The NBA is close to finalizing a new 10-year media rights deal with Disney, Amazon, and the winner of the Warner Bros. Discovery-NBC battle royal. NBC is the favorite, per sources.
The league plans to generate around $7 billion annually between the three partners. But unlike when networks signed up for 10 more years for the NFL, for $100 billion in 2018, there’s reasonable skepticism about whether the NBA is worth the $70 billion it’s likely to secure.
Here are three points to consider:
- Four of the five lowest-rated NBA Finals of the past 30 years have occurred in the past four years. (11.64 million viewers in 2023, 12.4 million in 2022, 9.91 million in 2021, and 7.45 million in 2020.)
- The NBA averaged just 1.56 million viewers across ABC, ESPN, and TNT this past season.
- The NBA has lost 45% of its audience since 2012.
The league is in decline.
This season's NBA playoffs averaged 3.77 million viewers through the two rounds, down from 4.25 million last season. That's an 11 percent decrease.
The website tried to tout the ratings favorably, noting that the postseason was “the second most-watched two rounds of the past decade.” Although accurate, this statement is misleading.
Nielsen began measuring out-of-home (OOH) TV viewership in 2020 by counting viewers in bars, restaurants, and casinos. However, OOH viewing did not have much impact on viewership until around 2022 after Covid restrictions were lifted.
So, of course, ratings for the NBA (and most other sports) are up compared to pre-2020, when Nielsen only calculated viewers watching at home.
Bottom line: NBA playoff ratings should be at least a minor concern for networks that are investing billions in the league's future.
That said, we discussed in February how the NBA lacked the “future face of the league” to replace LeBron James, who turns 40 in December. The best players at the time of this article, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, lacked the playing style and personality to fit their roles.
Next came Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves guard has the personality and Jordanian flavor to his game to become a mainstream figure in the NBA. He has a better 3-point shot than Kobe Bryant.
He is black too.
Skin color matters in the NBA. Black players and members of the media will never accept Jokic and Luka as the faces of the NBA. The hostility towards the two is obvious and ugly.
Additionally, Edwards is only 22 years old. He's already in the Western Conference Finals, and his team is favorites to surpass the Mavericks.
If this was the final game between Anthony Edwards and the Boston Celtics, it would definitely turn the NBA around.
No other sport's popularity is more dependent on star players than the NBA. If Edwards can establish himself as a star player, his success in the NBA over the next 10 years will accelerate.
Hopefully he doesn't get involved in politics. Part of the NBA's decline is due to product polarization around 2016, led by LeBron James.
Let's see if Edwards can turn around the postseason ratings. Current and future NBA partners hope he can make that happen.