Most of the NHL free agent class of 2025 is gone. The New York Islanders kept Mike Reilly and made a rare splash by signing Anthony Duclair to a four-year, $14 million contract on July 1. But the Islanders have flown under the radar despite rumors of significant trades involving Nikolaj Ehlers and Martin Necas.
The Islanders won the NHL draft, retained all of their draft picks, and acquired some new prospects, including blue chip Cole Yzerman. As I explained yesterday, the Islanders' roster is more than full. They have salary cap space and roughly $1 million left to spend on three NHL RFAs: Simon Holmstrom, Ruslan Iskhakov, and Oliver Wahlstrom.
The rest of the summer is likely to be a quiet one for the Islanders, with some vocal supporters advocating for Ehlers to be added if Winnipeg is willing to move the Danish winger, which would certainly boost the Islanders to new heights and ease some of the immediate pressure on Maxim Tsyplakov on Brock Nelson's wing.
Towards 2025
But the assets the Islanders currently have will undoubtedly become more valuable throughout the season, and burning through draft capital this early in the 2025 draft would severely impact the Islanders' ability to make a big splash before the 2025 NHL trade deadline.
The list of free agents for the 2025 class is intriguing. The Islanders have their hands full trying to put the team together and have about $20 million to spend, but they need to extend the contracts of RFAs Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov and Samuel Bolduc. UFAs include Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Hudson Fasching and Riley.
That's not a lot of money for those players, and it doesn't take into account how much Tsyplakov could make if he has a good season. He's also an RFA. What if William Dufour breaks through the forward glut?
Jean-Gabriel Paget and Anders Lee are likely to be moved after next season as they both have just one year left on their contracts, making it much easier to move either or both of them, which could add another $12 million if both are off their contracts.
How much does it cost to keep everyone?
Dobson's long-term deal could be expensive. If he has another 70+ point season, he could get a minimum bonus of $8.5-9 per year. If Nelson has another 30-goal, 70-point season, his bonus would be higher. The problem is he'll be 33 this season, so it's hard to imagine a lot of money being spent on him long-term. Lue could give him a 7-8 year deal like Scott Mayfield, but with a lower annual salary than he would fetch on the market.
Palmieri won't be over the current salary cap, at least not until age 34. Bolduc and Tsyplakov will determine their fortunes and salaries with their play this season. Free agents Riley and Fasching could also be included in that group.
With Romanov, everything is a bit iffy. How much is Romanov's long-term contract worth right now? He's primarily a defensive defenceman, scoring 7 goals and 22 points last year. If I were to make a simple guess, I'd say he'll get an 8-year deal for roughly the same amount as Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech's 8-year deals.
Conservative estimates put the Islanders well over their $20 million budget. Fortunately, the salary cap will increase by roughly $5 million, giving the Islanders roughly $25 million to spend before they have to move Padje or Lee.
What will happen next year?
Now, the Islanders have a lot of work internally over the next few months. Who can pull off that job?
Minnesota has another player whose contract expires next year, Brock Boeser, as well as the aforementioned Ehlers, Travis Konecny and Brad Marchand.
And that's just the lower-tier players. Mikko Rantanen, Mitchell Marner and Leon Draisaitl are all on expiring contracts. Old friend John Tavares is also on an expiring contract. Even Sidney Crosby is set to become a free agent.
Common sense would dictate that only two of those items on that list will actually make it to market.
But some guys may get traded. Bo Holbert was acquired because of an expiring contract, and Lue signed him long before the free-agent market opened.
By controlling key assets, the Islanders may be able to acquire key players in-season that will help the team be more successful, as Holbert did in 2022-23.
Where do the Islanders fit in?
There are three teams that can be classified as clearly better than the Islanders this season: the Rangers, Hurricanes, and possibly the Devils. But nothing is certain. The Rangers and especially the Hurricanes have worse depth than they did last year. The Islanders have a stronger depth and a coach who played at a 100-point pace without a training camp.
The Capitals made a lot of moves, but it's hard to say they were good for them. The Flyers were a watered-down team, but if Matvey Mishukov is real, they're a very interesting team again. The Penguins might finish last in their division. Their roster is the same, they have the same mediocre goalie, and their star player is a year older. The Blue Jackets got their biggest win, Sean Monahan, but that doesn't get them anywhere. They still haven't traded away their desired player, Patrick Laine.
So, as currently constructed, the Islanders should certainly be in the running to win the championship, and once Ilya Sorokin hits form, the sky is the limit.
Patience is not usually a fun option. But flexibility might be better this year. Who knows what the NHL will look like in six months. The Islanders have a strong enough roster and plenty of time. There is no reason to exercise patience and wait for things to work out. If a trade should be made, make a trade. But don't force it.
Without anyone realising, things could be even better in terms of the options available.
