• new Minnesota Vikings R.B. Aaron Jones He finished the 2023 season with a bang.: But recent trends haven't increased his average draft position one bit.
• Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens He's entering his third year as the team's undisputed WR1 and has great potential for fantasy football managers.He is currently being drafted as a WR3 at an average draft position outside of the top 24 wide receivers.
• check out PFF Fantasy Football RankingsPFF's fantasy football rankings include rankings from our experts, projections and strength of schedule metrics.
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
Over the last year, PFF has been the home of the majority of my fantasy football articles, featuring some of my most inspiring opinions and boldest predictions. Now, it's time to share some bittersweet news: this will be my final article for PFF Fantasy as I prepare to pursue the next opportunity in my career (more on that in a moment!). However, I'm not leaving the team with any bang, so as a parting gift, I'd like to present to you my seven “must draft” fantasy players for the 2024 season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) data provided by FantasyPros.
QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Current ADP: QB11 (Round 8)
It's not often that fantasy football managers find an opportunity to draft a quarterback with top-five potential in the eighth round or later of the draft, but this is one of those times. Jayden Daniels That's a man.
It's no secret that rushing potential has become a common theme among the league's top fantasy scorers. After all, fantasy football's QB1 has recorded 500+ rushing yards in four of the past five seasons. Now, it's hard to consider five starting quarterbacks with more rushing potential than Daniels, even as a rookie.Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardsonso what…? ) What these quarterbacks have in common, besides their rushing dominance, is the fact that, on average, they were all selected in the top four rounds of the draft.
In 2023, Daniels was the only quarterback in college football to record a PFF passing grade (92.0) and rushing grade (92.4) above 90.0. He ranked second among all quarterbacks with 1,301 yards rushing and added 10 more rushing touchdowns on top of the 40 he threw for, complementing an 8.4% big-time throw rate and 1.7% turnover-worthy play rate that ranked bottom-12th in the league. No player offers more value than the potential Daniels could bring to the table in Kliff Kingsbury's system, where he rushed for a career-high 819 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2020.
RB Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: RB28 (7th round)
Most fantasy managers have their eye on the second-year running back. Devon AchainI still see myself as supporting veterans. Raheem Mostertbarring any unexpected developments, his seventh-round ADP looks like an absolute bargain. The hype level for Acchane is well-deserved given his rushing grade of 93.1, which led all running backs. He also averaged a staggering 7.4 yards per carry and scored 49.3 points in Week 3, the highest-scoring RB fantasy performance of all of 2023.
But this fuss fails to acknowledge the many indications the Dolphins coaching staff has given that Mostert will return to the roster as a mainstay in 2024. Consider this:
- Despite the impressive performance of the then rookie Devon AchainThe Dolphins re-signed him. Raheem Mostert This offseason New two-year contract Equivalent to up to $9,075,000.
- Mostert, who led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2023, finished as the RB5 overall for the season, including four weekly top-five finishes. He ranked second in the league with a 91.7 PFF rushing grade and ranked in the top 10 in missed tackle rate (24%), yards after contact (3.3) and first down/touchdown rate (27%). Also It's pretty good.
- Head Coach Mike McDaniel himself Admitted Their backfield is “led by Raheem.” [Mostert]That's evident in the fact that Mostert carried the ball more than Acchane in key moments, especially inside the five-yard line, with Mostert carrying the ball 20 times to Acchane's five.
- While many will point to Mostert's health as a hindrance to a sustained workload heading into his age-32 season, he has missed fewer games over the past two seasons (three) than Acchane missed his rookie season alone (six).
To summarise, why draft Achane in the second round when you can draft Mostert in the seventh round?
RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Current ADP: RB19 (5th round)
Most fantasy football managers remember Aaron JonesLooking back at the 2023 season, they'll remember the disappointing season he had — he missed six games all year with hamstring and knee injuries and only had one top-five finish in Week 1 — but they might be forgetting the hot finish Jones had after finally getting healthy and finishing in top form from Week 15 through the postseason.
In those six games, Jones led all running backs with a rushing grade of 90.9, averaged 5.5 yards per rushing attempt, and recorded an astounding 120 scrimmage yards per game (fourth-most). His first down/touchdown rate of 32.8% was tops among all running backs with 50-plus carries in that span, and he also ranked in the top five with 3.8 yards after contact per attempt and a 25% forced tackle missed rate. So, Jones is certainly do not have Even as he enters his age-29 season, competition for touches in the Vikings backfield is limited.Ty Chandler, Kene Nwanwu), Jones could end up shouldering a significant workload well beyond his fifth-round ADP.
RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
Current ADP: RB25 (Rounds 6 to 7)
If you've been following my work for any length of time, you'll know that I Zack Moss From the final year UtahHe was dominant in 2019, posting a rushing grade of 91.5 on the year and ranking first in the class in key metrics like missed tackle rate (38 percent) and yards after contact per attempt (4.4). Buffalo BillsBut he Indianapolis Colts A superstar injury gave him his first real chance to lead the backfield via trade. Jonathan Taylor.
In the four games Taylor missed, Moss totaled 562 yards rushing and three touchdowns, plus another 128 yards and two scores on passes, which led to him signing a two-year, $8 million contract with the Bengals in the offseason and suddenly finding himself the leader of the league's most productive offense.
Even if I go back to the second year Chase Brown He showed flashes of impressive flashes as a rookie, but he never played more than 18 offensive snaps in a game and didn't get much work in the most important areas of the field, only getting seven total carries in the red zone. Joe MixonHe didn't have a single carry inside the 59-yard line (Mixon had 21).Joe Mixon” type of role and see what type of volume he has above his current draft cost of RB25.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: WR28 (4th round)
Pittsburgh Steelers Wide receiver, former second-round draft pick George Pickens He enters 2024 with a chance for a true breakout season, but his ADP, 28th among wide receivers, doesn't reflect that at all.
Pickens has made a name for himself for flashy, jaw-dropping plays, with four of his five touchdowns in 2023 coming on plays of 40 yards or more, second-most in the league. Despite being tied for the 27th-most targets at his position, he has a penchant for the big play, ranking 16th in the league with 1,140 receiving yards and ranking in the top 10 in yards per target (10.96), yards per reception (18.1) and yards after the catch per reception (6.49).
Not only does Pickens have a chance to significantly increase his target share; Dionta JohnsonBut he's also paired with a starting quarterback who complements his skill set better than any he's played with in his career. Russell WilsonPickens, who ranked 10th in the league with a 99.3 receiving grade on targets of 20 or more yards, will now Russell Wilsonhad a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 92.3 passing rating last year, which ranked 11th among quarterbacks.
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP: WR17 (3rd round)
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans He has the highest average draft position of any player on my must-draft list, currently being selected as the 17th wide receiver in the third round, but still, there seems to be value there for a soon-to-be 31-year-old veteran who hasn't finished inside the top 15 in fantasy points per game since 2017.
Evans is as safe a fantasy asset as Hall of Famer Jerry. Rice He leads the league in the most consecutive seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving heading into 2024. His safety floor is just as exciting, as he has great potential as a priority target for the returning QB despite his age. Baker MayfieldEvans led all Buccaneers receivers with a 23.8% target rate on routes he ran in the 2023 season, and he also led the team in total targets, red zone targets and end zone targets.
What made the 2023 season special wasn't just the massive amount of opportunities Evans got in his first season with Mayfield at quarterback. He also utilized those opportunities extremely efficiently, ranking in the top 12 among wide receivers (25+ targets) with 2.31 yards per route run, 26.7 yards per reception and 43 explosive plays. Fantasy managers may be snubbed by Evans because of his age, but his play has never been based on athleticism, but rather on skill, refinement and strength of play, which should make for another rewarding year for fantasy managers.
TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
Current ADP: TE9 (7th round)
Dallas Cowboys Tight End Jake FergusonThe growing importance of fantasy works Sam Laporta or Trey McBrideBut his opportunity as the QB's primary target is not in doubt. Dak Prescott There is a possibility that he will make even greater strides in his third year.
Ferguson wasn't the most efficient tight end in the league last season — he was eighth in the league with a receiving grade of 76.6, 15th in fantasy points per route run and 13th in fantasy points per target — nothing to write home about despite finishing the year as the ninth-best TE — but what stood out was the number of high-value opportunities Ferguson had in the red zone and end zone.
Among tight ends, Ferguson is tied for third in red zone targets (24) and tied for second in end zone targets (9). While touchdowns are a stat that fluctuates wildly from year to year, Ferguson ranks sixth in the league with 50 offensive touchdowns and has assumed the role of de facto WR2 for an offense that led the league in both red zone plays (247) and goal line plays (68). Expect this high-powered offense to continue to make runs to the goal line. Dak Prescott, C.D. Lam And then there's “WR2” Ferguson, who neglected his run game in the offseason.
