Florida State is back to just 56.4% of last season's performance after losing 10 players to the NFL Draft and several more to the portal and graduation. A roster full of new faces and a schedule that includes new conference members and high-profile matchups makes the team difficult to predict, but trends that emerged during spring training and established during Mike Norvell's tenure offer a glimpse of what to expect.
With just a few minutes remaining until the Seminoles take to the field at the Irish, there’s no better time to make some predictions for the 2024 season. all We don't know if any of this will happen, but here are four bold predictions for Florida State this year and four safe ones.
2024 FSU Football: Bold Predictions
1. Malik Benson will be a 1,000-yard receiver.
The University of Alabama transfer steadily outpaced the rest of the wide receiver corps during the spring season, and though there was a scare with an injury during the spring game, he avoided it and had a dominant performance in fall camp to get the season off to a critical start.
But he's only able to reach this milestone because of the talent around him. DJ Uiagalelei's first read will favor the No. 10 every time it matters. The rest of the receivers struggled with drops, chemistry and physicality, all of which are Benson's strengths. Defenses may roll coverage in Benson's favor, but Mike Norvell's specialty is finding ways to get the ball in the hands of playmakers. After spring training, Benson appears to be the only player with those traits. That's why he'll be the first Seminoles receiver to hit 1,000 yards since 2019.
2. Brock Glenn will start at least one game this season.
DJ Uiagalelei is 6'5″, 250 pounds and looks more like a freight train than a quarterback in person. Durability shouldn't be an issue, but accuracy and anticipation could be.
Coach Mike Norvell wanted the transfer student to earn the position, and Brock Glenn practiced with the first team early in the spring, but it was a far cry from the ACC Championship game. Working on the offseason on offense has given Glenn more confidence and more visible leadership, even though he was just a freshman last season. At 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, Glenn has the build of a college quarterback, the athleticism to extend plays and throw difficult passes down the field, and the maturity to lead a team.
Uiagalelei, on the other hand, had moments of great play and moments of head scratching. For every great deep pass, there was one pass he wished he could take back. His intangible qualities make him a perfect fit for this team. His attitude stabilizes the team compared to the energetic Norvell, and his ability to run the ball with his size will make a difference in a run-heavy offense. But it's questionable how much of a difference his size will make for this team. If his receivers don't get anyone open on the field, the ball won't get to them, no matter how strong his arm is. When teams stack up to stop the run, his size won't get him very far down the field. Glenn could energize the team in a tough mid-season stretch, and his dominance and accuracy of the playbook could lead to him fitting in better, at least for one game.
3. Florida State will be a single-digit betting favorite for half of the games.
Florida State's schedule is underrated. Two games in September against Memphis and SMU will not be easy. Both teams won 10 games apiece last season and return coaches, quarterbacks and other key players on both sides of the ball. Both games will be packed with off-field storylines, and FSU will be playing SMU for the first time, with Memphis being Norvell's last stop on the road.
Later in the season, Clemson returns a vaunted front seven that might be the best in the conference, then the Seminoles travel to Durham for a quiet Friday night game against the Duke Blue Devils and rookie quarterback Ma'lik Murphy, who came off a big break during his brief stint as Texas' QB in 2023.
Florida State vs. Miami is a coin flip on paper, with DraftKings currently listing the game as a pick-'em. Then the Noles travel north to frigid South Bend in mid-November to play (Florida State is currently a 3.5-point underdog to Notre Dame). The Seminoles finish the season against Florida, who may be fazed by the tougher late-season schedule than any team has faced in years. Florida State is currently considered an 11-point favorite, but games with players who boast talent in certain areas are always going to be close.
4. Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. each recorded double-digit sacks this season.
Jared Barth had nine sacks last year and Patrick Payton had seven despite playing more depth and snaps than coach Mike Norvell would have liked.
Payton has added 15 more pounds this season, and Marvin Jones Jr. looks just like former FSU player and current New York Jets defensive end Jermaine Johnson.
They used a variety of pass-rush moves throughout the spring, keeping FSU's tackles off-balance and screwing up plays multiple times per practice session, and both are playing with the intention of making a first-round pick, with Jones Jr. proving Georgia was a mistake in not taking him.
Their pass rush skills are undeniable, but their run defense has improved this season, so they should have plenty of opportunities to get after the quarterback. Grady Kelly and Zion Lolohea are run stoppers who set hard edges and win inside with their technique. The secondary, led by Shyheim Brown, is looking to get more physical this season and has no problem jumping blocks and making tackles in space. Up the middle, DJ Lundy and Cam Riley are corralling ball carriers and becoming more adaptable to fill gaps and punish running backs. The run defense was an issue at times last year, but Norvell and Adam Fuller have plugged the holes.
Payton and Jones Jr. will benefit on third and long downs.
2024 FSU Football: Safe Predictions
1. Florida State has two running backs with over 500 yards.
2020 and 2023 are the only two seasons under Coach Norvell where FSU has not had two running backs pass for more than 500 yards. Trey Benson was the only ball carrier to surpass 500 yards last season, while Lawrence Toafili fell 37 yards short.
Though the passing game was questioned in the spring, Florida State's ability to get the ball on the ground has become their identity, a typical identity for Coach Norvell's teams. Toafili, the ACC Championship MVP who recorded 400+ yard seasons in three of his four years in Tallahassee, took another step forward as a leader during the offseason and is ready to reclaim his spot as a mainstay after years of experience in the system. The addition of Roydell Williams, who had 560 yards rushing last season with the Alabama Crimson Tide, adds a defense-wearing element to the ground game. A strong offensive line bodes well for the running game. Maurice Smith is in his sixth season and has become the linchpin of the unit, with the first eight players in the two-deep structure having played multiple seasons of college football.
2. Shyheim Brown leads the defense in tackles.
No player stood out more in spring practice than Shyheim Brown. His attitude, work ethic and leadership filled the gap left by the seniors who left the team last season. On the field, he is a key part of a solid defensive season. If Adam Fuller is healthy, he will face Brown on every snap in 2024, as the safety takes the next step in his development. But his defining characteristic is his versatility to line up at any position on the field and act as a firefighter to snuff out dangers on the perimeter. It remains to be seen whether Fuller will find a steady partner for Brown, but his consistency should make up for any shortcomings.
Last season, Tatum Bethune led the team in tackles with 71, but the next two players behind him were linebackers. Brown was fourth on the team with 53.
Next season, he'll be at the top.
3. Florida State's offensive line is a finalist for the Joe Moore Award
Five years after being the worst offensive line in college football, Alex Atkins' squad could be one of the best. The depth and talent on the line of scrimmage rivals any team in the country, and they return four starters from a team that reached the semifinals last season. The only question mark is Robert Scott Jr.'s health, but Darius Washington was All-ACC last season and should have no problem filling in. Transfers TJ Ferguson and Richie Leonard are perfect guards to fill the gaps left by Casey Roddick and Dmitri Emanuel, and transfer Jacob Rizzy enrolled from Harvard over the summer and could be a nice surprise in the fall. Atkins' suspension for the first three games could affect whether the team rotates, but given last season's success, the team is worth sticking around for.
4. Florida State will win double digits this season.
While the schedule deserves more attention, Florida State still starts the season in favor of a playoff berth.
The trips to Miami and Notre Dame will be especially tough as Coach Norvell is looking for his first win against the Irish, but these teams have a tendency to lose close games in recent years, and FSU should win at least one of these matchups. The Seminoles, who beat Clemson last season, once again enter this year's matchup as the favorite on paper, this time with a series win and confidence within the Doak. From the overseas trip to Friday and Monday's matchups, there will be plenty of opportunities and obstacles for the unexpected underdog to pull off a win, but Coach Mike Norvell's culture should prevail. The past two seasons have solidified the team's resolve and approach, from players to coaches. Now is their chance to turn this tendency into proven, consistent success.
2024 Florida State Football Schedule
August 24vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
- Time: 12pm EST (5pm IST)
- Network: ESPN
Monday, September 2vs. Boston College Eagles, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Time: 7:30pm ET
- Network: ESPN
September 14: vs. Memphis Tigers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Time: 12pm ET
- Network: ESPN
September 21vs. California Golden Bears, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
September 28 : SMU Mustangs, Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
October 5vs. Clemson Tigers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Friday, October 18Duke Blue Devils, Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
- Time: 7pm ET
- Network: ESPN2
October 26: Miami Hurricanes, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
November 2vs. North Carolina Tar Heels, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
November 9: Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Indiana
- Time: 7:30pm ET
- Network: NBC, Peacock
November 23vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
November 30vs. Florida Gators, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
