The 2024 NBA postseason has begun and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily player picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will pick at least once in every game between now and the NBA Finals.
So far this postseason, 10 of the first 14 games have been below the pregame point total. Granted, the Celtics and Heat topped this line in Game 1, but remember Boston made 22 3-pointers. This tied a franchise record. Assuming some downward regression, one game's worth of adjustments, and Miami's significant lack of shot creativity at the moment due to injuries, I'd take the under here as well. Pick: 203 and under
There's one player I expect to have a decent offensive game in this matchup, and that's Duncan Robinson. The handoff game with Bam Adebayo is probably Miami's cleanest form of offense without Jimmy Butler. He played just 15 minutes in Game 1, but is suffering from back pain. The offense is at a premium right now for the Heat, so I'm hoping they get even more time in Game 2 to give them a little more space on the floor. Designated player: Robinson with 6.5 points or more
The total is relatively high here compared to what actually happened in Game 1, but I'm relying on the defense because that's mainly what the coach did. Oklahoma City played 11 players, but the most used reserve was defensive ace Kayson Wallace, who played a big role in the fourth quarter. Jonas Valanciunas was very good in this game, especially on the boards, but defensive specialist Larry Nance Jr. closed out the game at center. Coaches tend to rely on defense in their playoff lineup selections to start the series and only rely on offensive matchups if they prove necessary. The players that stood out in Game 1 were Herb Jones and Lou Dort. I expect defense to be a hallmark of this series. Pick: Less than 210.5
I'm more interested in the 20 minutes Josh Guidi played than the two goals he scored in Game 1. Secondary ball handling and transition playmaking are great skills in the regular season. In a playoff setting, a team's best ball-handlers simply hold onto the ball more than they would in a lower stakes game, and they lose a lot of value. Giddy is bad at shooting. He's an under-the-radar defender. Mark Daigneault can improve either area of the floor fairly easily by running the offense with Isaiah Joe or the defense with Wallace. Guidi is not a playoff player. His scoring ability is declining. Pick: Giddy under 9.5 points
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