- A small number of countries are developing plans to deploy swarms of drones in warfare.
- Drones could be used to destroy air defenses or carry out mass attacks.
- Some experts want to limit this technology.
In an apocalyptic scenario where tensions between China and the United States escalate into conflict, the first hours of a war may seem like something out of a science fiction movie.
Thousands of unmanned aircraft operating in coordinated “swarms” could be deployed over China to gather targeting intelligence for U.S. heavy weapons.
This scenario is outlined in a recent document published by the US think tank RAND Corporation.
The autonomous drones will use AI to provide intelligence to U.S. officials searching for targets for precision missile strikes.
Although this scenario is speculative and far from official U.S. military doctrine, it is a glimpse into a plausible future, and one that other countries are also considering.
In China, Israel and Europe, military experts are developing plans for swarms of drones that could change the nature of conflicts.
A swarm of drones uses cutting-edge technology derived from studies of flocks of birds and schools of fish to coordinate movements across potentially vast areas.
These could allow militaries to not only monitor the enemy but also use them as weapons to launch large-scale coordinated bombing raids. However, work remains to identify its most effective uses.
“Swarms of drones can be useful in a wide range of military operations, from finding and destroying submarines to blowing up tanks and mopping up enemy air defenses,” said Zach Callenborn, an analyst specializing in unmanned aerial vehicles and weapons of mass destruction. ” he said.
Kellenborn is a top researcher at Looking Glass USA, a counter-drone consultancy, and is affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It's unclear exactly what missions drone swarms are best suited for, but the potential is huge,” he said. “The challenge is to differentiate between the parts where the swarm of drones is really important and the parts that are primarily his cool science fiction creations.”
The threat they pose to the military is so powerful that military experts are already working on ways to counter their capabilities.
Ukrainian supercharged drone combat
The invasion of Ukraine forever changed the way drones are used in war. Cheap aerial drones have been deployed in conflicts for everything from surveillance to bombing raids and even ordering enemy soldiers to surrender.
Drones have proven their worth both at sea and on land.
U.S. military planners are studying the conflict for clues about how to deploy drones in future wars.
“Western military personnel are all eager to understand and digest the insights gained from the Ukraine war,” said Rand Corp. analyst David Oshmanek.
“It sounds terrible when you hear it like this, but we don't often have the opportunity to learn from large-scale real-world battles,” he told BI.
Until recently, some military experts argued that drones were too easy to shoot down and were likely to be used only in wars between poor countries without the resources to fight back. .
But lessons from Ukraine, Oshmanek believes, will see drones appear in even larger conflicts involving the country's most powerful states.
Instead of deploying individual drones, each controlled by a single human operator, as in Ukraine, the United States could deploy swarms of drones that operate autonomously.
It could help the United States secure a key advantage early in a conflict with a major power like China, Oshmanek said.
“At the onset of a conflict with China, in hours rather than weeks or days, we can characterize what is happening on that battlefield, identify the targets of greatest interest, and We must find ways to engage with them to track down their targets and destroy them,” Ohmanek said.
China seeks to neutralize US war plans
For years, a problem has plagued U.S. military planners.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, the United States developed a tactic that combined satellite surveillance and precision-guided missiles to quickly destroy enemy command and air defense systems.
This tactic was deployed by the United States to devastating effect against Iraq in both 1991 and 2003. The United States destroyed Iraq's air defenses within hours, giving Iraq control of the battlefield and airspace.
China, which was rapidly increasing its economic and military power, took note of this and began hastening to increase its military power and refine its tactics.
Ochomanek said they are finding ways to move or hide air defense systems and other potential targets, making it difficult for the United States to find and destroy them. U.S. military analysts say he has also developed a technique to “dazzle” satellites to protect the locations of weapons and other important locations from satellites.
The United States was forced back to square one, trying to regain its advantage. And that's where drones could come into play, Oshmanek said.
Swarms of drones offer important advantages in identifying targets early in a conflict.
They can be deployed in such huge numbers that they overwhelm air defense systems. Once there, it will be able to relay live data to human operators who will use it to guide precision missile strikes.
Even though the US uses drones that are much more expensive than those in Ukraine, they are still very cheap compared to much military equipment such as fighter jets.
“For us, a swarm of drones will do what we need to do to get the information we need to effectively and efficiently apply the limited lethality we can generate in the opening hours and days of a war. “It looks like a powerful tool to do that,” Ohmanek said.
killer robot
But critics warn that swarms of drones could lead to a terrifying future.
Military experts envision a drone swarm program in which machines rely on humans as decision-makers before an actual attack takes place. The drone only provides information.
It wouldn't be a huge technological leap to empower drones to make these decisions themselves.
But the potential for crossing that moral line has sparked concern.
At the United Nations last year, several countries called for restrictions on the development and use of autonomous drones that can make life-or-death decisions.
The United States and China both opposed the plan, arguing that current restrictions on the use of any weapon to indiscriminately target civilians are sufficient to thwart the future of killer robots.
Analyst Kallenborn supports clearer regulation, arguing that swarms of drones could be considered weapons of mass destruction and should be banned.
A key issue, he said, is that technology can make mistakes. And because drones communicate with each other, one mistake can quickly spread and multiply.
“There should be restrictions on the use of autonomous armed drone swarms, especially those that target humans. We know that autonomous weapons are fallible. “The risk is multiplied by a thousand times,” Karenborn said.
“A sensor drone could misidentify a school bus as a tank and instruct 10 other drones to blow it up as well,” he said.
Oshmanek stressed that targeting drone swarms should still be determined by humans, and that AI only synthesizes data.
“As long as there is a communication link between the mesh and the human operator behind it, the humans will be left to assess for themselves how accurate the mesh is making the assessment,” he said.
fight against the crowd
Defense companies are not only developing plans to deploy swarms of drones, but also developing strategies to counter them.
Research is underway into using lasers or microwaves to remove them, but both approaches have their own drawbacks.
Another possibility, Oshmanek said, is that swarms of drones could be programmed to target swarms of other drones.
So far, no specific drug has been found to combat this swarm, he added. And despite concerns about their autonomy, they seem poised to play a central role in future wars.
