-
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Senior Writer
The first round of last year's NBA playoffs featured four seeding upsets, the most in any season since the league adopted its current 16-team format in 1984. Which team is most likely to follow in those footsteps this year?
Historically, last season was an outlier. There were no first-round seeding upsets in 2022, and there were only two total from 2019 to 2022. But the same factors that led to a rocky season opener a year ago may be at play again.
With the East's compact standings aside from the top-seeded Boston Celtics, all three other first-round matchups will be against teams that were separated by no more than three games during the regular season. Only the 4-5 matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers in the West Division meets this criteria, but in reality, the sixth-seeded Phoenix Suns have star talent and playoff experience. This gives them an advantage over the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves.
My upset chance model is based on three historically predicted factors. That's regular season performance (as measured by net rating), roster quality (based on SCHOENE's projections and my projections of first-round playing time), and pre-playoffs. Title odds at ESPN BET. Let's look at this year's upset potential through that prism.
