The Western Conference Finals begin Wednesday night in Minneapolis between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.
That matchup may have seemed unlikely before this season, but it's right around the corner. Mavericks beat writer Tim Cato and Timberwolves beat writer John Krawczynski discuss what to expect from this series once it begins.
Cato: John, for the sixth year in a row, the NBA will crown a new champion. It could be one of these two teams. It should be a thrilling series. It will be a series that will look nothing like any of the four regular season games these two teams played.
That usual starting point is of little use. Dallas lost twice in the regular season, but twice they used ghost lineups without Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. In the matchup with Doncic, they lost again without Irving. Dallas defeated Minnesota in early January, the only game in which both superstars appeared, but that win came before the trade deadline change. Minnesota's regular season game against the Denver Nuggets heightened the excitement for that series. The game against Dallas only created mystery.
Let's start with what we know: Doncic is the best offensive player remaining this postseason, and Minnesota's defense is absolutely ruthless. How will the Timberwolves suppress Dallas' offense?
Kraczynski: The Timberwolves have continued to play great defense in most of these playoffs as well as in the regular season. The Mavericks will certainly have a very different matchup than Denver. The Nuggets are running everything around center Nikola Jokic. The Wolves won this series because Karl-Anthony Towns did his best to mortally wound Jokic (sometimes more successfully than others) and the Wolves' perimeter defense erased Michael Porter Jr. That's because he held off Jamal Murray.
Even though Murray has proven to be a playoff killer, the Mavericks' backcourt is much more impressive. Doncic and Irving will put a lot of pressure on the Timberwolves' guards, and Minnesota is one of the best teams to handle it. I predict Jaden McDaniels to start with Doncic and Anthony Edwards with Irving. McDaniels has experience guarding Doncic, and he will look forward to the task. There are concerns about McDaniels' foul trouble and Edwards' fatigue, but this is the Western Conference finals. They can sleep in August. The Timberwolves also have Nickell Alexander Walker as a top option for Irving, but he may not be big enough to handle Doncic.
It will be interesting to see what the Timberwolves do if McDaniels is not Doncic's primary defender. Will Edwards just slip up? Will Kyle Anderson give Mavericks stars the same recognition he has in the past?
Whoever is there will likely rely on Rudy Gobert's help at the rim to make it even tougher on both Dallas guards. That approach worked against Phoenix and Denver, and I expect them to stick with it against the Mavericks as well.
Cato: The Mavericks scored more than 121 points per 100 possessions in their one regular season win against Minnesota. Doncic and Irving combined for 69 points. In the loss Doncic played, he scored 39 points. Doncic has struggled offensively throughout the postseason due to various ailments, most notably a sprained knee, but he looked more like himself in the shutout of the Oklahoma City Thunder in Games 5 and 6. . That's the kind of Doncic I'm hoping for in this series.
Doncic is the best player at identifying the opponent's drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. When the center sets a screen and Gobert drops, Doncic manipulates McDaniel and other defenders to create a two-on-one situation. He can take a floater and turn it into a lob pass at the last second, or coast gently backwards for a mid-range shot. McDaniels has forced Doncic into more turnovers than usual, certainly forcing the Mavericks star to score points, but he has never prevented Doncic from scoring. This drop in his coverage may not be possible for the entire series.
We know that these strategic impasses often revolve around the weakest players, not the strongest. Doncic loves embarrassingly fearless big men, but Gobert can protect himself better than most. Doncic would be wise to seek out Mike Conley just as often. I imagine Conley will guard Derrick Jones Jr. and leave him open for a few seconds until Doncic's primary defender scrambles back into position. If Jones wants to shoot pick-and-pop threes above the break, I'm sure Minnesota will allow it. If he wants to roll into the lane with Gobert still lurking there, do that. Still, it's incumbent upon Dallas to involve Jones often.
even deeper
Derrick Jones Jr. chose the Mavericks over the Celtics and has no regrets.
In Irving's one game against Minnesota this season, he was very aggressive against Conley. That's the matchup Dallas is going to create for him. Oklahoma City limited Irving's scoring ability by continually sending double teams at him. Irving said this was “probably” the toughest series he's ever played. What would it take for Minnesota to consider doing that against him or Doncic?
Kraczynski: The Timberwolves showed a willingness to adapt in these playoffs. Coach Chris Finch is not dogmatic about his approach, especially defensively.
Against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves changed up Jokic's coverage several times throughout the series, at times bringing in double teams up top, at other times bringing in double teams from up top, and at others from behind in hopes of limiting assists to the 3-point shooter. Sometimes I would go down and have them cook for me. This combination worked like magic against Denver. Minnesota held the Nuggets to under 90 points in three of seven games in the series and under 100 points in each of the four games they won.
If Doncic is still hurting the Timberwolves defense, chances are they'll double-team him and try to take the ball out of his hands. If that happens, they can only hope that P.J. Washington and Jones don't shoot 95 percent from 3-point range like they did against Oklahoma City.
Porter Jr.'s disappearance during the Nuggets series was a huge advantage for the Timberwolves. Partly because McDaniels locked him up, but also because Porter Jr. missed a lot of wide-open looks. If the Timberwolves double Doncic, Washington and Jones will also have a chance.
Cato: Meanwhile, Dallas has transformed into an exceptional defense. The turnovers are coming from three players. Derek Lively II was drafted after the team's terrible 2022-23 season. Jones, the last addition to the roster on a minimum contract. and Washington, acquired at the trade deadline.
Dallas earned the league's best defensive rating in the final 20 games of the regular season, but that was due to its suffocating rim protection. That continued with two wins in the playoff series. Dallas understood Oklahoma City's five-out offense. Either way, six games is enough to win. Chet Holmgren didn't have much on-ball dynamism in his first year and was reluctant to be a 3-point shooter.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on the Timberwolves offense and how it will attack Dallas, but I'd like to say this first. Although Towns is not the Timberwolves' primary option, I expect him to cause certain problems for this new team. Dallas' defense is unlike any team to date.
Kraczynski: At this point we can throw away the meaning of regular season games, as they all took place before the trade that dramatically changed the Mavericks' structure and swagger.
The Timberwolves' offense was mediocre during the regular season, but they found more rhythm in the playoffs. They scored at least 120 points in three of the four games against Phoenix, scored 115 points in Game 6 against the Nuggets in a 45-point victory, and scored enough points in the remaining three games to back up their formidable defense. I gave. The Nuggets won't cut corners on defense, but facing the Mavs' athleticism will be a big adjustment for the Timberwolves.
I think you're right that Towns is causing problems for the Mavs. Towns, who has been criticized for years for not being effective in key playoff moments, played very well against Phoenix and Denver. He's arguing with referees a lot less than he used to (hint, hint: Doncic), and he's staying calm on post-up opportunities and playing with the control he never had before. Towns' post-up was one of the best offenses the Wolves had in the series against Denver.
Do you think Mavericks coach Jason Kidd will use Washington against Edwards the same way he used him against Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the last series? If he plays like that, KAT will need to use his size and versatility to punish his opponents.
Cato: No, Jones should be the one protecting Edwards. He's a great point of attack defender and really bothered Gilgeous-Alexander last series. (Gilgeous-Alexander made 9 of 24 when Jones guarded him, as did every other Dallas defender he cooked on his way to a great series.) Edwards is stronger than him, but Jones is the best option Dallas has. Much like Doncic, Edwards is unstoppable. He just has to survive.
But Dallas needs Washington on Towns, so it's a necessary matchup. Of course, like any team, Dallas' rim protection starts at center. But the reason its defense has been one of the best in the league in recent months is because of the crowded paint and quick rotations Dallas has implemented. Towns' size, quick release and pump-fake driving counters can hurt teams that are constantly backing down against shooters. Washington is probably best suited to constantly collapse and recover.
Dallas must want Minnesota to run the pick-and-roll with Edwards and Gobert. The Mavericks are probably more afraid of mismatch hunting when Edwards throws Doncic and Irving's guys into the game. They can't switch them because Edwards is too fast. Doing so will leave Dallas' base rim defense intact, but they will have to be more careful in identifying the shooters they helped than they were in the Oklahoma City series. McDaniels certainly is, but Towns isn't.
These are snapshots of starters versus starters. Because of this support plan, the Dallas coaching staff may celebrate Anderson internally every time he plays. When Minnesota shifts to the Towns-Naz Reid duo, Dallas could bring Lively into the game right away — if they haven't already. The rookie center will have to guard on the perimeter this series, which he has excelled at this postseason. I expect Daniel Gafford to remain the starter, but I expect Lively to play far more minutes.
is there anything else?
Kraczynski: All the talk surrounding this matchup will be crucial to the outcome of this series. Want to know why I'm looking forward to this series? Luka vs. Ant. It's a matchup between a 25-year-old superstar and his 22-year-old player who is climbing up the player rankings.
Doncic is hitting hard, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up if it becomes a long series with no two-day break between games. But he's so tough and smart that it might not even matter how healthy he is. Doncic will be the kind of puzzle the Timberwolves couldn't solve with Jokic, but the Mavericks star feels like an even bigger challenge. That's because his wingman, Irving, is expected to be far more consistent and explosive than Murray, who is Jokic's Robin.
And then there's Edwards. This is a player who is in prime position to claim the title of best American-born player in the game. He was great against Denver, except for a Kobe Bryant-like 6-of-24 in Game 7. Edwards knows Doncic has had more success in the playoffs than he has. The only way for Edwards to change things is to shoot it right down the Mavericks' throats.
I think this is going to be a whale of a series. I can't wait.
Cato: Yeah, while I sometimes chat about the nuances of pick-and-roll coverage or explain how coaches see the game, I always remind myself to remember: It's about watching a superstar, talented in his own way, take on another superstar. We expect Doncic to be healthy or healthy enough to make it in time. I think Edwards would be a great foil for Doncic, and Doncic may be able to learn from how Edwards is driven by emotions and how to better manage them.
This is going to be high-level basketball, and it's going to be fun. See you in Minnesota.
(Top photo: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
