glass end on Saturday. Wenbanyama's rebounding prop odds have finally caught up to his production, but I think there's still plenty of value in shorting his main opponent in tonight's game.
Nurkic has averaged an impressive 14.3 boards through March, but Wemby presents a unique challenge. Despite having to play more offensively due to Bradley Beal's absence, he averaged just 7.5 rebounds in two games with Nurkic earlier this season. Wenby's ability to adjust the floor spacing could cause the Suns to go small again, which would make it unlikely that Nurkic could match his typical performance.
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Suns vs. Spurs spread and over/under analysis
The Suns opened Saturday as the nine-point favorites, but their early action against the visitors bumped them up to -10 points at some sportsbooks.
The back-to-back losses to the Spurs earlier this season marked one of the low points of the Suns' season and the first time real skepticism about this team's roster began to emerge. Although they've played better since then, they haven't played well enough to erase that skepticism.
The Suns are just 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Spurs are 6-4. Phoenix is also just 14-18-1 ATS on the road this season, and 7-10-1 including the rest advantage.
The Spurs are on back-to-back games after last night's blowout loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, but they don't have great perimeter defensive options to deal with Devin Booker or Beal. Neither team is consistent enough for me to like the action on either side.
Suns vs. Spurs total is 229, down slightly to 228.5, but most sportsbooks are currently up to 230.5.
This probably seems a little too high since Victor is already one of the best defensive players in the league.
According to data analysis guru and former Spurs staffer Kirk Goldsberry, San Antonio has the best defense in the NBA when Wenby is on the court (defensive rating of 106) and ranks 25th in defense when he's off (106). He is playing at a level with a defensive rating of 118).
Victor can't be on the court all the time, but the fact that he can have that level of impact while the Suns are playing their best offensive unit means their bench group is barely packed. That would give the Suns a chance to slow down significantly. Same punch.
Other than Allen, the Suns haven't had much of a record on the road either, with the under this season at 19 wins and 14 losses.
Suns vs. Spurs betting trends you need to know
The under is 19-14 in road games against the Suns this season. Suns vs Spurs NBA Betting Check out more of his trends.
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Suns vs. Spurs match information
| position: | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas |
| date: | Saturday, March 23, 2024 |
| Tips: | 8pm ET |
| tv set: | Bally Sports SW-SA, Arizona Family Sports |
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