With six days until fall camp, I think we all need to take a deep breath about the current state of BYU football. I get it. The mood is down. BYU is coming off its second losing season in 20 years, and oddsmakers are currently projecting them at 4.5 wins this season. I have never seen or felt such diminished expectations for a BYU football season in my short 29 years of life, and maybe you feel the same way. But I think the disappointment of a terrible end to 2023 has made us too depressed heading into 2024. The reality BYU football currently faces is scary, but I don't think it's as bleak as it seems.
As I perused the X-feeds and message boards, I felt it was worth discussing in more detail four myths believed among BYU fans: Fasten your seatbelts, everyone: it's time for some BYU football therapy.
There's a big question mark at BYU's quarterback, make no mistake about it. But the position isn't as bad as you might think. BYU currently has four quarterbacks who have started football games at the FBS level, compared to only one last season. Jake Retzlaff struggled in 2023, but BYU's offense also improved from 4.5 yards per play to 5.0 yards per play with him at the helm. Now that he's had an offseason with John Beck, improved the offensive line, and has a chance to integrate with a fully returning group of receivers, it's only natural that he'll get even better.
Jerry Bohannon came into the program without much notice, but he led Baylor to a Big 12 title and has proven capable of winning P5 level football games if he can shake off the rust. Makey Hillstead was a true freshman at Utah State and received offers from Big 10, SEC and Big 12 schools through the portal. Their fourth QB, Treyson Bourget, had the highest transfer rating out of 247 and threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs in his final full appearance at WMU.
I'm not saying BYU's QB situation is great; I'm frustrated that they didn't land a single four-star recruit after consecutive NFL Draft picks; but let's be honest, BYU's recent QB success hasn't been due to quality recruits; Taysom Hill, Zach Wilson, and Jalen Hall were all three-star prospects who developed into legendary players at BYU. I'm not saying BYU has the next NFL QB on their roster, but they do have at least one QB who can lead them to a bowl game if the players around them perform.
Myth #2: “BYU isn't seeing increased recruiting in the Big-12.”
There seems to be a misconception that BYU recruiting hasn't seen the “Big 12 breakthrough” they were hoping for. While the average fan's definition of a “Big 12 breakthrough” is subjective and likely includes landing a four-star quarterback or two, BYU's recruiting has improved in virtually every objective metric at nearly every position.
There are two ways to track recruiting progress: average recruiting rating and competitive offers. I previously wrote an article detailing the huge strides made in both areas since signing day, and that momentum continues with the 2025 class. 247 represents a player who will end up rated 86 or higher as a P4 starting level player. BYU signed a total of five players rated 86 or higher in the 2020 and 2021 classes combined. The Cougars added eight such players in June. 73% of players signed so far in the 2025 class have a 247 rating of at least 86, compared to just over 21% of players signed from 2020-2022.
In terms of competitive offers, BYU signed 29 players without any competitive FBS offers from 2020-2022, compared to just three from 2023-2025. The average competitive FBS offers per player increased from three from 2020-2022 to eight from 2023-2025, while competitive P5 offers increased from one to four during that same time period.
The trait that BYU fans have most lamented during the Kalani Sitake era is the inconsistency. There have been great wins, but also some head-scratching losses. The way to improve consistency is to strengthen the program's mid-major. BYU has always been able to land a four-star LDS kid or two, but the past few seasons, BYU's roster was built around classes with average recruiting ratings of 82-83. This average puts BYU between Troy and Southern Miss. Since joining the Big 12, BYU's average has improved every season, going from 82.0 for the 2020 class to 85.9 for the 2024 class to 86.1 for the 2025 class. Whether that translates into six wins in 2024 remains to be seen, but the talent in the pipeline is better than ever.
Myth #3: “Kalani is not the right person for the job. He just does what the coordinator tells him to do.”
The first statement is a myth, but the second statement applies to almost every current college football coach. Dabo Sweeney was building college football's next great dynasty at Clemson before losing defensive coordinator Brent Venables to Oklahoma. Lincoln Riley made the playoffs three straight years at Oklahoma but nearly failed at USC due to abysmal performances from his defensive coordinator. Even Kyle Whittingham couldn't lead Utah to success in the Pac-12 until offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig returned. Kalani's tenure at BYU was no exception, but that doesn't mean he's not a good football coach.
BYU football is in better shape than the day he took over as head coach. Ten players have been selected in the NFL draft in the past four seasons, the most in any four season in 20 years. Kalani has done something the Broncos couldn't do twice: finish in the top 20 during the Independent era. I know the last thing anyone wants to hear after a blowout home loss is “love and learn,” but don't let that mantra fool you into thinking Kalani is a weak leader. Since taking over as head coach, he has fired program legend Ty Detmer and close friend Elisa Tuiaki. He has taken the program from four wins to a top 15 in just three years. If anyone has the guts to lead BYU into this uncharted territory, it's Kalani.
Myth #4: “BYU’s P4 transition is way behind schedule.”
Let’s be honest, this offseason will be very different if BYU plays in a bowl game in 2024. If Aidan Robbins gets the ball at the goal line against #14 Oklahoma, or BYU blows a three-point lead against #20 Oklahoma State, then BYU will be ahead of schedule in its transition to the Power 4. Instead, we lament what could have been and debate endlessly the merits of RPOs. But as time goes on, I’m more and more encouraged by BYU’s performance over the final two weeks of the season. To me, it shows that BYU isn’t as far away from competing with the top teams in the conference as we thought it would be.
This shows that what BYU needs is a reorganization, not a do-over. They need time, not a dismantling. Time to bring more talented freshmen into the program and develop them. Time to settle in new faces on the coaching staff and fill additional positions. Time to adjust to the rigors of life in a P4 football program.
BYU's football program is not at the level we want it to be right now, but I also think it's at the level most pundits expected it to be. I'm a guy with blue goggles, but the standard for moving to the Big 12 was one bowl game appearance in the first three years. BYU fell one game short in 2023. If all goes well, they can get there in 2024. Will they? I don't know. But the recruiting is better than it's ever been, the coaching staff has proven they can build a top 20 program, and the future of the football program is brighter than when Kalani took the helm. That's enough for me to be patient while BYU evolves in this new era.
