Pro Beach
June 2, 2024
This weekend's Volleyball World Challenge tournament in Stare Jablonki, Poland, was the penultimate tournament of the Olympic qualification period and was seen by many as the deciding factor in beach volleyball's Olympic race.
But nothing has been officially decided.
Americans Trevor Crabb and Theo Brunner failed to get out of their pools, while rivals Chase Budinger and Miles Evans finished in fifth place, 540 points behind, with nothing decided yet.
Stefan Bomans and Jorick de Groot of the Netherlands took bronze, while compatriots Matthew Immers and Steven van de Velde, Alex Brouwer and Robert Meesen came in ninth and fifth respectively, but these did not count towards their Olympic points total and nothing is decided.
Spain's Lili Fernandez and Paula Soria won their first medal in a challenge-or-above event, beating out Canada's Sarah Pavan and Molly McBain for the final Olympic qualifying spots, but nothing is set in stone yet.
Despite the Grimalt brothers, Marco and Esteban, losing out to Julian Holl and Alex Holst of Austria for the final Olympic spot, nothing is decided yet.
It all hinges on next week's Ostrava Elite 16 in the Czech Republic, the final tournament for 17 months.
Only then will the outcome of this long and winding Olympic race be decided.
Here's what all potential qualifying teams for the Paris Olympics need to do to get there.
Trevor Crabb and Theo Brunner
The task facing Trevor Crabb and Theo Brunner in Ostrava is no small one: to reach the final of the Ostrava Elite 16. In other words, to achieve something they have yet to do as a duo.
Their best finish as a team is ninth in the Elite 16, but fourth place at worlds is obviously harder. Is it possible? Yes. Is it easy? Definitely not. They'll come through Wednesday's qualifiers, as will Budinger and Evans.
Of course, Budinger and Evans can settle this for themselves. With a 540-point lead, they need to finish fifth or better to get their name on the record books. If they make it to the semi-finals, they'll book a place in Paris regardless of what Crabb and Brunner do.
Alex Brower and Robert Meeuwsen
When I asked my brother-in-law, a statistics major at BYU, to calculate the odds of each team making it to Paris, he did so by running a million simulations of every event in 2024.
Alex Brower and Robert Meeuwsen passed 99.1 percent of the simulations.
They are currently ranked 12th in the world, but 280 points behind Steven van de Velde and Matthew Immers, and 580 points behind Stefan Bomans and Jorick de Groot, who won the bronze medal in Poland to add to their total of 720. Since the Olympics limit the number of participating teams from each federation to two, a world ranking of 12th is not enough in this case.
To earn the 280 points, Brouwer and Meeuwsen would need to finish in the semifinals or better, assuming Immers and van de Velde don't earn any points. If Immers and van de Velde finish ninth or better, who will advance directly to the main draw, they would earn 300 points, pushing the figurative goalposts even further away for Brouwer and Meeuwsen.
The only way that Bomans and de Groot could be eliminated from the Olympics is if Brouwer and Meesen win gold in Ostrava.
Brouwer and Maesen's challenge is similar to that of Crabbe and Brunner: to qualify and reach the podium.
If not, it will be four new faces representing the Netherlands at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Esteban and Marco Grimalt
One of the most in-form teams on the Beach Pro Tour has had an impressive 2024 season, adding 820 points to secure a place in the final Olympic qualifying round alongside Austria's Julian Holl and Alex Holst.
However, Hol and Horst, who have just 200 points this year, won the tiebreaker determined by their total gross points throughout the qualifying period.
Grimalz needs to add to his points in Ostrava, which means he needs to qualify and get ninth place, and hope that Horl and Horst don't get the same result. If both teams qualify, Grimalz needs to finish ninth and at least one place ahead of Horl and Horst.
For the other men's teams closing in on Austria and Chile, particularly Australia's Zachary Schubert and Thomas Hodges and Cuba's Jorge Arayo and Noslen Diaz, all they need to do is see Grimaltz and Hol and Horst eliminated before the semifinals.
Sarah Pavan and Molly McBain
Sarah Pavan and Molly McBain hold final Olympic qualifying spots through the entire 2024 season.
To Stare Jablonki.
Although they finished in ninth place overall, Spain held the lead with 140 points over Canada thanks to bronze medal wins from Lili Fernandez and Paula Soria.
The biggest obstacle for Pavan and McBain isn't which team, but that they're still on the reserve list for the Ostrava Elite 16. If three teams aren't eliminated from the tournament by Tuesday night, Poland's Olympic appearances will be over. If all three teams are eliminated, Pavan and McBain will qualify, and Spain would need to finish ninth or higher without adding any points.
Many may be wondering, ‘What about the Continental Cup?’ Currently, only Melissa Umana Paredes and Brandi Wilkerson have qualified for the Olympics through points, so why not Pavan and McBain qualify through the NORCECA Continental Cup?
Short answer: No.
NORCECA changed the rules this year so that each federation can only field one team in the Continental Cup instead of two. To determine who will compete in the Continental Cup, Canada has decided that the top four teams in 2024 will compete for an Olympic spot. That team is Sophie Bukovec and Heather Bansley. So Bukovec and Bansley, who finished fourth at Stare Jablonki after withdrawing from the bronze medal match due to injury, will represent Canada in the Continental Cup unless they earn the necessary points in Ostrava next week (520 points are needed to finish in the top four in the Czech Republic).
Dorena Klinger and Ronja Klinger
The Klinger sisters from Austria are having a really close season. They've come close one after the other. They've reached the quarterfinals three times but never the semifinals, and they've lost twice in the final round of the Elite 16 qualifiers. But they're still mathematically in the running to win, and unlike Pavan and McBain, they're seeded 15th in the Elite 16 qualifiers in Ostrava, so at least they have a chance.
They are 380 points behind Lili Fernandez and Paula Soria and need a top four finish to overtake Spain and claim the final Olympic berth.
Anouk Verges Despres and Joanna Mader
The most intriguing battle in this Olympic race is between the Berge-Despres sisters, Anouk and Zoe. Tokyo Olympic bronze medallists Anouk and Joanna Mader are 320 points behind their sister Zoe and Esmee Bobner, and will need to finish in the top four to close the gap.
Carla Borger and Sandra Ittlinger
Though it's not quite the family affair as the Swiss women's, the German women's race is an equally fascinating internal battle. Carla Borger and Sandra Ittlinger have risen through the ranks in 2024, adding 1,740 points to their total, moving them to within 220 of Laura Ludwig and Luisa Lipmann. Borger and Ittlinger will need to finish fifth or better in Ostrava to catch Ludwig and Lipmann, who have already competed in four Olympics and won a gold medal in 2016.
