Lori Ewing
BLANKENHAIN, Germany (Reuters) – Dominant wins in the first round of major soccer tournaments, such as those by Spain and the Netherlands in the last 16 at Euro 2024, are not a good indicator of chances of success at the next stage.
Since 1986, 15 of the 19 teams that have won the first knockout match of a Euros or World Cup by three or more goals have been eliminated in the next round.
The results were analysed by Alex Krumer, a sports economist and professor at Molde University in Norway.
Spain and the Netherlands are the only teams to have won by more than three goals in the Euro 2024 round of 16, with Spain beating Georgia 4-1 and the Netherlands beating Romania 3-0.
Both teams will face tough opponents in the quarter-finals, with Spain facing Germany on Friday and the Netherlands hosting Turkey on Saturday.
Teams that have defied the odds include Germany (twice), Brazil and Denmark. Germany beat England 4-1 at the 2010 World Cup before being eliminated in the semi-finals, and beat Slovakia 3-0 at Euro 2016 before being eliminated in the quarter-finals.
Brazil beat Chile 4-1 at the 1998 World Cup but lost in the final, while Denmark shut out Wales 4-0 at Euro 2020 but lost in the semi-finals.
“This result means that teams should not rely too much on past matches, but rather adapt their preparations to new opponents,” Krumer said.
He suggested that a potential reason for the unusually high percentage of favored teams losing in the next round could be that those teams are overconfident.
It's also possible that opponents will be well prepared for the style of play that has led to such dominating victories.
(Reporting by Lori Ewing and Ken Ferris Editing)
