Check out the official UFC 304 odds with my predictions for all 14 fights for Saturday’s pay-per-view, including the Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad main event and title rematch.
Below, I take a look at the latest UFC 304 odds and break down and predict each bout on the card, which takes place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England.
Here’s how to watch UFC 304: The early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before the regular prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The five-fight main card then starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (PPV cost: $79.99).
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 304 odds, this overseas event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I’ll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 304 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 304 with our DraftKings promo code.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
UFC 304 Projected Odds
Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s x bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
UFC 304 Prop Projections
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.
UFC 304 Odds
Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
| Women’s Strawweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon Odds | -185 |
| Alice Ardelean Odds | +154 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-210 / +160) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Shauna Bannon (58.1%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.
Aredelean is making her UFC debut on short notice in place of Ravena Oliveira against a taller and longer fighter (Bannon is 2″ taller with a 3″ reach advantage).
If the UFC had an atomweight division (105-pound division), Bannon could likely compete in it. However, while shorter, Ardelean may be the stronger and more muscular athlete.
As a result, she struggled to make weight (but did so successfully) on Friday – which is more than understandable considering the extremely short notice booking – and Ardelean may fade in the second or third round after winning early minutes.
I probably would have taken plus money on Bannon to win in Round 3 or by Decision (-115 at DraftKings), but the price isn’t particularly enticing; I’d rather poke Bannon to win in Round 3 (+1500) or wait for a live bet.
I’d bet Ardelean small at +160 or better (projected +149) pre-fight and roll that into a live wager on Bannon.
I’ll wait until closer to the start time to lock in an official price and bet size on the underdog. For bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App.
Bets
- Alice Ardelean (+160, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- Shauna Bannon Live after Round 1
Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski
| Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mick Parkin Odds | -535 |
| Lukasz Brzeski Odds | +400 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Mick Parkin (77.4%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.
Parkin, who trains with UFC 304 co-headliner Tom Aspinall, has a nearly 20-pound weight advantage and all of the grappling upside in this matchup. He’s also the more durable fighter and has better cardio.
Brzeski has decent striking volume for a heavyweight, but he lacks knockout power, has poor takedown defense, and gets tired when forced to grapple.
I think this fight will reach a decision (projected -165, listed -158) unless Parkin finds a finish via submission (projected +762, listed +700) or positional TKO on the mat.
Still, I’m torn between those outcomes and would pass on the Over. Given the cardio advantage, I would rather live bet Parkin after Round 1 and consider poking his odds to win in Round 3 (+1000).
Alternatively, I’m betting on Parkin to win in Round 3 or by decision (-130 at DraftKings); his decision price alone is juiced to -135 (vs. +100 to +115 domestic) at one of the sharpest offshore books.
Bets
- Mick Parkin, wins in Round 3 or on Decision (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Mick Parkin Live after Round 1
Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Patterson Odds | -485 |
| Kiefer Crosbie Odds | +370 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (+130 / -166) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Sam Patterson (78.5%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.
Patterson has a significant size advantage over Crosbie (4″ taller, 8″ reach advantage) and is the much better grappler in this matchup. Still, the Englishman has poor striking defense (49%) and a wonky chin, and almost any opponent has a puncher’s chance against him.
Surprisingly, Patterson doesn’t seem to have any cardio concerns – unexpected for a 6-for-3 welterweight. Durability is the main issue, and Patterson alleviates that by proactively grappling competent strikers. Still, while Crosbie might be drawing dead to a finish, it’s challenging to lay hefty juice on a potentially chinny fighter like Patterson.
Patterson is odds-on to win by submission (listed -110) and the same price at some books to win in Round 1. The prices on his Round 1 submission prop (+190) or odds to win in Round 2 (+380) aren’t very exciting either; I’ll likely use the former as a round-robin leg.
Bets
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
| Flyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev Odds | -185 |
| Manel Kape Odds | +154 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-175 / +135) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Muhammad Mokaev (58.4%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape preview from my colleague Billy Ward.
Mokaev has remained a substantial favorite while facing increasingly more difficult tests as he’s ascended to the UFC flyweight rankings. In his past three fights, Mokaev nearly got submitted by Jafel Filho, lost two rounds to Tim Elliott, and won an extremely contentious decision over Alex Perez. Mokaev closed at -800, -435 and -350 at the best available prices in those respective bouts.
Mokaev opened as an underdog (+120) against Kape, but the line flipped and steamed in his direction.
Kape is easily the most dangerous striker he’s faced and one of the more explosive athletes in the 125-pound division. If Mokaev gets stuck on the feet for extended stretches with “Starboy,” he’ll likely lose his undefeated record and potentially get finished.
Still, Kape has shown a grappling deficiency in the UFC and got taken down and controlled by Matheus Nicolau and David Dvorak for round-losing stretches of time.
While Kape is the most potent and dynamic striker Mokaev has faced, Mokaev (who averages 17.3 takedowns per five minutes at distance) is the most proactive wrestler and scrambler Kape has faced.
I expect Mokaev to land takedowns and control Kape for extended stretches. Still, he doesn’t reliably land ground and pound, and if Mokaev doesn’t finish Kape with a submission, it could allow Starboy to return to his feet and swing the round in his favor with one impactful moment.
Kape tends to be overly patient – waiting for the right opportunity to fire off a wicked combination – often to his detriment on the scorecards. Similarly, Mokaev rarely lands enough damage to win clear minutes against his opponents.
For instance, Mokaev out-landed Elliott 100-67 on total strikes over the first two rounds of their fight, with 4:56 of control time in Round 2, yet all three judges gave Elliott Round 1 (30-14 on significant strikes) and two of three judges gave him Round 2 (6-3 on significant strikes with two submission attempts). Yet, the commentary and live betting suggested Mokaev was ahead.
I projected Kape around +140 and would wait for this line to hit +150 (40% implied) or higher before jumping in – a nearly 20% adjustment relative to his opening line (-142, or 58.7% implied).
I also show value on Kape’s KO/TKO prop (projected +434, listed +470) as a round-robin piece. Still, with his decision prop sitting closer to +200 offshore, compared to +300 to +335 domestically, Kape by decision might be the sharp prop for this fight.
Bets
- Manel Kape (+154, 0.25u) at DraftKings; may increase wager before fight time
Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Oban Elliott Odds | +136 |
| Preston Parsons Odds | -162 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Preston Parsons (62.6%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons preview from my colleague Billy Ward.
Elliott is a trendy underdog selection this week and is getting picked to win the fight 64% of the time compared in my model against average implied odds of around 45%.
Both fighters are cardio-oriented grapplers, but Parsons has faced a higher level of competition, and I generally trust American wrestlers in any matchups against similarly skilled Euros.
Parsons is the more powerful striker and the better wrestler, and he should be able to dictate where the fight occurs. Elliott might be the better offensive jiu-jitsu player, but it matters little if he can’t get the fight to the mat and get on top of his opponent.
Elliott was clipped and nearly finished in his UFC debut by Val Woodburn, who was initially signed to the promotion as a human sacrifice for Bo Nickal. Elliott rallied after the muscular Woodburn gassed, but an exhausted Woodburn still out-grappled Elliott for stretches of the third round and avoided getting finished.
I expect Parsons – the more durable fighter – to land the more damaging strikes and would bet his moneyline to -155 (projected -167). Eliott represents a potential step down in competition relative to his previous opponents.
I also like the fight to reach a decision 57% of the time (-132 implied) and would bet that prop to -120.
Bets
- Fight Goes to Decision, (-108, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Preston Parsons, (-145, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas Odds | -155 |
| Marcin Prachnio Odds | +130 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Modestas Bukauskas (56.9%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.
Modestas Bukauskas is six years younger and has a four-inch reach advantage in this fight. He might also have a cardio advantage, and I’d expect him to find more success in the second half of the fight than he does from the opening bell.
Prachnio offers solid volume and is typically highly efficient (+2.7 significant strike differential per minute). His chin also seems past due to get checked. He avoided a KO loss in his past six fights after getting knocked out in each of his first three UFC bouts.
Still, Prachnio hasn’t necessarily been hurt or wobbled in his recent bouts, and Bukauskas will be happy to counter-strike and use his length to land on Prachnio as he attempts to close the distance.
In other words, I don’t expect a lot of reckless pocket-boxing in the center of the cage, but I do expect Prachnio to have to track down a mobile opponent as he plays matador around the UFC octagon.
I show slight value on the goes to decision prop (projected -150, listed -140) and Prachnio winning by decision (projected +286, listed +320) and would otherwise pass on betting – or watching – this fight.
I’ll wait for -135 on the former and see if the line moneyline ticks up against Prachnio, boosting his decision odds.
Bets
Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Caolan Loughran Odds | -225 |
| Jake Hadley Odds | +185 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-260 / +195) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Caolan Loughran (68.9%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Caolan Loughran vs. Jake Hadley preview matchup from my colleague Dan Tom.
Hadley is taking the fight on short notice and moving up from flyweight, but he still missed the bantamweight limit on Friday (the lone weight miss on the card), and he could be on the promotional chopping block with a third consecutive loss. Hadley notably missed weight before his Contender Series win and was a controversial signing at the time.
Despite moving up a division, Hadley still has a height and reach advantage against Loughran. Still, I didn’t expect Hadley to benefit from moving up in weight as much as other fighters might; he doesn’t have a particularly muscular physique or rely on strength as the crux of his game.
Loughran is the more naturally powerful athlete and physical fighter. I view him as the superior striker and wrestler and Hadley as the better jiu-jitsu player. Loughran will also push a high-paced fight, and there’s a possibility that Hadley may struggle to handle the increased power at 135 pounds or pace himself for a 15-minute bout after a short-notice weight miss.
At DraftKings, Loughran in Round 3 or by decision is -130, but a same-game parlay with Loughran and the Over 1.5 Rounds is only -140. Pay 10 cents for the extra 2.5 minutes, and live bet Loughran after a potentially competitive opening round.
Bets
- SGP (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Caolan Loughran & Over 1.5 Rounds
- Caolan Loughran Live after Round 1
Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
| Women’s Strawweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Molly McCann Odds | -345 |
| Bruna Brasil Odds | +275 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Molly McCann (76.5%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.
McCann’s past five fights have ended inside the distance, including her past four in the opening round. Saturday will mark her second career fight at strawweight, so we don’t know what she looks like in an extended fight in this weight class – where bouts, on average, reach a decision nearly 65% of the time.
I projected this fight to hit a decision only near 60% of the time (projected -148) and still show value on the Over 2.5 Rounds or decision prop, up to -135. Depending upon the book, I also show slight value on either fighter to win a decision.
McCann is the superior boxer and Brasil isn’t exceptionally durable, but Molly should also have the wrestling advantage in this matchup. She may prefer to grapple rather than navigate a height and reach discrepancy (2″ shorter, 3″ reach disadvantage) – and I could see Brasil neutralizing and accepting the bottom position for long stretches on the mat.
Bets
- Fight Goes to Decision (-124, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood Odds | -395 |
| Daniel Pineda Odds | +310 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-188 / +145) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Nathaniel Wood (79.7%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda preview from my colleague Billy Ward.
Wood seemed a bit small after moving up from 135 pounds (bantamweight) to 145 (featherweight) for his last fight, and he should be at a power disadvantage against Pineda, a dangerous offensive striker and submission grappler. Wood also has a wonky chin and seems to get hurt or wobble at some point in his fights.
Still, Wood is the better technician, has a significant speed advantage, and owns a massive cardio edge in this matchup.
In his second stint in the UFC – in his late 30s – Pineda typically fades by the halfway point of his fights if he doesn’t finish his opponent. In his most recent bout, he sustained a ton of damage late against Alex Caceres (40 of 60 significant strikes in Round 3), and he may look declined athletically after a 13-month layoff.
Early props for Pineda are always viable, including his odds to win in Round 1 (+1200), but I’d prefer to bet Wood to win in Round 2 (+430) or Round 3 (+650) alongside a live wager after five minutes.
Additionally, consider betting an SGP with Wood and the Over 1.5 Rounds (-105 at DraftKings) instead of his odds to win in Round 3 or by decision (+120 at DraftKings).
Bets
- Nathaniel Wood Live after Round 1
- Nathaniel Wood wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at BallyBet
- Nathaniel Wood wins in Round 3 (+650, 0.1u) at BallyBet
- SGP (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Nathaniel Wood & Over 1.5 Rounds
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arnold Allen Odds | -238 |
| Giga Chikadze Odds | +195 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-238 / +180) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Arnold Allen (71.8%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze preview from my colleague John LanFranca.
Allen needs to grapple to cover his price tag in this matchup. Chikadze is the far superior kicker with a four-inch reach advantage in boxing exchanges.
Still, Chikadze is six years older and coming off an 11-month layoff after a groin tear and an uninspired and closer-than-it-looked 30-27 win over Alex Caceres (65-62 on significant strikes). Giga edged rounds with a power advantage while Caceres failed to pursue his clear grappling edge.
Allen is the better athlete and the bigger hitter in this matchup. He will look to pressure Chikadze and stay within boxing range rather than getting kicked at a distance. Allen should threaten to change levels and mix his striking and grappling to keep Chikadze off balance.
Calvin Kattar landed the first takedown of his fight against Giga – and not only did Kattar win the round, but the grappling also tired Giga out for the subsequent rounds of the fight. Chikadze can kickbox all day, but he tires when forced to grapple.
Allen is the younger man with the better gas tank, and I expect him to be the fresher fighter down the stretch if he deploys the correct game plan: pressure Giga and force him to grapple early.
If he doesn’t, this fight likely plays out much more competitively on the feet, where Chikadze lands more volume with leg and body kicks, but Allen punches harder, likely swaying the hometown judges.
My projection aligns with the moneyline price for Allen, but I would buy any further dip at -200 or better. I do show value on his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected +478, listed +600) or inside the distance (projected +262, listed +330) and would consider betting Allen in the finish-only market (-145 at DraftKings).
If you like the underdog, consider betting Chikadze to win by decision (projected +363, listed +400).
Bets
- Arnold Allen wins Inside the Distance (+330, 0.2u) at DraftKings
- Finish Only Moneyline: Arnold Allen (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Christian Leroy Duncan Odds | -135 |
| Gregory Rodrigues Odds | +114 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (-160 / +124) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Christian Leroy Duncan (51.2%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues preview from my colleague Billy Ward.
Billy and I landed on Rodrigues as our consensus favorite underdog bet on the Action Network Podcast:
This fight opened closer to a pick’em (Rodrigues -105) and ticked up toward +120 on Thursday night before moving back down to +110 as of Friday evening.
I will wait to fire a bet – since I expect the line for most English, Irish and Welsh fighters to steam their direction on fight day. With the first prelim starting at 11 p.m. local time and the main card kicking off at 3 a.m. local time, there is ample opportunity for these markets to move.
Rodrigues has a clear grappling advantage in this fight, but he can also stay competitive on the feet. He’s at a reach discrepancy (4″) but should have the power advantage, and he’s always willing to force action and engage his opponent.
Duncan, or “CLD,” prefers a moderate to low tempo outside kickboxing match, where he can use his speed and length to pick away opponents and break them down. Rodrigues won’t permit him that opportunity; the question is how long he waits before initiating the grappling.
“Robocop” is a decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner who too often falls in love with his striking. He loves to brawl, but it’s an issue because he doesn’t have a great chin – and often gets wobbled at least once in his fights. I’d expect him to pursue grappling from the outset here and look to take CLD’s back, where he can choke him out or win the round.
On the feet, he has more than a puncher’s chance. Rodrigues carries considerable power and is more technical than he gets credit for, and Duncan – who fights from a karate-style stance – tends to keep his hands low. He’s far less comfortable defensively when getting pressured than he is at range, and if Rodrigues blitzes him, it could force a coinflip fight-ending sequence on either side.
CLD has the better chin – and cardio – and I expect him to win a decision at a higher clip, justifying his favoritism.
Robocop also represents a step up in class relative to CLD’s previous level of competition. While Duncan is a solid prospect athletically, he’s not fully developed as a fighter. I expect Rodrigues to find opportunities to hurt him on the feet or exploit a grappling deficiency.
I would take +110 or better on Rodrigues (projected +105) and would consider betting him to win by submission (projected +485, listed +550) or inside the distance (projected +156, listed +215).
Additionally, consider betting the fight to end inside the distance (projected -298, listed -245); Rodrigues always forces a high variance war, and it doesn’t hurt that the UFC doubled the performance bonuses for this card.
Bets
- Gregory Rodrigues (+118, 0.25u) at Caesars; may increase wager before fight time
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
| Lightweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bobby Green Odds | -115 |
| Paddy Pimblett Odds | -105 |
| Over/under rounds | 2.5 (-154 / +120) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Bobby Green (57.5%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out the Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.
Green, who recently changed his first name to “King” (we’ll still refer to King Green as Bobby Green this weekend) opened as a -190 favorite (65.5% implied) in this matchup, which has moved down to -115 (53.5% implied) as of writing – and may flip toward Pimblett on fight day.
Paddy is nine years younger and the more powerful athlete. Still, Green has a better gas tank and is the superior mixed martial artist, with vastly more cage experience (48 professional fights).
Paddy’s success in this matchup should be frontloaded. Green is still just two fights removed from a vicious, multiple KO loss to Jalin Turner, which the referee stopped far too late. He was wobbled early in his subsequent fight against Jim Miller at UFC 300.
Still, Green alleviated any concerns about declining speed or athleticism, racking up 319 significant strike attempts (21.2 per minute) across that fight while landing 82 of 121 significant strike attempts (67%) in Round 3 alone. Paddy, who defends strikes at 41% compared to 62% for Green, will have a heart attack if “Bobby” puts that pace on him late.
I’d be disappointed – but not surprised – if Pimblett ices Green early, but it would make sense at their respective career stages. Even though Green has solid takedown defense (74%), Pimblett may be able to bowl him over and get on top when both fighters are fresh.
Still, Green is a more than capable defensive grappler and scrambler, and I’d expect him to eventually work his way back to his feet without absorbing much damage.
Pimblett has shown that he consistently fades in the third round of his bouts – especially after extended grappling exchanges – and he was wearing down in the second half of his two most recent fights against Tony Ferguson and Jared Gordon.
I’d expect Pimblett to take an early lead, but if he doesn’t finish Green, I expect the newly named King to rally consistently in the second half of the fight.
I’ll wait to fire on Green until fight day to see if Paddy takes more money, but I would bet Green up to -125 (projected -135) on the moneyline and consider playing his odds to win in Round 3 (+1600) against a potentially exhausted Pimblett. Additionally, live bet Green anytime after Round 1.
Bets
- Bobby Green (-112, 0.25u) at FanDuel; will increase wager before fight time
- Bobby Green, wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Bobby Green Live after Round 1
Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
| Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall Odds | -395 |
| Curtis Blaydes Odds | +310 |
| Over/under rounds | 1.5 (+130 / -166) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Tom Aspinall (75.1%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes preview from my colleague Dan Tom.
You can also read my breakdown for this matchup from UFC London in 2022. The fight lasted 15 seconds before Aspinall blew out his knee. Since their initial fight, we haven’t learned any new information about either fighter, aside from that Aspinall successfully returned from the injury.
Aspinall recorded two more knockouts inside 90 seconds – earning his fifth and sixth performance bonuses in eight UFC fights. Still, he’s seen a second round only once in the UFC – and he remains 0-2 in his MMA career past the 7.5-minute mark.
After fighting Aspinall, Blaydes was KO’ed quickly by Sergei Pavlovich and secured a come-from-behind win against Jailton Almeida after getting out-grappled for the first time in his UFC tenure. He retains the skill set to win this matchup at a comfortable clip if he can weather the early storm against the interim champion.
However, both the pricing (and my projections based on public predictions) have adjusted substantially relative to the first bout – which closed with Aspinall near 60% implied – compared to 80% implied or higher for Saturday.
When both men are fresh, Aspinall is the better athlete and fighter with a severe speed and power advantage, superior offensive striking technique and defensive awareness, and a better chin.
Blaydes does not react well to clean strikes, getting skittish even in wins against fighters like Jairzinho Rozenstruik. As a result, he remains far too confident in his offensive striking – which is underrated – because it leaves openings for him to get clipped in exchanges.
Blaydes would be better served to immediately clinch or wrestle against most heavyweights, who typically lack defensive grappling skills. However, Aspinall is the superior jiu-jitsu practitioner in this fight and could threaten Blaydes with submissions if the fight goes to the ground early.
Blaydes needs to rely on wrestling and cardio to win this matchup. He set (at the time) a heavyweight record with 14 takedowns (on 25 attempts) across 25 minutes against Alexander Volkov, and Aspinall – who is seemingly an extraordinary athlete – still has questions to answer concerning his sustainability and effectiveness in longer fights.
While I view Bladyes nearer to the pre-fight value side on the moneyline (projected +321, listed +320), I’d wait to bet him until live after Round 1, when you’ll almost certainly find a better price and avoid most of Aspinall’s win condition.
Pre-fight, I’d lean to Aspinall by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+150), but I’d prefer Aspinall and Under the 1.5 Rounds (-134 at BallyBet) in a Same Game Parlay. It’s a large part of his win condition, and if the fight goes past that point, the momentum has likely already swung toward Blaydes.
Bets
- Curtis Blaydes Live after Round 1
- SGP (-134, 0.25u) at BallyBet: Tom Aspinall & Under 1.5 Rounds
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leon Edwards Odds | -265 |
| Belal Muhammad Odds | +215 |
| Over/under rounds | 4.5 (-200 / +154) |
Crowdsourced Projections: Leon Edwards (72.7%)
For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown, check out my Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad preview for UFC 304’s headline bout.
In short, I projected Edwards as a -266 favorite (72.7% implied), and considering his success should be frontloaded – and expect the live odds to tick in his direction after banking early rounds – I’m comfortable laying up to -260 on Edwards pre-fight, either as a straight moneyline bet or a parlay piece.
I prefer Edwards on the finish-only moneyline, where your bet grades only if either fighter wins inside the distance.
I expect this fight to reach a decision 65.5% of the time (-190 implied) but would put Edwards at 29.1% (+243) to finish compared to 5.4% (+1752) for Muhammad. And I’d set the fair odds on a finish-only moneyline at around 85% or -568 for Edwards, compared to listed odds of -265, much more closely aligned with his moneyline price.
Lastly, consider including Edwards to win by KO/TKO (projected +293, listed +300) or inside the distance (projected +240, listed +250) on round-robin tickets.
Bets
- Leon Edwards (-250, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Finish Only Moneyline: Leon Edwards (-265, 0.25u) at DraftKings
Zerillo’s UFC 304 Bets
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Moneyline Bets
- Alice Ardelean (+160, 0.25u) at BetMGM
- Manel Kape (+154, 0.25u) at DraftKings; may increase wager before fight time
- Preston Parsons (-145, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Gregory Rodrigues (+118, 0.25u) at Caesars; may increase wager before fight time
- Bobby Green (-112, 0.25u) at FanDuel; will increase wager before fight time
- Leon Edwards (-250, 0.25u) at DraftKings
Prop Bets and Totals
- Mick Parkin, wins in Round 3 or on Decision (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Elliott/Parsons, Fight Goes to Decision (-108, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Brasil/McCann, Fight Goes to Decision (-124, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
- Nathaniel Wood, wins in Round 2 (+450, 0.15u) at BallyBet
- Nathaniel Wood, wins in Round 3 (+650, 0.1u) at BallyBet
- Duncan/Rodrigues, Under 2.5 Rounds (-175, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Arnold Allen, wins Inside the Distance (+330, 0.2u) at DraftKings
- Finish Only Moneyline: Arnold Allen (-145, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Bobby Green, wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Finish Only Moneyline: Leon Edwards (-265, 0.25u) at DraftKings
Parlays
- SGP (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Caolan Loughran & Over 1.5 Rounds
- SGP (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings: Nathaniel Wood & Over 1.5 Rounds
- SGP (-134, 0.25u) at BallyBet: Tom Aspinall & Under 1.5 Rounds
Live Bets
- Shauna Bannon Live after Round 1
- Mick Parkin Live after Round 1
- Caolan Loughran Live after Round 1
- Nathaniel Wood Live after Round 1
- Bobby Green Live after Round 1
- Curtis Blaydes Live after Round 1
