Is Kristaps Porzingis set to return to the NBA Finals?

It's been 32 days since Kristaps Porzingis last played for the Boston Celtics, and by the time Game 1 of the NBA Finals begins, it will have been 38 days since he limped off the court in Miami with a torn right calf in Game 4 of the first round.

Every time Boston's journey to the Finals is discussed, their playoff record is undercut by injuries to opponents. It's rarely acknowledged that starting center Porzingis, who is making nearly $30 million this season, has missed 70% of the playoffs.

It's clear why that hasn't been a major storyline: It hasn't held them back. Not at all.

Even without him on the court this season in the playoffs, Boston has performed like a championship contender, posting an offensive rating of 121 and a defensive rating of 108.8 during that time while outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions.

But despite their massive success, the Celtics aren't ignoring the fact that their Finals opponent will be very different and much more difficult than they've been in the past, and the Dallas Mavericks have some problems that their Eastern Conference rivals just can't match up to.

While most will point to the Mavericks' offensive prowess and the stress Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving cause in the pick-and-roll, it's really Dallas' physical defense and crisp weak-side rotations that have gotten them to this stage.

To face a defense as cohesive as the Mavs are showing at the moment, Boston needs as many offensive weapons — and counters — as they can get.

Porzingis has long been a Death Star for Boston's offense, and when he sets a screen for one of the opposing wings, it presents them with a veritable “pick your poison” scenario. The move creates a mismatch for the 7-foot-3 Porzingis to exploit in the post. After the two touch the ball briefly, Tatum or Brown makes a quick pass to the big man at the top of the arc, where he typically launches a 3-pointer, putting the opposing coaching staff in danger.

On Friday, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla gave a brief update on Porzingis' status following the team's practice.

“He's getting better,” Mazzulla said. “He's hitting shots, he's had some drills in practice, so he's progressing well and we're confident in where he is.”

When asked if that confidence was reflected in his timeline for a return to Game 1, Mazzulla didn't take the bait.

“No matter what day it is, I'm confident in where I am,” he added.

The Celtics need Porzingis in this game to win the title, which is why giving him enough time to recover was essential.

Boston had the advantage of having a starting-caliber big man in Al Horford who could fill in if necessary. Horford's playing time increased from 23.7 minutes per game entering the Miami series (when Boston was healthy) to 32.3 over the final 11 games, including two 40-minute stretches in the Eastern Finals against a much younger and more athletic Pacers group that was willing to squeeze Horford in isolation.

Jrue Holiday was one of the Celtics' most impactful players in the Eastern Finals and is eager to see his teammates back in action.

“KP is one of our best scorers,” Holiday said. “He's one of our best rim protectors. We all feel like he's mature enough that he'll be able to get back in shape when he comes back. And we're do We want KP back. We can't wait for him to come back and do his thing on the court.”

Holiday also noted Porzingis' defense, which ranked in the top five in the league in the paint during the regular season: Among all 39 players who have prevented at least 300 shots at the rim this year, Porzingis was fifth in efficiency allowed (52.1%), according to Second Spectrum tracking.

After Friday's practice in Boston, local reporters captured video of Porzingis going through his cool-down routine.

It was mostly stationary shooting from the perimeter that mimicked the catch-and-shoot opportunities that came from ball-screen actions with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

It's unclear how “ready” Porzingis is for the speed and full contact of the game, but the Celtics' medical staff did the right thing by keeping Porzingis out and not removing him prematurely.

Boston was 12-2 in the Eastern Conference and had never lost a series, so there was no benefit to him returning for the series against Indiana. They had to carefully weigh the risks and rewards. The extended rest and recovery period made it a no-brainer.

Lower leg injuries are the most serious and concerning for a player's availability. Teams competing in the playoffs rarely have the luxury of waiting for a full recovery. In most cases, injured stars feel pressured to get back to 100% and return before they are conditioned.

Looking back at some of the most famous championship-defining calf injuries, Kevin Durant found himself in a similar situation during the 2019 playoffs. Durant went down with a calf injury in Game 5 of the second-round series on May 8. After being sidelined for a month, he returned for Game 5 of the Finals on June 10.

Of course, that night Durant also ruptured his Achilles in the same leg where he strained his calf, and while it's impossible to prove that he would have been safer returning with a few more days off, it's something that will always be in the back of Durant's mind.

Golden State was in a tough spot heading into a trip to Toronto in the Finals, trailing 3-1, and Durant was eager to return, knowing his chances of a third straight championship were slipping away and that he would soon be shipping his talents off to Brooklyn again.

We'll never know if Durant would have been on the court if Golden State had led 3-1, but it's interesting to compare that to the situation Boston faces now, both in terms of the specific injuries and recovery time.

How long will it be between Durant injuring his calf and tearing his Achilles and returning for the playoffs? Thirty-two days. That's the same amount of time Porzingis missed except for the week Boston will be preparing for Game 1 next Thursday, June 6.

Still, every sign points in the right direction that Porzingis will be on the court at some point before the title is decided.

The team's optimism during practice certainly aligns with what Porzingis said on the X on Wednesday, when he posted in Latvian: “Thank you everyone for your support and empathy throughout the season. I'll be back soon. See you in the Finals and afterwards in the arena with my buddies.”

Along with hinting at a return to the Celtics lineup, the last sentence suggests he will accompany the Latvian national team from July 2-7 as they play in the Olympic qualifying tournament.

Will the Celtics have to go through an adjustment period after waiving Porzingis? Holiday doesn't seem to think so.

As he noted, the reason Boston built this depth was to prepare for a variety of matchups. and This is to insulate you in case of injury.

“Sometimes it goes back to the regular season,” Holiday said. “Sometimes Porzingis was out and Horford was in and vice versa. We literally went through that. We worked out every scenario beforehand, what could happen, what might happen. And it showed.”

As Holiday says, they've truly had the best of both worlds: According to lineup data from Cleaning The Glass, Boston played 2,285 total possessions with Horford on the court and Porzingis not during the regular season, and nearly the same number (2,282 possessions) with Porzingis playing and Horford not playing the other way around.

The Celtics know how to play with both big men, and they also have the ability to play together thanks to Porzingis' superior floor spacing.

The next few days will be big for Porzingis, as he will likely have more opportunities to complete extensive drills and contact work. Like any player in a month-long rehab, he will have to pass some checkpoints before Boston clears him.

When that time comes, he will automatically be the one who will have the biggest impact in the NBA Finals.