A few weeks ago, I locked myself in my film cave and meticulously analyzed and evaluated every snap of Coach’s film. Six Quarterbacks They'll replace departing first-round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. Some took a long time (new Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel) while others took much less time (Michigan's Alex Orji), though the sample size is less interesting. Detailed notes on those were published this week by 247Sports.
Our expectations for these quarterbacks vary widely, so below we've summarized the scouting reports into a short article and ranked each of the six quarterbacks in order of their likelihood to successfully replace their first-round predecessors, taking into account not only the quarterback's own athleticism but also the supporting cast around him.
Set yourself up for great success
1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
Replaced by: Bo Nix (12th overall, Denver Broncos)
Dillon Gabriel, in what feels like his 10th collegiate year, brings plenty of experience and the ability to execute a tempo-driven offense to a talented Oregon team expected to make a deep playoff run (Gabriel has 49 starts, nearly 15,000 passing yards and 125 touchdown passes).
Gabriel had his best season last year in Norman, scoring 12 touchdowns on the ground and making key plays that moved the chains. Gabriel excels in a tempo and RPO based offense and gets the ball on time with an active arm that can slice through defenses. He reads defenses well, finds green turf for easy pass completions, and takes advantage of man-to-man matchups for explosive plays. His ability to extend plays and navigate the pocket, whether with his arm or legs, is a standout trait. Though he misses crosses and deep passes at times, Gabriel is poised to be one of the top quarterbacks in the nation.
His adjustment to Will Stein's offense and how it compares to the performance of 2023 Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix will be interesting to watch. Gabriel is looking to have a great season, and his performance early against Ohio State could impact his 2024 Heisman Trophy conversation.
2. Garrett Nussmeyer, Louisiana State University
Replaced by: Jayden Daniels (Overall 2nd place, Washington Commanders)
Garrett Nussmeyer is finally taking the reins at LSU after serving as the backup to All-American and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Known for his excellent arm and football IQ, he is poised for a breakout season behind a top-tier offensive line and a talented cadre of receivers. He played limited minutes last season but shone in the start against Wisconsin in the Reliaquest Bowl, throwing for 410 yards and six touchdowns.
Nussmeyer plays with a gunslinger mentality and throws passes with confidence in tight spaces. He has a quick release and is an accurate passer when his feet are planted, but his accuracy can drop when under pressure. LSU has a favorable schedule early on, giving Nussmeyer plenty of time to adjust. He could be a first-round draft pick in 2025.
Wildcard
3. Miller Moss, University of Southern California
Replaced by: Caleb Williams (1st overall pick, Chicago Bears)
Miller-Moss gained valuable experience last year as the backup to No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, then had a standout performance in the Holiday Bowl, throwing for 377 yards and six touchdowns in his lone start. His calm and collected demeanor during the game boosted his confidence and earned him the trust of his teammates and coaching staff.
USC entered the transfer portal to acquire backup Jayden Maiava, but Moss' performance in the bowl game convinced coach Lincoln Riley that he wouldn't need to acquire a starter. If Moss' offensive line holds up, we could see a pretty good season in Los Angeles. The wide receiver corps is pretty deep, and USC shouldn't have to compete in as many shootouts.
Moss has good arm strength and accuracy, but often locks onto his primary target without making reads, which was evident in his limited play against Louisville and led to turnovers. This season, Moss will need to improve on his ability to use his eyes to move defenders around and his ability to get forward to avoid defenders coming to take the ball. His success will depend on his ability to make those adjustments and take advantage of easy passes to the back.
4. Max Johnson, North Carolina
Replaced by: Drake May (Overall 3rd place, New England Patriots)
Experienced left-hander Max Johnson will take over for Drake Maye at the University of North Carolina. In 20 games at LSU and Texas A&M, Johnson has thrown for over 5,800 yards, 47 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Johnson throws accurate, timely passes to all levels of the field and excels on short to medium range passes. His high football IQ and pedigree are evident in his ability to read defenses. He is incredibly agile at 6'5″ and can play with his feet.
Johnson throws well on the move and makes good decisions under pressure, throwing strikes up the middle and taking hits when necessary, but his average release time and inconsistency in the pocket can hinder his performance. He often drifts too deep or too far to the side, which complicates offensive line defenses.
Overall, I'd be surprised if Moss was above average. North Carolina will likely struggle in 2024, with coach Mack Brown expected to retire after the season.
I can see them being benched.
5. Will Rogers, Washington
Replaced by: Michael Penis Jr. (8th place overall, Atlanta Falcons)
Will Rogers struggled last year as Mississippi State moved to a pro-style system, and now in Washington he faces the challenge of learning Jedd Fisch's pro-style offense and adjusting to the NFL lingo while replacing Michael Pennis Jr. and much of the 2023 Washington offensive line.
Sure, Rodgers brought an impressive resume to the Pacific Northwest, starting 40 games and holding the SEC record for career passing attempts. His strengths lie in his ability to make quick work of defenses, advance his pass and minimize turnovers, as evidenced by his low interception rate even in his down years. But he has average arm strength and excels at short-to-medium range passing, and his passing accuracy dropped off significantly last season, dropping his completion percentage from 70% the year before to 60%. How does this bode for a road game in the Midwest and a home game in the fog at Seattle?
If Fisch can regain his confidence, Rodgers could improve, but Washington's lack of potential talent and his own limitations could result in a disappointing season and leave Rodgers vulnerable to a younger, more athletic quarterback in freshman Demond Williams if Fisch decides to play in 2025.
6. Alex Orji, Michigan
Replaced by: J.J. McCarthy (10th overall, Minnesota Vikings)
Alex Orji is the most unpredictable quarterback prospect of the six, and his impressive size and athleticism hint at how Sherone Moore will direct Michigan's offense in 2024. Though his playing time has been limited (17 snaps last season and just eight snaps in 2022 with one pass attempt), Orji has flashed the athleticism to change the pace of Michigan's ground-and-pound attack. A dynamic athlete, he excels with the ball in his hands, but defenses will anticipate this and crowd into the box to thwart the run.
Michigan's coaching staff is confident in Orji's running skills, but his passing ability has yet to be tested. Former coach Jim Harbaugh praised Orji's prowess, noting that he had over 2,000 passing yards in high school, completed 51% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions. With Orji's passing ability still unknown outside the team, Michigan is expected to use heavy formations to emphasize the run.
He may continue in his situational role from last year, or he may be surpassed by a more traditional passer.
