With summer already nearly halfway over and fall camps about 60 days away from the start of the 2024 college football season, preseason rankings have been circulated and “talk season” has officially begun ahead of what should be a historic year for football.
Now that both transfer portal windows have closed, ESPN has released its official preseason 134-team rankings in its Football Power Index, which simulates every game 20,000 times and rates each FBS team by the expected point differential per game that each team is projected to win against the average team on a neutral field.
Related: College Football 2024 Transfer Portal Team Rankings
And: Phil Steele's preseason Top 40 college football rankings
Which 10 teams came out on top in these rankings? Hint: There are a lot of Big Ten and SEC schools included.
The index projects Missouri, which returns key offensive personnel after an 11-win season, to be 15.4 points better than the average team in 2024 and have a 37.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff while going 9-3 in the regular season.
RELATED: Ranking the 10 college football teams expected to make their first CFP appearance
The computer projects the Volunteers to have a 36.9 percent chance of making the expansion playoffs, winning 8.6 games and scoring 16.6 points better than the average team. With Niko Iamareva as QB1, they should be one of the most exciting offenses in the SEC.
FPI projects the Sooners to win 8.2 games and score 17.2 points from the field in their SEC debut this season, good enough for a 36.6% chance of making the 12-team playoffs thanks to an expected strengthened defense while young quarterback Jackson Arnold learns behind a new line.
The expanded playoffs should give the Fighting Irish a shot at a title, but being out of the conference means they'll be denied a first-round bye. Still, computer projections have ND trailing opponents by 19 points, including a 10.1 total win margin and a 59 percent chance in the CFP.
Another school expected to be favored in the bigger playoff race, the Nittany Lions have regained their offensive skills and should once again play a strong defense, with FPI rankings projecting a 19.8 point improvement from the field to 10.1 wins and 2.3 losses.
The Crimson Tide are expected to win fewer than 10 games for the first time in a while, projected at 9.3-3 by the index, but they should be 21.9 points better than the supposed average team, which will put a bit of pressure on GOAT Karen DeBoer.
The Buckeyes, who made some aggressive moves in the offseason and moved a number of quality players, aren't at the top of the Big Ten Conference's preseason Power Index rankings, but they are still in the top four, projected to be 22.2 points better from the field, projected to win 10.2 games and lose 2.2 games, and have the second-best chance of winning the B1G title at 25.7%.
The Longhorns, who will be competing in the SEC after making their first playoff appearance last year, are primed for the Bears and are the second-best favorite in the new league in the index, projected to win Atlanta at a 24.2% rate, win their 10 games and outscore their opponents by an average of 22.9 points.
The Big Ten may have a new leader dog, as the Ducks enter the new conference as the index's projected favorite to win. Oregon, with two monster lines and the best receivers in the country, is projected to be better by 24.5 points from the field and win the CFP 10.8 times with a 76 percent chance.
As the top class in college football this season, the sport's up-and-coming team and the favorite to win its third championship in four years, Georgia is leading the country in the race to win the conference, make the playoffs and win the trophy. FPI projects the Dawgs to be 26.8 points better than teams on the field and to win 10.3 games while losing their projected two games.
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