NBA superstars will earn more than $100 million a year within 10 years

NBA

by Ryan Glaspiegel

The rapid increase in NBA TV contracts will eventually result in star players signing contracts totaling more than $500 million.

ESPN and ABC, owned by Disney, and TNT, owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, are collectively paying an average of $2.6 billion annually under their current NBA rights deals, and that amount is expected to more than double.

Player contracts will ultimately be guided by the league's collective bargaining agreement (CBA), which requires players to receive about half of their earnings.

ESPN NBA analyst and former Nets assistant GM Bobby Marks told the Post that current projections are for the first $100 million-a-year contract to materialize around 2032.

Although Marks cautioned that we won't end up in a situation like the summer of 2016, when the cap suddenly shot up and the Warriors infamously had extra space to add Kevin Durant to an already stacked roster. , warned that this monster deal would total more than half. – Billions of dollars in spending are inevitable unless the CBA is completely reformed.

“The CBA has a provision that smooths out the salary cap to 10 percent annual raises. It's not like 2016, where the cap suddenly skyrocketed when TV revenue came in,” Marks said. Ta.

“There are provisions as to what happens if the television contract is doubled. One of the provisions is that the players union has the right to negotiate new language on how that money is phased in. It is to cause.

“If you think about it, it's probably unrealistic that we're going to see a $100 million player within the next five or six years.”

Marks said it's expected to rise about 3.7% this offseason, and should rise about 10% annually from there after factoring in new television contracts and smoothing provisions.

“If you take that into account, we're going to reach a $100 million-a-year player in the 2032-33 season. Maybe a little sooner, but I don't think it's going to happen within the next five years,” he said.

Marks projects the cap will be around $141 million next year, rising to more than $300 million by 2032.

He likened the NBA's tradition of setting new salary records to a game of “follow the leader.” Jaylen Brown signed a record five-year contract with the Celtics last offseason worth $288 million.

According to Marks' projections, Jayson Tatum will be eligible for a five-year contract worth $315 million this offseason, and Luka Doncic will be eligible for a five-year contract worth $347 million next year. He says he has the qualifications to tie the knot.

With players like Tatum, Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembaneyama signing stratospheric contracts, young stars will reap the benefits.

As the numbers begin to approach and exceed $500 million, and superstar pay increases like an oligarchy, the shock will become evident.

“The reality is that everything is a percentage of the salary cap, so that amount is much larger than, say, what Allen Iverson was making at the peak in 2000. But the percentage of the salary cap is still the same. ” said Marks.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that ESPN alone will pay about $2.6 billion to keep most of its rights, including the NBA Finals, while Comcast-owned NBC is bidding $2.5 billion for the current TNT package. It was reported that.

WBD has equivalent rights and may retain the package, but wherever those rights land, it will cost about twice as much as the previous TV deal.

And this doesn't take Amazon into account. Amazon's financial spending is currently unknown, as The Athletic reported last week that the company has a “framework” for a deal with the NBA.

The current NBA CBA runs through the 2029-30 season, with both sides having the option to end it a year early.

Regardless of how that changes, with so much money coming into the sport through television contracts, it's impossible to imagine player pay rates dropping anytime soon.