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Andre Snellings, ESPN
The Western Conference playoff race is fierce at the bottom, with eight teams legally competing for the final five playoff spots with 10 games left in the season. It's a giant game of musical chairs where the three teams are eliminated when the music stops.
From a future perspective, the hot race is not just who makes or loses the playoffs, but also who makes the playoffs. The Rockets have won nine straight games and are within a game of the Warriors for the 10th and final play-in spot. Meanwhile, teams like the Clippers, once considered championship favorites, are in danger of slipping into the play-ins and missing the playoffs altogether.
Let's take a closer look at all eight teams. And let's take a look at whether their best future value is making the playoffs, making the play-ins, or missing the playoffs altogether.
LA Clippers: +1200 to participate in Western Conference Play-In Tournament
From the beginning of December until the All-Star break in late February, Kawhi Leonard's Clippers were arguably the best team in the NBA. During that time, they went 25-5 with a +8.8 PPG point differential with Kawhi on the court, both of which would have given the then-Celtics a run for the top spot in the league if applied to the season. If the Clippers continued at this pace, they had a good chance of clinching the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
The main question at the time was health. Leonard and Paul George both had long injury absences, and both were available for most games at the time. The good news is that both have remained mostly healthy and available in the game since then. The bad news is that the Clippers have fallen into a slump despite having the best players on the court.
The Clippers are 9-11 with a -2.9 PPG differential in their last 20 games, with Leonard appearing in 18 of those 20 games and George playing in 17. Their biggest problem isn't their health, but their shocking lack of defense. In the last 20 games, the Clippers have allowed 114.6 ppg (below the league average of 114.5 ppg) compared to the 112.3 ppg they allowed to opponents in their first 51 games. Their defensive rating fell to 19th in the NBA (116.2 points per 100 possessions).
The good news for the Clippers, who hope to make the playoffs, is that they have a huge lead in the Pacific Division race and still have a chance to hold on. They have a 2.5-game lead over both the Kings and Suns with 11 games left, and a division championship would automatically advance them to the playoffs.
That being said, the Clippers still have three games left against these two teams, and the Kings in particular have been playing much better than the Clips of late. The Kings and Suns are currently in play-in range, so if either of them passes the Clippers, the Clips will likely be in play-in range themselves.
In other words, the Kings are 8-4 in their last 12 games, the Suns are 7-5 and the Clippers are 5-7. If all three teams play at the same pace for the rest of the season, the chances of one or both of the Kings and Suns overtaking the Clippers and forcing them into the play-in are much higher than 12-1. So I think the Clippers are worth a solid long shot of +1200 to get into the play-ins.
New Orleans Pelicans: -3500 for playoffs, -110 for Southwest Division, +1000 for playoffs, +260 for play-in participation.
Dallas Mavericks: -2500 for playoffs, -110 for Southwest Division, +800 for playoffs, +240 for play-in participation.
The Pelicans have won nine of their past 12 games to move into the fifth seed in the Western Conference and still hold a narrow lead in the Southwest Division. But the Mavericks are hot as fish right now (Mark Jones shoutout), winning five games in a row, nine of their last 10, and still one game back.
The Pelicans have a two-game lead over both the seventh-seeded Kings and eighth-seeded Suns, with all three teams having 10 games remaining. According to Basketball Power Index (BPI), all three teams have very tough schedules, with the Suns being the most difficult (schedule strength of 0.363 BPI, predicted average team win percentage against schedule is 36.3), and the Kings fourth. (0.444 BPI SoS), while the Pelicans are fifth hardest (0.455 BPI SoS). The Mavericks have an easier remaining schedule than their competitors, ranking 14th in BPI SoS at 0.494.
Additionally, the Pelicans will be without star Brandon Ingram for most of the rest of the season due to a bone bruise in his knee. In the three games since Ingram went down, the Pelicans' only win has been against the lottery-bound Pistons, 1-2. The Mavs are healthy, Luka Doncic is playing MVP-level ball, Kyrie Irving has stepped up at an All-NBA level (including his iconic left hook buzzer-beater from 18 feet over Nikola Jokic), and The newly traded big man brings stability. Whether it's defense or the glass.
I think there is good value for the Pelicans to be in the play-ins at +260, but I think there is better value for the Pelicans to miss the playoffs at +1000. If they take a big late slide and miss the play-in, the odds of them losing two more games to a motivated playoff-caliber contender in the play-in are better than 4-1.
The Mavericks are now a mirror image of the Pelicans. I think it's relatively unlikely the Mavericks slip up late, but the possibility of an injury would change everything. With that in mind, I'm neutral on whether the Mavericks make the play-ins or miss the playoffs at +240 and +800, respectively. I think the Mavs are worth Southwest at -110.
Sacramento Kings: -280 to make playoffs, +210 to make playoffs, +1400 to win Pacific Division, -275 to participate in play-ins.
Phoenix Suns: Playoffs -260, playoff loss +200, Pacific Division championship +2000, play-in participation -550
The Kings and Suns currently have nearly identical futures profiles, have the same record in the same division, and currently sit in the top two play-in seeds. Both have tough schedules remaining, but the Suns are tougher. Both teams are generally playing better than the Clippers, but they are 2.5 games behind the Clippers in the Pacific Division. The Clippers are 2-1 against the Kings (with one head-to-head game left) and 2-0 against the Suns (with two H2H games left), both games in the season series. has an advantage.
Neither team makes the playoffs or participates in the play-ins very often. I see both bets as having some value for both teams, as both teams have positive paydays to miss the playoffs altogether and aspirational odds to win the Pacific Division. But I think the Suns are worth +200 after missing the playoffs. That's because the Suns have the toughest regular season schedule in the NBA and are likely to stay in the play-in slot. And if that happens, the Suns will have a losing record against the team they are most likely to face this season. They are currently 2-2 against the seventh-seeded Kings, with one game remaining in H2H in Sacramento, and the Kings have outscored them by 16 points in the series so far. The Suns are currently 2-3 against the 9th-seeded Lakers. The Kings are 4-0 against the Lakers, averaging 10.8 PPG in wins, so they would have a good chance to make the playoffs if their current seeding is real.
Considering the remaining schedule and the relative level that the Kings and Clippers are currently playing, I think the odds of the Kings beating the Clippers are much shorter than 14-1 and probably closer to 3-4-1. Masu. Therefore, I think the Kings have a good chance of beating Pacific at +1400.
Los Angeles Lakers: -125 in playoffs, -105 in playoffs, -1600 in play-ins.
The Lakers are almost guaranteed a spot in the play-ins. They are in ninth place, three games behind the sixth-seeded Mavericks and 3.5 games behind the 11th-seeded Rockets with 10 games remaining. If they finish extremely hot, they could overtake the Kings and Suns, both teams trailing by two games. In the most likely scenario, they sit in 8th or 9th place, right in the middle of the play-ins, and at -1600 they have no juice.
The more interesting question is whether the Lakers are more likely to make the playoffs or miss out, and the prize odds are about even in either direction. They are playing well right now, winning six of their last eight games and winning all eight games against teams currently scheduled to play in the postseason. The rest of the Lakers' schedule is a little easier, with a BPI SoS of 0.510, 16th in the NBA. But play-ins are all about matchups, and the Lakers have had varying degrees of success against their expected opponents.
The Lakers, like the Nuggets (the Lakers also have a double-digit average point difference and no wins), have 0 wins and 4 losses against the Kings, with a PPG point difference of -10.8, and their offense revolves around a center that can do everything. are doing. It turned out that Anthony Davis was too fit to slow down. The Lakers are 3-2 against the Clippers, 2-1 against the Pelicans, 1-2 against the Mavericks, 3-2 against the Suns, and 1-2 against the Warriors. ing. If the Lakers can advance to the No. 8 seed and the Kings can sneak into the No. 6 seed, the Lakers would have a good chance of winning 7-8 and clinching the No. 7 seed. However, if the Kings stay in the play-ins and the Lakers remain in ninth place, the Lakers may have a very tough road ahead as they will have to defeat two teams with current losing records to make the playoffs. unknown.
I'm leaning towards the Lakers making the playoffs, and the BPI odds for the Lakers making the playoffs are 52.1%. This is as close to a bet as you can get.
Golden State Warriors: +290 in playoffs, -450 out of playoffs, -3500 in playoffs.
Houston Rockets: +800 in playoffs, -2500 out of playoffs, +375 in playoffs.
I think the difference in odds between these two teams is interesting. The Rockets have won nine straight games and are within one game of the Warriors for the 10th seed and the final play-in spot. The Warriors have lost six of their last 10 games and seven of their last 12. they look vulnerable. Still, they are still the overwhelming favorites to participate in the play-ins. The Rockets, on the other hand, earn a lot of extra money just by appearing in the play-ins.
There's a good reason why the Warriors are favored to stop the Rockets. The Rockets' remaining schedule is even tougher, with a BPI SoS of 0.430, third-toughest in the NBA. The Warriors have a BPI SoS of 0.513, the 18th hardest. Although the Rocket's winning streak is impressive, only two of his wins came against teams with records above .500.
The Warriors also have a dramatic experience and star power advantage that could help them get through the next few weeks heading into the play-ins. The Warriors have already won the season series, and are 2-0 against the Rockets in H2H, with only one H2H game remaining. Additionally, Alperen Sengun, arguably the Rockets' best player, is out for the season with a knee injury.
That being said, Sengun's injury seems to have allowed Jaylen Green to blossom. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has given the Rockets momentum with an explosive performance of 30.7 PPG (50.0 FG%, 80.0 FT%), 7.1 RPG, 4.7 3PG, and 3.4 APG over the past seven games. And while their competition wasn't the strongest, they have dominated with an average point differential of +15.9 PPG during the seven games without Sengun.
That's why I see value in the Rockets entering the play-ins at +375. I agree that the Warriors have the advantage, but the Rockets are right around the corner and are playing at a very high level. If the Rockets can win their next matchup against the Warriors next week, this race is essentially a toss-up where the Rockets could reap a huge advantage.
