Today, with just one week until the start of Texas Tech's football season, we continue to rewatch the 2023 season, and unfortunately, that means we have to revisit missed opportunities for the Red Raiders.
After a disappointing double-overtime loss to Wyoming in Week 1, the Red Raiders returned home to face the No. 13 Oregon Ducks needing a win to get their season back on track, but once again the Red Raiders missed out on a winnable game.
Tech blew a 27-18 third-quarter lead in Oregon's 38-30 victory. The Red Raiders also had the ball with under a minute left and had a chance to win the game by just one point, but a sack led to a Ducks pick-six that sealed the win.
So let's take a closer look at the game and how the Red Raiders missed a golden opportunity to make headlines by beating a top 15 team on national television. First, let's look at the biggest reason Tech fell short.
In this game, the Red Raiders lost the turnover battle 4-0, a surefire way to lose to a good team like Oregon.
That's been a problem all season for the Red Raiders, as Tech struggled to both protect the ball and create turnovers.
In fact, Tech was 110th nationally in turnover margin and 13th overall in the Big 12. With an average of -.46 turnovers gained per game, the Red Raiders have been miserable all season in the most important statistical category in the sport.
That was a fatal flaw against Oregon. Three of the turnovers came when Tech was inside the Oregon 40-yard line and the other was a game-winning pick-six when the Red Raiders moved the ball to their own 47-yard line in an attempt to take the lead. That's not how you win big games.
One of the big factors in this game was the quarterback play of both teams. Tech's quarterback Tyler Shaw was motivated but not nearly good enough to beat his alma mater, while Oregon's Bo Nix was flawless.
Shaw ran for 101 yards and a touchdown, but was just 24-of-38 for 282 yards passing, had three interceptions, and lost a fumble that negated three touchdown passes.
On the game-deciding play, interception six in the fourth quarter, Shaw was dribbled past and lost the ball in the arms of an Oregon defender, but he didn't see Myles Price running free across the line in front of him. If Shaw had seen him and given him the ball at the right time, Price could have gone for 20 more yards.
Nix, meanwhile, completed 32 of 44 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers. He also rushed nine times for 46 yards and a crucial first down in the fourth quarter.
This game was more evenly matched than most people expected, which is why the quarterback's play was so important. In fact, the difference between Shaw and Knicks was what ultimately decided the game.
As the 2023 season progressed, Taj Brooks was undoubtedly the Red Raiders' best player — he rushed for over 1,500 yards and was named All-Big 12 — but against Oregon he was merely an afterthought.
For some reason, Tech decided to have the injury-prone Shaw run the ball 23 times in the game, but Brooks only carried the ball seven times, despite averaging a staggering 10.1 yards per run.
It was the second straight game where Brooks was underutilized and Shaw became the focal point of the ground game — in fact, Shaw had 20 more carries than Brooks through the first two games of 2023. More than almost any other factor, that was the reason Tech started 0-2 and missed two winnable games.
Joey McGwire places a heavy emphasis on analytics, and his coaching staff literally follows the book when making in-game decisions. Sometimes it works, but there are other times, such as against Oregon, when McGwire has been let down by the philosophy.
With Tech leading 27-25 going into the third quarter, the offense faced a fourth-down, two-yard situation at the Red Raiser 33. Instead of handing the ball to Brooks, Shaw was called for a keeper run that resulted in a zero-yard gain and an Oregon turnover.
Six plays later, the Ducks took a 28-27 lead with a field goal after replay officials overturned what appeared to be an interception by Rayshad Williams in the end zone.
In other words, Tech's defense nearly saved its head coach, but couldn't save McGuire himself, and that crucial exchange turned out to be a game-changing moment.
Tech's defense was playing well at this point, so the Red Raiders should have punted and played the old-fashioned way.
Had McGwire punted, the game might have gone in the Red Raiders' favor, or Williams might have gotten the interception in the end zone, but giving Oregon three points was not a smart move on McGwire's part and it certainly hurt the team.
We all knew it then, and the loss effectively ended any hope that the 2023 season would be something special for the Red Raiders.
An 0-2 start was sure to leave Tech looking like it was cheating, despite the high hopes that had been placed on McGuire's program in the offseason. Plus, the loss to the Ducks cost Tech its best chance of the season to get a win that would legitimize the program nationally.
There hasn't been a lot of talk this offseason about the Red Raiders entering the playoffs as a dark horse, and a lot of that is because Tech lost its first two games last season in big ways. Those two games were nationally televised, and the Red Raiders made enough mistakes to lose both games.
Maguire's team will have to win everything they've got in 2024, rather than going into 2024 as media darlings, but that's probably for the best, as this team never seems to live up to the lofty pre-season expectations.
