Predicting Wisconsin Football's Big Ten Standings

If you didn't get the memo, the Open Jim mailbag has changed to a one question at a time format.

Check out my first two articles from last week: one on Greg Gard’s staff and the other on how athletic directors evaluate coaches in the age of name, image and likeness.

Mailbag questions can be submitted to me at X (@JimPolzinWSJ) or via email at jpolzin@madison.com.

Today's question is:

It's still only spring practice, but with the expanded Big Ten schedule, where do you think Wisconsin sits in the conference standings as of today?

— Jeff Ostach ☮️ (@jeff_ostach) May 21, 2024

I think Wisconsin has a chance to compete for the top spot in the Big Ten West Division.

Wait, what's that? Sorry, but old habits die hard.

Polzin: Why searching for NIL answers is frustrating

I actually looked at the schedules of each of the Big Ten Conference's 18 teams (it still feels weird to say it like that) to get a better understanding of whether some teams have a harder (or easier) schedule than others. The teams are pretty evenly matched in the middle of the conference, which makes game-by-game projections complicated and somehow the win/loss totals don't add up.

We will split the teams into three groups based on their projected performance this season.

Tier 1: Michigan State University, Ohio State University, Oregon State University, Pennsylvania State University, and University of Southern California.

Tier 2: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, Wisconsin.

Tier 3: Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA.

As I said before, the middle of the pack is pretty even. At first glance, I projected Nebraska to go 6-3 in the Big Ten, but that's a pretty good bet for a team that hasn't won a conference game since 2016. For example, I projected the Cornhuskers to win at Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska should win those games, but… it's Nebraska. Plus, they have a close game against the Badgers later in the season.

OPEN GYM: Why won't the Wisconsin football team play Alabama under the lights?

What does this mean for Wisconsin? I think 5-4 is reasonable for the Badgers, but I think 4-5 is more likely than 6-3.

That would put Luke Fickell's team at probably no higher than sixth in the expanded Big Ten, possibly no higher than 10th.

It's a tough schedule, and as I've said for months now, Wisconsin will likely be a better team in 2023, but the Badgers' record may not reflect that.