Follow our Olympics coverage in the run up to the Paris Games.
Want to hear a likely (but unlikely) scenario in which LeBron James comes off the bench for the U.S. national team?
It began last week when US coach Steve Kerr revealed that Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard were healthy and expected to be ready for Olympic training camp, which begins on Saturday in Las Vegas.
The 7-foot-4 Embiid, who picked the U.S. over France for the Paris Olympic team, is shooting nearly 40 percent from 3-point range, has nearly two blocks per game and is just one year removed from winning the NBA MVP award. Common sense, the eye test and other criteria suggest he should be the starter.
Same with Stephen Curry. He's never played in the Olympics like Embiid, but he's the greatest 3-point shooter of all time and the best deep shooter on the planet right now. His NBA-leading 357 3-pointers this season (next to Luka Doncic with 284) are proof of that. He's the ultimate floor spacer.
The third sure starter is Kevin Durant, a 6-foot-11, incredibly versatile two-way player and the most clutch player in U.S. basketball history. No player has been in more gold medal games, or more often, than Durant. He has averaged 29.5 points in four gold medal contests (three Olympic and one FIBA World Cup). Not only that, but Durant is the all-time leading scorer in U.S. men's basketball history with 640 total points (Olympic and FIBA).
Now, in this scenario, who would be the other two starters to surpass James, the NBA's all-time leading scorer and two-time Olympic gold medalist?
First up is Leonard, a 6-foot-7, intimidating player and one-time NBA Finals MVP. When healthy, he's both an efficient, high-scoring offensive player and a fearsome defender with vice-grip hands. If there's one reason the U.S. didn't win the FIBA World Cup in the Philippines last summer (there are more reasons, but hear me out), it's because German NBA player Andreas Obst made four 3-pointers and scored 24 points, despite Kerr's pre-game instructions to be careful with Obst. Leonard, who is agile enough to play No. 2 on defense and an intelligent defender, won't let that happen to his team.
The other is 6-foot-10 forward Anthony Davis, James' teammate on the Los Angeles Lakers. Another big disadvantage USA Basketball had last summer, and in the last few international tournaments, was size, a factor that was exploited in rebounding and defense in general. In their World Cup loss to Lithuania, the U.S. was outrebounded 43-27, gave up 17 second-chance points and 14 three-point shots (including nine straight to start the game). Overall, they allowed 100 points in all three World Cup losses, but it would be difficult to produce that kind of production in a 40-minute game with a team loaded with NBA talent.
Davis is one of the best defenders in the NBA, a dominant presence at the rim and rebounding, and an excellent scorer in the post. Put him next to Embiid against the likes of France (with Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama on the court), Serbia (Nikola Jokic, hello) or World Cup champions Germany, and the U.S. would immediately mitigate its size disadvantage with two of the best big men in the sport.
Finally, Leonard is a better perimeter defender than James and a more committed defender. Davis is taller and also a better defender. The U.S. already has enough offensive firepower on the court that one could argue that if Kerr bases his lineup decisions on the pitfalls of last year's team (only two players from that team, Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, made the Olympic team), James could be the sixth man.
nevertheless, thisJames coming off the bench probably isn't going to happen. I spoke with two USA Basketball sources, both of whom had serious doubts about the idea. So I appreciate the effort to undertake this exercise, and I hope Kerr and his staff realize they face a daunting task in selecting a starting lineup and providing playing time for a roster that features 12 stars.
“That's a great question,” Kerr said last week. “My staff and I have talked about it quite a bit, and I think it's a good question. But I expect all 12 guys on this roster will be Hall of Famers one day. So how do you pick five guys out of 12? It's about finding combinations that work, finding two-way lineups that work for both sides. So our big job in Las Vegas is to find that five-man combination and ask all 12 guys to be committed to the goal of winning a gold medal, no matter what the outcome is, no matter who's playing.”
Sources say James will likely start as the point forward for the U.S. and keep Curry off the ball. At 6’8”, he is one of the best passers of all time and led the NBA in assists in 2020. Despite being 39 years old, he averaged nearly 26 points per game for the Lakers last season and shot a career-best (for 21 years!) 41% from 3-point range. He’ll join an already unguardable starting five… even more unguardable? (Sorry, training camp for me too). He is the U.S. men’s all-time assist leader and is in the top 10 in points, steals, rebounds, Olympic 3-pointers and blocks.
Defensively, it's no secret that James allows himself to fade defensively. He tends to conserve his energy on that side of the court, at least in the middle months of a long NBA run with a full playoffs at the end. The short Olympic schedule will require more attention on that side of the court, but the international rules also work in his favor. He doesn't have to leave the paint and has enough weight to go toe-to-toe with the lumbering big men the U.S. will surely face. Most opponents won't have four 3-point shooters on the court at the same time, so James won't have to run to the perimeter as often.
A robust Team USA roster
player | NBA Teams | NBA regular season awards |
---|---|---|
Bam Adebayo |
5x All-Defensive |
|
Devin Booker |
Two-time All-NBA selection |
|
Stephen Curry |
Two-time MVP, 10-time All-NBA |
|
Anthony Davis |
Five-time All-NBA, five-time All-Defensive |
|
Kevin Durant |
2014 MVP, 11-time All-NBA |
|
Anthony Edwards |
2024 All-NBA |
|
Joel Embiid |
2023 MVP, 5-time All-NBA |
|
Tyrese Halliburton |
2024 All-NBA |
|
Jrue Holiday |
6x All-Defensive |
|
LeBron James |
4x MVP, 20x All-NBA, 6x All-Defensive |
|
Kawhi Leonard |
6x All-NBA, 2x Defensive Poison |
|
Jayson Tatum |
Four-time All-NBA selection |
Who will fill the fifth starting spot behind James? Leonard or Davis? Kerr prefers to play smaller players whenever possible, so Leonard might be a better choice than Davis, but there are six other very good players who will be asked to play significantly smaller roles than they've had in the past, even on the international stage.
Jrue Holiday was the second most important player for the US team at the Tokyo Olympics. One of the best defenders in the world from the guard position, Holiday made some incredible defensive plays and also played a pivotal role offensively alongside Durant in some very close games, most notably his three steals in a five-point win over France in the gold medal game.
Holiday's NBA team won the title in 2021, right before the Olympics, and it happened again this year, with the Boston Celtics winning last month. When James, Curry and Durant led the push to convince veteran American superstars to declare for the Paris tournament, Holiday wasn't in that group, but he was the envy of the USA Basketball staff for the considerable talent, grit and FIBA-friendly style he brings to the court. At 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds, Holiday can guard “up front” if needed, so in theory, Coach Kerr could have Holiday and Haliburton play together on the bench. Haliburton is one of the few players on the roster who doesn't need to score to be effective, and he is the fastest American. He can come off the bench and spearhead the U.S. offense by pushing the pace and getting the ball to open shooters, as he did last summer when he recorded 45 assists, the second-most in a World Cup by an American player.
But if Haliburton and Holiday are Kerr's backup guards, what about Devin Booker, the Tokyo Olympic gold medalist who averaged 27 points per game in the NBA last season? Or Edwards, USA Basketball's leading scorer last summer and who surely wants to make his mark on this team after a red-hot training camp performance?
There are two more gold medalists not mentioned here. Jayson Tatum, who signed a $314 million contract extension with the Celtics and won his first NBA championship, will likely play the same role he did as Durant's backup in Tokyo. Tatum was the second-leading scorer for the U.S. in 2021 with 15.2 points per game and made 17 three-pointers at the tournament. It's a bit surprising to see a three-time All-NBA first team selection not in the starting five, but as long as Durant keeps wearing the U.S. jersey, Tatum's presence is inevitable.
Another member returning from Tokyo is Bam Adebayo, an undersized center. He started all six games at the 2021 Olympics and led the team with an average of 5.7 rebounds per game. Adebayo is also one of the best defenders in the world, and his speed allows him to guard smaller players. However, with Embiid and Davis on the roster, it is unlikely that Adebayo will retain his starting spot. Kerr will likely secure minutes for him, and Embiid's playing time will certainly be limited to protect his knee, especially in pool games and friendlies before the Olympic Games begin. Adebayo can “fill in” there, but a player of Adebayo's caliber doesn't usually play in such a limited role.
Welcome to the strongest U.S. team, at least on paper, since the 1992 Dream Team, and the tough decisions that await Kerr starting Saturday.
(Top photo of LeBron James during the 2024 NBA Playoffs: Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)