On Saturday, the Golden State Warriors defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 128-121.
And LA lost Anthony Davis in the game. corneal abrasion After just 12 minutes, the game still felt like a reminder of the Warriors' dominance.
Their chances are slim (they are a play-in team, after all), but a hot shooting night from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson could add to their chances. The rapid development of Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podzemski during the season should also help.
Those things, along with the history and pedigree of a four-time championship-winning core, make Golden State arguably the most dangerous team among this season's potential play-in participants.
But that's not the only indication they could make the playoffs. You can see the rest below.
But first, let's take a look at some of the teams we can't believe enough of.
To give you some mention, we focus on teams that fall within a certain range of Basketball Reference's Playoff Probability Report.
You must have a less than 60% chance of finishing in the top 6 in your conference and a 10% or more chance of finishing in the top 10.
This leaves the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, and Brooklyn Nets in the East.
In the West, that includes the Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets.
And with all due respect, a deep playoff run (which I'll probably define arbitrarily as advancing to the conference finals) is not in the cards for this game. Pacers (Too young), Bull (too old), hawks (Hawks too) Net (Probably won't even participate in the play-ins) kings (the most difficult cut) and rocket (Too young). They came out.
Based on championship pedigree, recent performance, and a lot of subjectivity, the remaining teams are ranked from most dangerous to least dangerous to win several playoff series (and from there Who knows what will happen).
Chance to win in the West: 1.4%
The Mavericks' case begins and ends with a superstar duo who have already had a number of absurd moments in the playoffs.
Among players with at least 1,000 playoff minutes, Luka Doncic ranks fourth in box plus/minus. He is averaging 32.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 3.5 threes in 28 playoff games. He's already made it to the conference finals.
And there's a very real chance he could be the best individual player in the individual series against any opponent. In basketball, having your best players goes a long way when you only have 10 players on the floor at a time.
It's clear that Kyrie Irving had his playoff moments, too. He ranks in the top 60 on the aforementioned career playoff box plus/minus leaderboard. On his way to the title, he averaged 27.1 points, 3.9 assists, 2.1 threes, and 2.1 steals in his 2016 NBA Finals run.
It doesn't seem outrageous for either or both to get hot enough to take 4 out of 7 games, but the rest of the supporting cast (even after the additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford) could be on some teams. It has not brought about the same turnaround. Others are below.
It's open discussion Gafford, rookie Derek Lively II or recent EuroLeague star Dante Exum is the team's third-best player. Any decline after the top two spots will be difficult to overcome.
Chance to win in the West: 1.7%
If you look at talent alone, you could argue that the Phoenix Suns are in the top spot in this exercise.
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker both performed like top-15 players all season (at least they're getting into that level). range). With those two playing alongside Bradley Beal, Phoenix would be plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions (126.7 points per 100 possessions).
Grayson Allen (13.2 points average, league-leading 47.6 percent shooting from deep), Jusuf Nurkic (rebounding and passing more than make up for the loss of Deandre Ayton), Eric Gordon (12.0 points, 38.3 3-pointers) Success) Percentage) and Royce O'Neal also give this trio an underrated supporting role.
However, I am very concerned about durability here.
KD has only missed seven games, but he's 35 years old and has a solid injury history (including a torn Achilles tendon). Devin Booker missed 14 games and Beal only played in 38 games. If one of them falls in the series in the midst of a difficult West, things could quickly go south for the Suns.
If fewer than three members of that trio are on the floor, the net rating plummets to +-1.5.
Chance to win East: 1.8%
This is obviously completely about Joel Embiid.
If he comes back and is 90-95 percent of the player he was before being sidelined with a torn meniscus, the 76ers have a chance.
With his quantitative scoring, ability to get to the free throw line and rim protection, and Tyrese Maxey's rise to stardom, Philadelphia has one of the best duos in the league (at least that potential). ).
And this 76ers team has a selfless and versatile supporting cast designed to space the floor and fill in the gaps on both ends around those two.
Of course, health has been an issue for Embiid in multiple postseasons thus far. And even if he returns before the playoffs, it's impossible to know what his condition and conditioning will be.
Chance to win in the West: 0.3%
Saturday's loss between the Lakers and the Warriors may have worried fans, but AD's injury clearly affected that game. Additionally, his 9-10 matchup in the play-in between the two was pretty much decided before the game.
And even if the projection systems don't match up, there's still potential for a long climb from there to the third round of the postseason.
The Lakers just pulled it off last season (though they did it from the top half of the play-ins that time), and LeBron James and Anthony Davis both Top 10 to -15 This season's players.
If these two are healthy (which is certainly a big assumption), LA could probably reach a ceiling that no team other than the Denver Nuggets can reach.
In recent months, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reeves and Rui Hachimura have also looked ready for the postseason. The outside shooting that all three bring and the creativity of Reaves and Russell could make this an offensive juggernaut.
Age, lack of durability, and lack of depth could doom them, but it was easy to predict that the Lakers would be out even before last year's conference finals.
Chance to win in the West: 0.6%
The Miami Heat are coming off a lackluster four-game losing streak. And many of the same criticisms about health and age that were received with previous teams likely apply here as well.
But we should all know by now that the Jimmy Butler-era Miami Heat are a completely different team under the playoff lights.
This is Butler's fifth season with Miami, which reached the conference finals in three of his first four seasons. The Heat just made it to the Finals last season. They got there in a bubble, too.
When the pressure is on, Butler brings out some kind of inner Michael Jordan. He goes midrange to automatic. He dominates the game defensively. He can control possessions like an All-NBA point guard.
He and Bam Adebayo have already led the organization to three playoff appearances together, and this year's team may have a higher ceiling than the 2022-23 season.
Trading Terry Rozier for Kyle Lowry gave Miami's point guard time back. Tyler Herro missed most of last postseason. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has played like a veteran for most of his rookie season. And Duncan Robinson is having a second breakout season, expanding his game beyond 3-point shooting.
Going from the play-ins to the Finals feels like a once-in-a-generation event, and the Heat may have already exhausted their potential in this generation. However, it would be dangerous to exclude this team.
Chance to win in the West: 0.9%
There's a reason Golden State is currently at the bottom of the West's play-in mix. The chances of the Warriors making it to the conference finals or finals are not high.
However, there are many grounds to justify their position. Draymond Green's two suspensions were a factor (though the second suspension may have facilitated Jonathan Kuminga's breakout). It took Klay Thompson time to earn and adjust to a bench role. Chris Paul missed a lot of time with an injury. And Kuminga, Brandin Podzemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis weren't playing at their current level until recently.
Everything has been going well in recent months, and as long as Stephen Curry is around, Golden State will have an identity.
The Warriors were five games below .500 when they lost to the Lakers in late January. They are now four games over .500 after defeating the same team on Saturday.
And like Luka with the Mavs, Curry is talented enough to emerge as the Most Valuable Player in any series.
