Lately, the NBA playoffs have felt increasingly disconnected from the regular season. Last season, for example, the Miami Heat became the first team to reach the NBA Finals despite being underdogs in the regular season. The Denver Nuggets, on the other hand, had the worst point differential per 100 possessions through 82 games of any champion over the past 20 years, but they cruised to the title.
And then there are the players. Sometimes the circumstances are radically different, and some stars rise while others fall. Having a few days off between each match not only provides more rest than usual, but also allows for more careful game planning and adjustments by the team, exposing opponents' weaknesses and improving their own. can hide your weaknesses.
The gameplay itself is also different. Here are his five main ways his on-court accomplishments change in the postseason.
(1) Slow pace
In all but two seasons since 1980, there have been fewer possessions per game in the playoffs than in the regular season. For example, in 2023, each team had 99.2 offensive possessions per game in the regular season and 96.1 in the postseason. Fewer fast break opportunities and tighter half-court defenses mean more extended possessions.
(2) Teams shoot more 3s.
As playoff defenses become more solid, it becomes more difficult for teams to generate easy shots close to the basket. In fact, throughout the era of player tracking since 2014, touches in the paint in the postseason have consistently declined. As a result, the team settled on hiring more long jumpers.
In all but two years since the 3-point line was introduced in 1980, the percentage of 3-pointers was higher in the playoffs than in the regular season. However, the past few seasons have been pretty flat.
(3) Teams will have fewer threes.
The team had a three-man life-or-death choice in the playoffs, but those shots are harder to make under bright lights. Of the 160 teams that participated in the playoffs over the past 10 years, only 35% improved their 3-point shooting percentage in the postseason.
(4) Further isolated crimes
When you think of the “NBA Playoffs,” the first image that comes to mind may be of superstars like Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant going one-on-one with the opposing team's best defenders at the end of a game.
That's no coincidence. In each of the past 10 playoffs, teams have relied more on isolation offense. That's because a more robust defense would likely shut down the action the team has used all season. Then Superstar intervenes. Related to this, there will always be fewer passes and assists during the postseason.
(5) More fouls
Aggressive postseason defenses that force teams out of offensive sets while limiting transition opportunities and shots near the basket come at the cost of more fouls.
Historical data shows that the idea that referees “let you play” in the playoffs is not true. According to PBP statistics, in 19 of the last 23 years, the percentage of two-pointers that resulted in free throws was higher in the postseason than in the regular season.
Remarkably, this did not happen last year. In the 2022-23 regular season, foul rates on shot attempts inside the arc skyrocketed as offensive players were allowed to initiate contact and then flop toward the call. However, in the 2023 playoffs, referees swallowed more whistles and brought that rate back to normal.
The amount of room officials allow for more physical defenders changed dramatically during the 2023-24 regular season. But regardless of how referees decide the 2024 NBA Playoffs, statistics show the postseason will be different than the regular season.
