If you're familiar with Magic: The Gathering (or the Pokémon Trading Card Game, My Little Pony Trading Card Game, or similar games), you know that sometimes the most effective thing you can do is shuffle your hand into a deck and draw brand new cards. You're starting from scratch and stepping into the unknown, but it can get you out of a tough situation.
We could see the Minnesota Wild shuffle their cards next week with Marco Rossi in the mix, as, regardless of the reason, the team has been perpetually rumored to be looking to sell their 2020 first-round draft pick despite him scoring 21 goals as a rookie.
Looking at teams reportedly interested — Calgary Flames, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Utah Hockey Club — not many have the bigger, more agile, younger players Minnesota is looking for. Could 6-foot-0 Joel Farabee, who scored a career-high 22 goals in his fifth season, fill that role for Minnesota? Would an NHLer like Montreal's Kirby Dach or Utah's Dylan Guenther even be within trade reach? We don't know.
As for prospects, there aren't many big, strong, fast players outside of Utah that Bill Guerin wants (well, that's probably a story for another time), so the Wild would likely need a draft pick if they needed to make a deal. Luckily, they all have them: Montreal (5th overall), Utah (6th), Ottawa (7th), Calgary (9th) and Philadelphia (12th) are all higher in the draft than Minnesota's 13th pick. Most of those teams also have extra picks in the first two rounds.
CGY: No. 28, No. 41, No. 62
Monday: No. 26, No. 57
OTT: Issues 25 and 39
PHI: No.51
UTA: No. 38, No. 49, No. 64/65 (via Florida Panthers)
Perhaps a combination of late first-round and second-round picks could be used to trade for Rossi, but let's focus on a pick in the top 12. If the Wild are able to deal Rossi to one of these teams, would it be worth shuffling their cards again and picking again? Do prospects in the 5-12 range have enough potential to sacrifice a 20-goal center?
First, let's look at who the Wild will select. Looking at seven prominent mock drafts*, Macklin Celebrini is the obvious No. 1 overall pick, with Artyom Levshunov being the near-unanimous No. 2. The next three players who are pretty much in agreement are 6'7″ defenseman Anton Shiryaev, future KHL star Ivan Demidov, and Power Center Cayden LindstromOf the seven mocks we looked at, Lindstrom was available at No. 5 overall four times, Demidov three times and Shiryaev once.
Bottom line, trading a player like Rossi for Demidov is 100% worth it. He recorded 60 points (23 goals) in 30 MHL games last year and is expected to play for SKA St. Petersburg next season. And while you never know what the contract situation will be with these top Russian prospects, it seems like Demidov is willing to opt out of his contract after next season and head to North America.
Things get more interesting if Lindstrom and Siraev are available at No. 5 overall. Both players have high-end tools, but Lindstrom (27 goals, 46 points in 32 games) hasn't dominated WHL scoring to the same extent as, say, Barkley Catton (54 goals, 116 points in 68 games). The Wild would certainly covet Siraev if he were available, and he was a 17-year-old defenseman in the KHL. But is he more than his 11 points in 63 games would suggest? It's not guaranteed.
But, hey, we're just nitpicking the up-and-comers. Guerin is going to push Rossi into fifth place overall – what if he can't and has to settle for somewhere in the sixth to twelfth range?
The top options for sixth, seventh, ninth and twelfth places are:
Defense Zeev Buium
Centre Berkley Catton
Defenseman Sam Dickinson
Center Consta Helenius
Centre Tiji Iginla
Winger Zayn Parekh
Winger Beckett Senneke
Which one would it make sense to target as a pick in a Rossi trade?
Immediately, it feels like a waste of time for Minnesota to trade Catton or Helenius for Rossi. A Rossi trade would at the very least be a meaningful opportunity to add a skill set the Wild organization is missing or acquire a better player than Rossi. good A trade needs both. No matter what obstacles Rossi faces, he has a 69% chance of becoming a star, according to the report. Hockey QuestIt has a level of defensive value that cannot be measured in these models.
It's fair to say Catton and Helenius haven't passed the initial test. Both centers are small (5'10″ and 5'11″, respectively) but powerful offensively. Catton sets himself apart with elite speed, while Helenius' two-way skills are nearly one-to-one similar to Rossi's. What are their ultimate strengths? Neither seems as likely to be a star player as Rossi was entering this season.
Iginla reached the 6-foot mark on the height chart, which is hockey's unofficial Not a small lineHe's a great offensive talent and one of the best young players in the draft, so he's worth keeping an eye on, but is he arguably better than Rossi? Hockey Quest He's somewhat unlikely to be a star (likely due to his six goals in last WHL season), but he's not going to be an immediate contributor or a fixture in the midfield either.
Senneke, who performed well in the playoffs, was considered a late starter in the draft with his 6'2″ frame and tons of skill. The big question is whether to believe his postseason numbers (10 goals, 22 points in 16 games) or his good-but-not-great regular season (27 goals, 68 points in 63 games). Judging from a larger sample size, it seems unlikely that Senneke will have a more valuable career than Rossi.
So what about the defense? Bouiam, Dickinson and Parekh all have promising futures, but do they bring something Minnesota doesn't have?
Faber is the poster child for the Wild's defensemen. They're not the biggest, strongest or most skilled, but they skate really well and can defend with their feet and their heads. Bouyum and Parekh are defensive prospects with outstanding numbers on Hockey Prospecting (73% and 84% star chances, respectively). That should help Minnesota, but they don't have the size the Wild are after.
Dickinson is 6'3″ but Minnesota could keep Rossi and get a big, promising defenseman with the 13th pick. Carter Jakemchuk is everything Minnesota's young defenseman is missing: very dynamic and a hard hitter. Either way, Bouiam, Dickinson and Parekh could fall to the Wild. Why give up Rossi when you could potentially get one of those guys anyway?
Well, maybe two lottery tickets are better than one, but Minnesota already has one lottery ticket and will likely select at least one of the players on this list. Sniper Cole YzermanThe Wild have Rossi, a center who has scored over 20 goals in the NHL and is still on an entry-level contract. If the Wild can't acquire a top-five player, their best bet would be to keep Rossi and acquire the next tier of player at 13th.
*Mock drafts used: McKeen's Draft Guide, The Athletic (Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler, staff), TSN's Craig Button, NHL.com (Adam Kimmelman, Mike Morreale)
