The Thunder managed to pull off a 94-92 victory in Game 1, scoring just 196 points in that game, but there's reason to believe these offenses will bounce back tonight. Find out why with our Pelicans vs. Thunder betting picks below.
The New Orleans Pelicans won't go into the night quietly. Losing Zion Williamson in the biggest game of his career, at least in the short term, could have dashed the Pelicans' hopes, but instead they bounced back in Game 1 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but at the last minute. It didn't come close.
That battle should be memorable, but it's even more so knowing that the Pelicans didn't get to the free throw line as expected. That should be fixed tonight, and fixing it should improve your overall score.
Back the total with free NBA picks as we dig into Pelicans vs. Thunder predictions. Tips are Wednesday, April 24th at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Pelicans vs. Thunder predictions
my best bet
211.5 or higher (-110 on DraftKings)
my analysis
The New Orleans Pelicans had the eighth-best percentage in the NBA in getting to the free-throw line over the final six weeks of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder sent opponents to the field at the ninth-highest rate.
But then New Orleans made just nine free throws on Sunday.
Instinctively, I attribute it to the more physical atmosphere of the playoffs. Referees don't call that many fouls. And while that's true to an extent, or at least true enough, in six series with two games, he's averaging 43.1 free throws per game. The Pelicans and Thunder combined for 22 is an outlier, and tonight was an outlier to ignore.
One game, even one playoff game, doesn't change what we know about these teams. We have reliable information throughout the season.
However, the sportsbook has dropped the Game 2 total by 5 points compared to where the Game 1 total ended. There's no way Sunday night's information would change the information by five points. The game ended 94-92, but if New Orleans and OKC had averaged their average number of free throws, they would have added 16 more expected points.
This was still well short of the 216.5 total and tonight's 211.5, but would the total have moved the same way if the final score had been below 200? And even if he did shoot an average number of free throws, it would have been two fewer than he averaged in other series.
It would be an overreaction to reduce this total so much. And that ignores the distinct possibility that tonight's host staff leans in a different direction than Sunday.
Pelicans vs. Thunder Same Game Parlay (SGP)
212 or more
Brandon Ingram 19.5 points or less
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 28.5 points or higher
Brandon Ingram scored just 12 points on 17 shots in Game 1, his third in four games since returning from a bone bruise in his knee. He is averaging 15 points over the past four games, shooting just 43.1 percent from the field on 14.5 shots per game.
While doubting him may hurt your basketball soul, it's the right thing to do until Ingram, a traditional scorer, returns to form.
Even when he's at his best, he doesn't shoot many free throws. His free-throw percentage plummeted this season as New Orleans ran a more balanced offense, taking just 4.8 per game this season. So even if Ober gets some cash thanks to officiating, that doesn't mean Ingram will enjoy the influx.
But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would. He made 7.8 free throws per game over the final six weeks of the regular season, but given how the NBA changed the officiating role after the All-Star break, this part of the conversation would normally be It's even more applicable than that. Before the hiatus, he was taking 9.1 free throws per game.
A generous whistle tonight could get him up to that rate again tonight.
Learn how to bet on same game parlays with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pelicans vs. Thunder odds
Pelicans vs Thunder live odds
Get the latest odds for Game 2 of the NBA Playoffs between Pelicans and Thunder.
Pelicans vs. Thunder opening odds
- spread: New Orleans +8.5 | Oklahoma City -8.5
- money line: New Orleans +290 | Oklahoma City -400
- over/under:213.5 or more | less than 213.5
Pelicans vs. Thunder spread and over/under analysis
- To add to the curiosity of tonight's total, the spread started with the Thunder trailing by 8.5 points, the same as they ended Game 1. It is unconventional to adjust one side of the odds board and not the other.
- The spread was down to -7.5 early Monday afternoon, a reasonable adjustment after a close Game 1.
- The total opened at 213.5, an eyebrow-raisingly noticeable rise from the numbers at the end of Game 1, but had fallen to 211 by late Monday afternoon.
Pelicans vs. Thunder trends
The Pelicans are 9-3 against the spread on the road since March 1st. Find more of his NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Thunder.
Pelicans vs. Thunder match information
| position: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| date: | Wednesday, April 24, 2024 |
| Tips: | 9:30pm (EST) |
| tv set: | TNT, True TV |
Latest injuries for Pelicans vs. Thunder
Not intended for use with MA.
Affiliate disclosure: Cover may receive advertising commissions for visits to sportsbooks or betting sites.
