Yesterday, I primarily set out the updated NBA pre-postseason player tier table before revealing Tier 3 (players between 24th and 42nd) and Tier 4 (43rd to 80th). I focused on doing that.
Today we'll go into a little more detail about some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, and highlight some overall trends.
First, consistent feedback (that I've gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4) is which players are more valuable: elite role players and good but not so great role players. It is always difficult to assess whether there is. -A good primary or secondary creator. Senior analysts within the league went so far as to say that they generally prefer Tier 4A as a whole, which is primarily made up of elite role players and connectors, to Tier 3B, which is made up of players who are on the verge of All-Star selection.
I don't think there's a surefire way to resolve this debate, and on some level, the decision between, say, Mikal Bridges and Jaylen Brown on one side is more about their respective rosters than it is about individual players. I think it's a function of the rest. . In this particular comparison, I think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that both would be better if the Celtics and Nets were swapped.
NBA player tiers: '20 | '21 | '22 | 'twenty three: T5 | T4 | T3 | T2 | T1 | 'twenty four: T3&4
In some ways, this is actually an extension of the long-simmering problem of how to evaluate sub-elite, but still very good, on-ball players. While there is nothing more valuable in the league than elite shot-making, and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot-making, at least to my way of thinking, it is extremely difficult to find the importance and desirability of players in between. is difficult.
Somehow it's an important part of the roster to recognize that there's a pretty big gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and a pretty big gap between Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell. This is also the reason why we do this exercise in the first place. evaluation. In other words, avoid cheapening the term “franchise player.”
Another teammate that exemplifies this dichotomy is Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I didn't think Banchero was particularly worthy of being an All-Star this year. According to Basketball Reference, only eight players have scored at least 100 fewer points than their equivalent scoring attempts at league-average efficiency through April 10 games, and Banchero ranks seventh on that list. . But in a way, this is a result of the lack of other creators in Orlando. In my simple shot quality model, his expected eFG% of 50.2 percent puts him 24th lowest among his 162 players who have attempted at least 500 tracking shots this season.
But looking back, the players with the strictest shot diets at No. 21, No. 22, and No. 23 are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Tatum, all of whom had an expected shot value of 209 (SGA , 3rd out of 162), 73 (Edwards 45th), and 151 points (Tatum 13th), but Banchero basically shot at the level of shot quality (-3 points, 162 124th out of points). Should he at least be recognized for being able to absorb possession and helping keep Orlando's offense afloat? How would he perform if there was more creative guard play around him? I'm not entirely sure, but that's why Banchero is a difficult player to evaluate. is.
Wagner, on the other hand, doesn't have Banchero's ability to create himself, but he is better in most other areas, including more efficient scoring, better defensive versatility, and off-ball play, making him a very plug-and-play player. It will be. – Fill an additional role on a team that already has a key creative role.
Next, there are some notable players who could have been higher up had they updated their tiers around mid-season. Tyrese Haliburton is one of them. He was outstanding this year, worthy of being an All-Star, and was the driving force behind Indiana's potent offense. However, the second half of this year was not as good as the first half. That could be due to a lingering injury slowing him down, defenses starting to understand him, or perhaps a combination of both. This, combined with my uncertainty about how well his style would translate to the playoffs, meant I had him at the bottom of Tier 2 for much of the season, even though I dropped him to tier 3.
Damian Lillard is another player who has dropped one spot throughout the season. At the beginning of the year, it was easy to give him a certain pass based on both his adjustment to a new team and role, and the coaching turmoil that plagued the Bucks in the first stages of the season. But he showed some of his former dominance with fits and starts, including 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists on Wednesday to lead the Bucks past the Magic despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's absence. However, their performance was poor. The exception rather than the rule. In his final four seasons in Portland, Lillard posted a 62.1 true shooting percentage against a 31.4 usage rate. With Milwaukee, his efficiency dropped to 59.3 TS on 28.4 usage, the least efficient in a full season compared to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a big question mark defensively, his decline at the age of 33 is concerning.
Of course, he could hit the ball hard in the playoffs, drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference Finals and even the NBA Finals, and prove he still belongs in the top-20 discussion.
Speaking of the playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there were several players who struggled to make it to the playoffs, with Tatum, Doncic, and Joel Embiid being prime examples. All three have a great chance heading into this year's postseason, with Doncic in particular looking to be in great shape. The midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks' newfound ability to consistently match Doncic's creative proficiency with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded by shooting points to something special. It looks like something has been released.
On the other hand, there are some players whose playoff greatness I already more or less guess based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray didn't necessarily have banner regular seasons, but both have a track record of dominating in the playoffs.
I'm a little shaky, but I don't know what to do with Ja Morant, so I'm going to basically treat this year as a gap year, although I'll admit he's got some extra oversight next year.
Finally, let's talk about the big French guy in the room. Tier 2B's Victor Wembanyama is one of the top 14 players in the league. I don't think he was at an All-NBA level the entire season, but he's good enough for a rookie and has shown improvement throughout the year, suggesting to me that he'll start on a strong team next season. are doing. Opportunity for all-league honors.
This growth is especially evident when comparing the transition to starting center instead of power forward in early December and the selection of Tre Jones as the starter in early January to pair Wembaneyama with a capable point guard. is.
In the former, he has since been a top-five rim protector in the league, with a similar profile to Brook Lopez during that time. Meanwhile, before Jones became the starter, Wembaneyama only had a true shooting percentage of 53.3 (29.9 usage rate), but since then, that mark has jumped to 58.5 TS% with a usage rate of 33.7, and his assist rate is close to 50 percent. Improved. And his 3-point shooting is still a work in progress.
Of course, these numbers don't even remotely tell the whole story about Wenby, as evidenced by the almost nightly parade of “Wait, what did he do?!” highlight. He won't have the chance to prove himself in this year's playoffs, but he's done everything that was expected of him, so if he can avoid injuries, it seems almost inevitable that he'll be knocking on the Tier 1 door soon. is. And more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photo: Michael Gonzalez, Garrett Elwood, Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty)
