• Ideally, Justin Jefferson falls: Jefferson probably won’t be as productive without Kirk Cousins but he can still be a top-five fantasy wide receiver.
• Wait on running backs: The value is at other positions in the first three rounds leading to just one running back selected in the first five rounds.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues where someone is picking seventh, eighth or ninth. The perfect draft series takes current ADPs from expert and casual drafts combined to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Wednesday, July 17
Round 1, Picks 7-9: Draft a wide receiver
By consensus ADP, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are both top-six selections, which is a little too high when Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown are available. They are much safer bets in the first round. Even if the top five wide receivers are gone, picking A.J. Brown is a relatively safe pick in this range.
Top Target: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson has been the most talented wide receiver in the league the last few seasons, but he’s falling to the back half of the first round due to the Minnesota Vikings‘ quarterback change. Jefferson averaged 21.8 PPR points per game last season with Kirk Cousins and 18.6 without him. Ideally, Minnesota’s quarterback play will be a little better than the backups last year with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy.
Possible Targets: Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Round 2, Picks 16-18: Draft a quarterback
Last season, the perfect pick in the second round was often a quarter. Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP was a bit high, but either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. Those two quarterbacks also happened to be the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost Jason Kelce and Allen lost Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at both passing, elite at rushing and runs a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss but the Buffalo Bills general recharge means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
Round 3, Picks 31-33: Draft a wide receiver
Several players are the clear top wide receiver on their team with a long history of fantasy production to pick from. There is no need for a quarterback after picking one in Round 2, and there is better value at tight end later. There is more risk surrounding Round 3 running backs than ideal, so wide receiver makes a lot of sense.
Top Target: D.K. Metcalf
Metcalf has been a top-16 fantasy wide receiver in three of the last four seasons. The one exception was last season where he had a slow start but was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver from Week 8 until the end of the season. There is reason for optimism this season with Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. The Seahawks should be passing the ball a lot given Grubb’s history at Washington, and most importantly, they should run more plays. The Seattle Seahawks have run the fewest offensive plays in two of the last three seasons and have consistently been below average. A faster pace should help the fantasy production of everyone in the offense.
Possible Targets: Michael Pittman Jr., Deebo Samuel Sr., Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs, DeVonta Smith
Round 4, Picks 40-42: Draft a running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. This running back tier is valuable if everything goes according to plan but a lot can go wrong. All six backs available at this point have averaged at least 14.5 PPR points per game over a significant stretch of time during the last two seasons, but most of the teams these running backs played for have invested a significant draft pick on another running back. Enough has been invested in these six that they are unlikely to completely disappear even if they lose playing time.
Top Target: Rachaad White
White was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, finishing as the fourth-best running back overall despite a 3.6 yards per carry average. He was tied for second in terms of rushing attempts and fourth in terms of receptions. Part of his success was simply staying healthy as he only ranked 10th in fantasy points per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers added Bucky Irving, which will cut into White’s total touches, but there is also a chance White becomes more efficient when he gets the ball.
Possible Targets: Alvin Kamara, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones
Round 5, Picks 55-57: Draft a tight end
Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: George Kittle
On a per-play basis, Kittle has been roughly as good as Travis Kelce, but he plays for the San Francisco 49ers, who have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, while Kelce is with the Kansas City Chiefs, who are among the most pass-heavy. Having Brock Purdy at quarterback has helped Kittle’s efficiency with more big plays and more touchdowns. Kittle was the only tight end last season to reach 1,000 yards, but he doesn’t get as many receptions as other great tight ends. Kittle has ranked in the top six in fantasy points per game for a tight end in each of the last six seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect him to extend that streak to seven seasons.
Possible Targets: Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, David Njoku, Jake Ferguson, Brock Bowers
Round 6, Picks 64-66: Draft a running back
The running backs at this point of the draft are the favorites to start when healthy but are facing significant competition. While these running backs aren’t necessarily the most exciting names, only so many are expected to be clear starters on their team even if they are on the older side. It’s good to have someone you can put in your starting lineup on a weekly basis as long as they aren’t injured.
Top Target: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson didn’t quite live up to expectations last season with 12.1 fantasy points per game, but a lot of that had to do with the Patriots offense more so than Stevenson. The Patriots ran 98 plays in the red zone — 22 fewer than the next worst team. The quarterback situation should be a lot better this season, as well as the wide receivers. Ideally, the young offensive linemen can also improve, leading to more efficiency. At the very least, the Patriots still believe in Stevenson after recently signing a four-year, $36 million extension.
Possible Targets: James Conner, Zamir White, Jonathon Brooks, D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard
Round 7, Picks 79-81: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers before making lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Diontae Johnson
Johnson was able to finish as WR28 in 2022 while tied for sixth in targets with Kenny Pickett in his rookie season. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers where he should be their X receiver and the team’s clear leader in targets. Everything indicates we could be in store for a similar season to 2022 if Young can’t improve. If Young can improve, we could see a season like 2021, where he was the overall WR8.
Possible Targets: DeAndre Hopkins, Rashee Rice, Ladd McConkey, Jordan Addison, Tyler Lockett
Round 8, Picks 88-90: Draft a running back
At this point, this team should already have two running backs, but it’s time to pick up a third. There are a few running backs in two-player committees where either one has a chance to have a breakout season given their and their team’s talent. The eighth round is the perfect time to pick up one of these running backs because once they are gone, any other running back is much more of a gamble.
Top Target: Tony Pollard
Pollard has the fourth-highest offensive grade for a running back over the last four seasons at 91.3, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Expectations were high last season after the Dallas Cowboys let Ezekiel Elliott go. Unfortunately, it took time for him to recover from his leg injuries from the 2022 divisional playoff round. By Week 11, he was back to his former self. He was the highest-graded rusher from that point on, finishing as RB13. He was finally receiving the playing time he deserved but wasn’t getting the ball enough when he was on the field.
Now, he’s with the Tennessee Titans and competing for playing time with Tyjae Spears. The sophomore running back is also very talented, but given Pollard’s past production, he has a chance to be the lead back in the Joe Mixon role in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Warren, Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., Tyjae Spears
Round 9, Picks 103-105: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Wide receiver is the best option here, but there is still an important decision to make. You can draft a proven veteran or one of the younger wide receivers in the league. Tyler Lockett or Courtland Sutton are very likely to beat their ADPs if they stay healthy, but they are unlikely to finish among the top 24 without some touchdown luck. The younger wide receivers are less likely to beat their ADP, but they have a higher chance of being an elite wide receiver this season. The right decision likely depends on how risky the previous wide receivers picked have been.
Top Target: Courtland Sutton
Sutton has finished over 60% of his games as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver each of the last two seasons but has rarely finished among the top 12. Sutton is the clear top wide receiver on the Denver Broncos‘ depth chart after trading away his main competition Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton reports to training camp despite his contract situation or if he receives a new contract, he’s a perfect complementary piece to a team drafting many wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Tyler Lockett, Keon Coleman, Devin Singletary, Nick Chubb, Mike Williams
Round 10, Picks 112-114: Draft a wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d advise stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. A running back or wide receiver who somewhat exceeds expectations here would be in your starting lineup in a good matchup but even a quarterback or tight end who is picked here and has a good season won’t start over the star quarterback and tight end selected, regardless of the matchup.
Top Target: Tyler Lockett
Lockett had been a consistent fantasy asset with four straight 1,000-yard and eight-plus touchdown seasons, but he gained fewer yards and caught fewer touchdowns last season at 31 years old. His decline was only in his statistics, as his PFF receiving grade was very consistent. He’s finished between 77-83 in each of the last six seasons. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. While everyone is excited for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, ideally, Grubb will be able to take advantage of Lockett’s talent to keep him fantasy-relevant.
Possible Targets: Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Curtis Samuel, Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed
Round 11, Picks 127-129: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Brandin Cooks, Rico Dowdle, Rashid Shaheed, Jerry Jeudy
Round 12, Picks 136-138: Draft a wide receiver or running back
Top Target: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle hasn’t been given many opportunities in the NFL with less than 100 rushing attempts in his four-year NFL career. The only reason he’s worth considering is because of the Cowboys backfield. Given Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons‘ contract situations, the Cowboys’ only noteworthy investment at running back was bringing back Ezekiel Elliott. The future Cowboys Ring of Honor member already has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, ranking in the top 40 all-time. Unless Dallas brings in another running back or someone lower on the depth chart breaks out in training camp, Dowdle will have significant volume at some point this season. In fantasy football, volume is more important than talent.
Possible Targets: Chuba Hubbard, Brandin Cooks, Antonio Gibson, Gabe Davis, Tyler Allgeier
Round 13, Picks 151-153: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team’s offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Gabe Davis, Jaleel McLaughlin, Adam Thielen, Darnell Mooney, Ja’Lynn Polk
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
