The calendar has turned to July and football season is fast approaching. The 2024 season is one to look forward to for Virginia Tech fans, as they have most of their production from last season back and are one of the most experienced teams in the country. With another leap from quarterback Kyron Draughns and improvements in other areas, their first ACC Championship appearance since 2016 could be in the cards.
The schedule is also very favorable, which is one of the reasons why analysts covering the sport have Virginia Tech as a dark horse in the ACC. However, according to Bill Connelly's SP+, the Hokies only have the seventh-best chance of winning the conference. In his ACC preview released today, Connelly lists the odds of ACC teams winning the conference and winning six or more games, and gives Virginia Tech a 5.8% chance of winning the ACC and a whopping 97.3% chance of winning six or more games. Virginia Tech ranks behind Florida State, Clemson, Miami, SMU, Louisville and NC State.
Here's what Connelly had to say about the Hokies ahead of the 2024 season:
2024 Projection: 32nd in SP+, 8.4 wins average (5.1 in ACC)
“NC State may have won the official Late-Year Darling award, but Brent Pry's Hokies are close behind, surging from 76th in the SP+ rankings after going from 2-4 to winning five of seven games to finish at 46th. And unlike the Pack, they return their starting quarterback (Kyron Draughns) and pretty much everyone else, too. With the fourth-best grade in the nation and the No. 1 offense in return, they have a chance to end a losing streak after six years outside the SP+ top 30.”
Tech's 2-4 start was plagued by a directionless offense that averaged just 5.0 yards per play. But when Dorons and running back Beischul Teuthen (both transfers) got going, the Hokies were transformed. They averaged 34.7 points and 6.8 yards per play over their final seven games, and Dorons will enter 2024 with Teuthen, the entire offensive line and the receivers they were meant to have all along. Last year's top receivers, Daquan Felton and Jaylin Lane, are back, as are injured 2023 starters Ali Jennings III (a former ODU star) and tight end Nick Gallo.
The Hokies boasted one of the nation's best pass defenses last season, ranking fourth in sacks per dropback, 15th in pass completion percentage allowed and 23rd in QBR allowed. Ace pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland (15 TFL, 9.5 sacks) returns, and Pry has added one of the nation's best pass-rush defensive tackles, 290-pound Duke transfer Aeneas Peebles (5 sacks) and speedy blitzer Sam Brumfield (22.9% pressure rate) from Middle Tennessee. With the addition of experienced cornerbacks Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane and dynamic nickel Keonta Jenkins (12 TFL), there's no reason to think the pass defense will be less effective. If there's a problem, it's the run defense, and Tech has hurt them a lot there. Three of last year's top four tackles are gone, and while the transfer of Peebles and two other tackles could improve things, there are no guarantees.
My favorite player: QB Kyron Draughns. Draughns became the starter earlier in the season, ousting incumbent Grant Wells, but through his first four games in 2023 he posted a total QBR of just 44.0, completed 55% of his passes, was sacked 23% and had just one touchdown pass.
For the remainder of the season, he completed 60% of his passes, sacked 6%, had 16 touchdowns, only two interceptions, 82.7 non-sack rushing yards per game, and a total QBR of 76.9. Coordinator Tyler Bowen understood him, and he understood ACC defenses. Tuten had a similar growth spurt (3.9 yards per carry in seven games, 6.2 from there), and Tech had one of the best backfields in the Eastern Time Zone by season's end.
So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into creating this ranking? Connelly sums it up in his own words:
“I base my SP+ forecasts on three main factors, weighted according to forecast accuracy.
1. Return Production. Return production numbers are based on rosters that have been updated as much as possible to account for transfers and turnovers. The combination of last year's SP+ rating and an adjustment based on return production makes up roughly half of the projection formula.
2. Recent Acquisitions. This information informs me about the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars). This is determined by descending player acquisition rankings from the past few years (i.e. the most recent classes are weighted most heavily). Starting this season, I also incorporate transfers (both quality and quantity) in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy player acquisition shift, I have a bit more data on how to handle it. This information makes up about a third of the prediction formula.
3. Recent History. A little bit of information from past seasons (2-4 years ago) can provide a good gauge of the overall health of a program. It stands to reason that a team that did well one year will be less likely to repeat that effort than a team that did well for many years (and vice versa). It's a small piece of the puzzle (only 15% or so), but predictions will be better with it than without it.
A note about SP+: It is a measure of college football efficiency that is adjusted for tempo and opponent. It is a measure that predicts the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a resume ranking. Likewise, these projections are not intended to infer what the AP Top 25 will be at the end of the year.”
I think Virginia Tech probably has a better chance of winning, but I don't think the odds are too great. This is shaping up to be a good season for Brent Pry and Virginia Tech, but they have to make the most of it.
