• Two rookie quarterbacks ranked in the top 12 at their positions in fantasy football.: both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels provide Fantasy Football From day one, your managerial position will change.
• Devon Achain will finish as RB3 (or lower).: Despite Acchane's incredibly efficient rookie season. Miami Dolphin He has made some moves that indicate he cannot tolerate the increased workload.
• Get an early start on fantasy football: Create a realistic live fantasy football draft with PFF's mock draft simulator Mock Draft Simulation to prepare for live draft!
Estimated reading time: 6 mins
With offseason practice in full swing and NFL roster depth starting to take shape, it's officially time for fantasy analysts around the world to plant their flags for the upcoming season.
Here are five of my boldest predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season.
Two rookie quarterbacks finish in the top 12 in fantasy rankings
The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders are hoping to land quarterbacks of the future in the draft, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, respectively, and fantasy managers willing to take a chance on them could be in for some great payoffs in Year 1.
Williams may have been drafted in the most ideal situation for a No. 1 pick in recent memory. Not only is he entering his rookie season with promising wide receiver Rome Odunze, whom the team drafted ninth overall, but he also has two of the league's best veterans in Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Williams' top three receivers each earned a receiving grade of 87.0 or higher in 2023 and averaged more than 2.20 yards per route run.
Tight end receiving options? Williams has that too! Not only will he play with Cole Kmet, who has a career-best receiving grade of 77.7 and ranks in the top seven among tight ends in both fantasy points per target and fantasy points per route run, Williams will also be joined by another solid veteran in Gerald Everett, another asset the team acquired this offseason.
As for Daniels, it's no secret that he has a huge upside in fantasy grades thanks to his ability as a rusher. He graduated from LSU with a 92.4 rushing grade entering the 2023 season, leading all NCAA quarterbacks, and totaling 1,301 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the year. He averaged 10.4 yards per carry and forced 0.72 missed tackles per attempt.
Daniels doesn't have the same upside as Williams, despite all the weapons he has, but with Terry McLaurin, former first-round draft pick Jahan Dotson (who has shown talent in his own right), ultra-athletic rookie tight end Ben Synnott and Austin Ekeler as a safety valve, Daniels still has the edge. Don't be surprised if he and Williams both end up QB1 as rookies.
Devon Achain will finish as RB3 or worse.
The Miami Dolphins selected Texas A&M prospect Atchane with the 84th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and he's off to an incredible start. He rushed for 813 yards on just 108 attempts and earned a PFF rushing grade of 93.1, the best among all running backs with at least 100 rushes. He led all running backs in yards per carry (7.5) and yards after contact (4.94) and finished third in missed tackles per attempt (0.28). So why pass on him going forward?
Despite an incredibly efficient rookie season, the Dolphins have given fantasy managers plenty of reason to worry that Acchane might not see a significant uptick in his workload. One of the concerns about the former Texas A&M star as a draft prospect was that he was undersized, which is understandable considering his rookie season was plagued by a shoulder sprain and a nagging knee injury.
Earlier this offseason, the Dolphins signed Raheem Mostert to a new, two-year contract worth up to $9.075 million and also traded a 2025 third-round pick in this year's draft to select Tennessee running back Jalen Wright. The Dolphins backfield will have two equally speedy players competing for touches, but Acchane will be at a disadvantage with the heavy workload, as both players already played behind Mostert when healthy.
Mostert has recorded 10 or more rushing attempts in all but three of his 16 games in 2023, while Acchane has only managed that mark five times. There's no doubt he has great potential and a chance to be efficient going forward, but it's hard to justify his current average draft position as a RB9 (average second-round pick).
Derrick Henry became just the fifth player in NFL history to score 300-plus fantasy points at age 30.
The Baltimore Ravens have officially teamed up with Lamar Jackson after signing 30-year-old veteran Derrick Henry to a two-year, $16 million contract. Over the past three seasons, the pair have combined for 4,305 rushing yards, 48 rushing touchdowns, 270 missed tackles and 171 explosive rushing attempts, with both players earning rushing ratings above 90.0 in that span.
Henry and Jackson form arguably the best QB-RB rushing duo in the league, and while some fantasy managers may be skeptical of Henry's production given his age and the fact that he ranks second among active running backs in career touches, he still has a lot of potential.
At age 29, Henry recorded the second-highest rushing grade of his career (86.8), ranked in the top five among running backs with 0.43 fantasy points per snap and ranked in the top 10 in yards per attempt after contact. His finishing as the RB10 in 2023 is even more impressive when you consider his age and the fact that he played in a below-average Titans offense.
There are four running backs in NFL history who have recorded 300-plus point seasons by age 30 (or older): Priest Holmes (2003), Tiki Barber (2005), Charlie Garner (2002) and Walter Payton (1984, 1985). Don't be surprised if Henry becomes the fifth.
With limited competition, Henry should be able to get all the work he can handle in 2023.
Diontaie Johnson is a WR2 (or better) in fantasy football in 2024.
This offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers made waves when they announced they had traded veteran wide receiver Diontay Johnson to the Carolina Panthers.
Johnson isn't known for efficiency, but he's coming off a season in which he set career-highs in receiving grade (79.1), yards per reception (13.9) and yards per route run (1.90). His 5.2 yards after the catch per reception were the second-highest of his career, as was his passer rating of 99.2 when targeted.
Unfortunately, Johnson has spent the majority of his career playing alongside an aging Ben Roethlisberger and a rotation that included Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph.
There's no guarantee he'll be in a better position going forward, but the fact that he's averaging over 10 fantasy points per game (including a career-high 17 fantasy points per game in 2021) should be encouraging in terms of both his minimum and maximum lines going forward.
The Panthers have done a good job of giving second-year quarterback Bryce Young more weapons than he had as a rookie, but there's no question that Johnson is the one most likely to lead this team in targets.
Dalton Kinkaid was named 1st overall TE.
All the attention has been on rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman, but don't let his rhetoric detract from the real story of this offense: the chances of a breakout season for second-year tight end Dalton Kinkaid.
The Bills selected Kinkaid with the 25th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He's an undersized tight end prospect with solid handles and fluidity as a route runner and a proven centerpiece in Utah's passing game. He showed flashes of those traits as a rookie and was named TE11 in fantasy football in 2023.
Kinkaid has some room to grow in terms of efficiency heading into Year 2, but he'll certainly get plenty of opportunities to do so in a good offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the league throwing the ball to him.
Stefon Diggs accounted for 702 of Josh Allen's 2,696 targets over the past four seasons. Gabe Davis also left the team in free agency, but accounted for Allen's 323 targets over that same span, meaning the second-year tight end has plenty of chances to make an impact.
Kinkaid ranked second on the team behind Diggs with a 19.6% target rate on route runs, which is encouraging.
With the Bills' reshuffling of receivers this offseason, it's entirely possible that Kinkaid could lead the team in targets, and at a position as volatile as tight end, volume could ultimately be the key to success.
